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William Lyon Homes: Rare Stock Bounce

Earnings Note: 30 Oct 2018, 9:40 PM ET - WLH delivered solid results and encouraging comments despite the recent slowdown in order trends in core markets of Seattle and California.  The company maintains a deleveraging focus where the majority of free cash flow will be directed.

Homebuilding: Conference Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 03 Oct 2018, 4:13 AM ET - We present some takeaways from the IMN Real Estate Private Equity Forum on Land & Homebuilding Conference in Las Vegas last week.   

William Lyon Homes: Colorado Shines

Earnings Note: 31 Jul 2018, 8:08 PM ET - WLH results were constructive with continued strong demand and order absorption trends in most markets.  Similar to peers there are many puts and takes on order trends including community openings/closeouts, buyer segments, and pricing.

Big Homebuilders: Going to the Source

Sector Analysis: 27 Jul 2018, 4:49 AM ET - With crosscurrents in the headlines around prices, mortgage rates, changing regional demand, and shifting product growth expectations, it still comes down to builder strategies on price and costs, profit margins, and inventory management. 

William Lyon: Setting 2020 Goals

Earnings Note: 09 May 2018, 3:43 AM ET - WLH reported strong demand trends in its legacy business during 1Q18 with orders up +16.2% and the orders absorption pace up ~+25% YoY. 

Homebuilders: Spring Showers or Flowers?

Sector Analysis: 24 Apr 2018, 4:24 AM ET - Homebuilder bonds were under pressure YTD18 as tight spreads, rising interest rates, and Fed tightening renewed fears of a slowdown and pressure on affordability. Fundamentals are still sound with leverage and liquidity in good shape. 

William Lyon Homes: In the Market

HY Note: 06 Mar 2018, 10:47 AM ET - WLH is in the market with a $350 mn offering of 5.5 nc 2.5 notes to help fund its purchase of RSI Communities and redeem the company’s $150 mn April 2019 notes.  

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

TPH and WLH: West Coast Strong

Earnings Note: 20 Feb 2018, 5:52 PM ET - West coast focused TPH and WLH both reported solid demand trends to end FY17.  Both indicated new orders remained strong in January and remain confident for FY18 despite the steady increase in mortgage rates since the beginning of the year.

William Lyon Homes: Upgraded at Moody's

Worth Watching: 29 Nov 2017, 10:02 AM ET - William Lyon Homes received a one notch upgrade at Moody's to B2 on its unsecured notes and the corporate family rating was also raised 1 notch to B2.   The outlook is stable.  Since initiating on WLH last fall (see William Lyon Homes: Initiatin ..

Housing and Taxes: Wrong Multiplier Effect

Strategy Analysis: 08 Nov 2017, 3:44 AM ET - As the Congress scrambles to find revenue for majority vote machinations, the clear and direct multiplier effects of housing-related growth is getting tempered to support the theoretical, indirect benefits of corporate and estate tax cuts.

William Lyon 3Q17: No Hurricane Effects Here

Earnings Note: 31 Oct 2017, 7:15 PM ET - WLH 3Q17 results continue the trend of positive operating fundamentals across the homebuilding market.  Deliveries, new orders and unit backlog were all up double digits in the quarter taking the stock up ~+11% on the day to a 52-week high.

William Lyon Homes: Upgraded at S&P

Worth Watching: 12 Oct 2017, 10:12 PM ET - William Lyon Homes received a two notch upgrade at S&P to B+ on its unsecured notes and the corporate credit rating was raised 1 notch to B.   The outlook is stable.  Since initiating on WLH last fall (see William Lyon Homes: Initiating Coverage ..

William Lyon 2Q17: Robust Volumes

Earnings Note: 07 Aug 2017, 8:37 PM ET - WLH posted strong 2Q17 numbers that reflected solid growth across the company's key housing markets.  Builders continue to have pricing power with WLH commenting it raised prices in ~75% of its communities. 

Housing: Mortgages, GSE Reform, Taxes

Strategy Analysis: 27 Jul 2017, 4:48 AM ET - Homebuilders are rolling along near capacity against the backdrop of Washington chaos while awaiting clarity on reform/deregulation in housing finance. The bigger macro variable for mortgage credit is existing homes and not builders.

US Strategy: Housing, Leverage, Quality

Strategy Analysis: 26 Jul 2017, 6:02 AM ET - We provide a top-down, summary look at the aggregate housing sector balance sheet, asset quality, and default metrics. The much-improved home equity profile of mortgaged properties and supply-demand balance does not signal trouble.

Homebuilding: Starts, Permits Fortify Story

Strategy Analysis: 20 Jul 2017, 5:27 AM ET - June home starts (+8.3%) and permits (+7.4%) rebounded from a weak May as the trajectory for the homebuilding markets remains positive with a handful of builders set to report results next week.  Slow growth remains the rolling trend. 

March 2017: Case-Shiller Home Prices

Worth Watching: 30 May 2017, 1:07 PM ET - March 2017 home prices continued to post gains with the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index continuing to post new highs while the 20-city index remains 5.4% below its peak.   Case-Shiller Home Price indexes continued to post gains in March ..

Homebuilding Snapshot: April Showers…?

Strategy Analysis: 16 May 2017, 1:59 PM ET - Headline April home construction numbers experienced a sequential stall but parsing the multi-family versus single-family and seasonal influences shows  the trajectory for homebuilders remains positive.

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