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Big Homebuilders: Going to the Source

Sector Analysis: 27 Jul 2018, 4:49 AM ET - With crosscurrents in the headlines around prices, mortgage rates, changing regional demand, and shifting product growth expectations, it still comes down to builder strategies on price and costs, profit margins, and inventory management. 

March 2018 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 01 Apr 2018, 9:44 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the twenty-two company recommendation changes made on North American companies during the month of March.
Focused

USG: Rejects Bid from Knauf, But Is in Play

Worth Watching: 26 Mar 2018, 10:33 PM ET - USG (Ba1/BB+) has today rejected a $5.9 bn ($42 per share) takeover bid from the privately owned German wallboard, cement and building materials group Knauf. This news was disclosed in a filing from Berkshire Hathaway, the Warren Buffet control ..

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

US Constructn Outlook: Kingdom for an (Infra) Bill

Sector Outlook: 23 Jan 2018, 9:56 PM ET - In the second of our Global Building Materials and Construction Outlook series, we examine the prospects for the US Construction Market in 2018 after a year that promised much but delivered somewhat less.
Focused

USG: Cost Headwinds Persist, 3Q17 as Expected

Earnings Note: 30 Oct 2017, 7:38 PM ET - USG's 3Q17 performance was very much in line with expectations. 
Focused

Spotlight on USG: Review of YTD and 3Q17 Preview

Company Spotlight: 04 Oct 2017, 6:01 AM ET - On balance we retain our current Underperform on USG and would look for a better entry point into the credit either after the 3Q17 results or in the run-up to the FY17 financials early in 2018.

Sherwin Williams: Disappointing 2Q17 Post-Valspar

Earnings Note: 25 Jul 2017, 3:43 PM ET - This was an underwhelming 1st quarter post-Valspar, with a headline profit miss, margin dilution, sharply downgraded FY17 guidance and the expected rise in leverage. 

US IG Sector Recs: A Very "In Line" April

Sector Weightings: 09 May 2017, 5:22 AM ET - After a weak March the IG index returned to positive territory, but most sectors reported excess return within +/- 5bp of the overall index. We discuss performance and update our sector recommendations. 

US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017

Sector Weightings: 08 May 2017, 11:18 PM ET - Our US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017 includes spread, return and attribution data for many of the Level 3 and Level 4 sectors of the BAML Index.  We look at both monthly and year-to-date performance. 

Sector Update March 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 10 Apr 2017, 8:20 PM ET - The Industrials sector largely matched the widening seen in the IG Corp ate index, though significantly underperformed on an excess return basis. We continue to hold a largely negative view on the sector entering 2Q17.

Homebuilding Snapshot: Prices Tell a Story

Strategy Analysis: 23 Mar 2017, 3:17 PM ET - We frame the trend line in new home vs. existing home sales and the wider gap between median and average prices for new homes.  The low end is picking up, but the $500K+ and $750K+ segment is holding in.  

Sector Update February 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 12 Mar 2017, 8:10 PM ET - February was a mixed month for Industrials sub-sectors, however aggregate excess return slightly outperformed the IG index. We also provide a summary of Industrials monthly IG supply and US Manufacturing ISM in our report.

Trump, Trade, Germany, and the EU

Strategy Analysis: 08 Mar 2017, 11:15 PM ET - The Trump team focuses on a bilateral deal with Germany distinct from the EU and sets the stage for more tension. We frame the US-Germany trade deficit for 2016 at the industry level.  Trade edges ahead of the Fed as a risk variable?

February 2017 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 28 Feb 2017, 9:00 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the forty-two company recommendation changes made on US companies during the month of February.

US Taxes: Interest Deductibility, Par Call Fear

Sector Analysis: 27 Feb 2017, 3:42 PM ET - We look into recent inquiries on interest deductibility issues and redemption risk.  Finding special tax redemption provisions can be a needles-and-haystacks exercise. The good news is "tailored" interest deduction language is hard to find.

Homebuilder Snapshot: High Price Crowd Weighs In

Sector Analysis: 23 Feb 2017, 5:59 AM ET - Strong existing home sales came on the same day that Toll Brothers, TRI Pointe, and William Lyon weighed in from their perch as the three priciest homebuilders in our universe based on ASPs.  The guidance was steady and confident.

Sector Update January 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 09 Feb 2017, 8:14 PM ET - Within the Industrials sector, only Automotives were able to modestly outperform the US Corp index. After this run, coupled with fundamental concerns, we downgrade our rec on Autos to Underperform.  

Global Building Materials Outlook 2017

Sector Outlook: 08 Feb 2017, 11:44 PM ET - In the final part of our Global Construction and Building Materials Outlook series, we outline our expectations for event risk, credit metrics and bond issuance, and review our Relative Value Recs on both a sector and single name basis. 

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