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Focused

TriPointe: Grinding it Out

Earnings Note: 24 Oct 2018, 8:27 PM ET - TPH reported solid numbers and improved margins but there was a noticeable slowdown in select markets.  New orders were down -18% YoY.  TPH is tweaking product offerings and offering incentives where necessary to stimulate buyer demand.

Homebuilding: Conference Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 03 Oct 2018, 4:13 AM ET - We present some takeaways from the IMN Real Estate Private Equity Forum on Land & Homebuilding Conference in Las Vegas last week.   
Focused

TRI Pointe: Focused on Profitability

Earnings Note: 27 Jul 2018, 5:20 PM ET - TPH reported strong revenue growth, profitability and new order ASP in the quarter which was offset by the fixation on a decline in new orders and a slowing order absorption pace.  We remain at market perform.    

Big Homebuilders: Going to the Source

Sector Analysis: 27 Jul 2018, 4:49 AM ET - With crosscurrents in the headlines around prices, mortgage rates, changing regional demand, and shifting product growth expectations, it still comes down to builder strategies on price and costs, profit margins, and inventory management. 
Focused

TRI Pointe: California, No Signs of Slowdown

Earnings Note: 25 Apr 2018, 3:25 PM ET - TPH +12.2% new order growth in 1Q18 continues the positive trend line for builders. Operating results were strong as gross margin beat expectations and profit improved substantially. 
Focused

Homebuilders: Spring Showers or Flowers?

Sector Analysis: 24 Apr 2018, 4:24 AM ET - Homebuilder bonds were under pressure YTD18 as tight spreads, rising interest rates, and Fed tightening renewed fears of a slowdown and pressure on affordability. Fundamentals are still sound with leverage and liquidity in good shape. 

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

TPH and WLH: West Coast Strong

Earnings Note: 20 Feb 2018, 5:52 PM ET - West coast focused TPH and WLH both reported solid demand trends to end FY17.  Both indicated new orders remained strong in January and remain confident for FY18 despite the steady increase in mortgage rates since the beginning of the year.
Focused

Housing and Taxes: Wrong Multiplier Effect

Strategy Analysis: 08 Nov 2017, 3:44 AM ET - As the Congress scrambles to find revenue for majority vote machinations, the clear and direct multiplier effects of housing-related growth is getting tempered to support the theoretical, indirect benefits of corporate and estate tax cuts.
Focused

TRI Pointe: California in Focus

Earnings Note: 25 Oct 2017, 9:33 PM ET - TPH is the latest homebuilder to report strong demand trends as new orders increased +36% in 3Q17 driven by a +25% increase in order absorption pace.  CA was especially strong where TPH maintains a large land position. 
Focused

Housing: Mortgages, GSE Reform, Taxes

Strategy Analysis: 27 Jul 2017, 4:48 AM ET - Homebuilders are rolling along near capacity against the backdrop of Washington chaos while awaiting clarity on reform/deregulation in housing finance. The bigger macro variable for mortgage credit is existing homes and not builders.
Focused

DHI and TPH: Solid Demand Differing Price Points

Earnings Note: 26 Jul 2017, 9:01 PM ET - DHI and TPH both reported solid demand trends in their quarterly results. With a ~$240K difference in ASP between the two, the solid results underscore broad market strength across product segments.
Focused

US Strategy: Housing, Leverage, Quality

Strategy Analysis: 26 Jul 2017, 6:02 AM ET - We provide a top-down, summary look at the aggregate housing sector balance sheet, asset quality, and default metrics. The much-improved home equity profile of mortgaged properties and supply-demand balance does not signal trouble.

Homebuilding: Starts, Permits Fortify Story

Strategy Analysis: 20 Jul 2017, 5:27 AM ET - June home starts (+8.3%) and permits (+7.4%) rebounded from a weak May as the trajectory for the homebuilding markets remains positive with a handful of builders set to report results next week.  Slow growth remains the rolling trend. 

March 2017: Case-Shiller Home Prices

Worth Watching: 30 May 2017, 1:07 PM ET - March 2017 home prices continued to post gains with the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index continuing to post new highs while the 20-city index remains 5.4% below its peak.   Case-Shiller Home Price indexes continued to post gains in March ..

Homebuilding Snapshot: April Showers…?

Strategy Analysis: 16 May 2017, 1:59 PM ET - Headline April home construction numbers experienced a sequential stall but parsing the multi-family versus single-family and seasonal influences shows  the trajectory for homebuilders remains positive.

US IG Sector Recs: A Very "In Line" April

Sector Weightings: 09 May 2017, 5:22 AM ET - After a weak March the IG index returned to positive territory, but most sectors reported excess return within +/- 5bp of the overall index. We discuss performance and update our sector recommendations. 

US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017

Sector Weightings: 08 May 2017, 11:18 PM ET - Our US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017 includes spread, return and attribution data for many of the Level 3 and Level 4 sectors of the BAML Index.  We look at both monthly and year-to-date performance. 
Focused

TPH 1Q17: Strong Order Growth Drives Story

Earnings Note: 26 Apr 2017, 9:21 PM ET - TPH reported a strong 1Q17 with new home orders up +13.1% YoY driven by stronger order growth in CA which was up +39% YoY.  TPH lot position in CA ended the quarter at roughly 10 years supply. 

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