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US Inflation: Goods Inflation Is Back

Sector Analysis: 12 Dec 2018, 11:57 PM ET - Headline and core indexes both increased in line with expectations.  We highlight the first bought of YoY core goods inflation since 2016 and anecdotes of margin pressure from the most recent Beige Book.

IG European Consumer: 2019 Outlook Opinion Changes

Sector Outlook: 11 Dec 2018, 9:03 PM ET - We set out more on our six opinion changes in European food & beverage/HPC and retail for 2019, plus the initiation of Molson Coors, and give specific bond recommendations in order to execute them. 

US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

IG European Consumer 2019: Known Unknowns

Sector Outlook: 06 Dec 2018, 10:03 PM ET - We have updated our frameworks for assessing RV in our high grade/crossover European food & bev/HPC and retail names for 2019, the 500th anniversary of the death of Leonardo da Vinci. We also initiate coverage on Molson Coors.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.
Focused

Walmart 3Q18: More US Traffic Gains

Worth Watching: 16 Nov 2018, 6:20 AM ET - Walmart 3Q18: Walmart (A2/A) reported a net sales increase of 1.4% (+2.4% constant currency) with domestic comps up 3.4% ex-fuel. Gross margin saw 20bps of compression to 24.8% as the company continues price investments and transportation costs ..

Undoing a J. Screwing: Retail Fraudulent Transfers

HY Note: 14 Nov 2018, 4:18 AM ET - We examine state and federal bankruptcy fraudulent transfer laws that may allow creditors to recover in the event a debtor has transferred assets to the detriment of creditors, with a particular focus on retail situations. 

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

Synchrony & Walmart: Bad Blood Boiling Over?

IG Note: 02 Nov 2018, 3:04 PM ET - Walmart sued Synchrony, alleging breach of contract in a heavily redacted filing as the two sides tussle over what to do with the legacy loan book ahead of Capital One taking over as issuer. 

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.

September 2018 US Retail Sales

Strategy Analysis: 16 Oct 2018, 5:15 AM ET - September retail sales came up a bit short of expectations, with some weather/storm impact likely a factor. A MoM slowdown in restaurants was a big factor in the miss, although the setback comes after multiple months of above-trend growth.

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

US Employment: 3.0% Wage Growth on the Horizon

Strategy Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 12:24 PM ET - September nonfarm payrolls disappointed on the headline number, but under the surface, the report was solid.  Wages posted another strong gain and are just one tick away from the 3.0% YoY milestone.

US IG Chart of the Day: Largest Issuer Curves

Strategy Analysis: 03 Oct 2018, 10:33 AM ET - Comcast's mega-deal this week prompted us to take a look at the spread curve for the largest issuers in the IG Index. T, GM, and Pemex have the steepest curves, while the A-rated names have much flatter structures. 

US Income & Spending: Consumption Stays On Track

Strategy Analysis: 01 Oct 2018, 6:11 AM ET - The August income & spending report contained another solid reading for consumer spending, continued income growth, and modest inflation. We dig into the pricing environment for a few discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Trade War Dispatch

Strategy Analysis: 21 Sep 2018, 12:03 AM ET - With this week's announcement that the US will be initiating a $200bn round of tariffs on imports from China, we provide a condensed breakdown of the details, as well as some initial thoughts on their impact.

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