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Toll Brothers: Strong Profitability, Slowing Order

Earnings Note: 05 Dec 2018, 12:20 PM ET - TOL reported strong operating and profitability metrics for the quarter and year but new order trends were down -13.3% and remains a focus for investors seeking a cyclical read.  Liquidity and balance sheet metrics remain strong.

Homebuilding: Conference Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 03 Oct 2018, 4:13 AM ET - We present some takeaways from the IMN Real Estate Private Equity Forum on Land & Homebuilding Conference in Las Vegas last week.   

Toll Brothers: Open for Business

Earnings Note: 21 Aug 2018, 5:16 PM ET - TOL’s strong 3Q18 numbers beat market expectations with the headline being the +7% in new order growth driven entirely by July (May and June were down YoY).  The stock was up ~14% as the market rechecked its premises.     

Big Homebuilders: Going to the Source

Sector Analysis: 27 Jul 2018, 4:49 AM ET - With crosscurrents in the headlines around prices, mortgage rates, changing regional demand, and shifting product growth expectations, it still comes down to builder strategies on price and costs, profit margins, and inventory management. 

Toll Brothers: Open House NYC

Earnings Note: 22 May 2018, 10:14 PM ET - TOL reported weak gross margins in 2Q18 and lower community count expectations for FY18 which crushed the equity at -9.5%. Underlying fundamentals remain solid and demand trends strong with the order absorption pace up +16% in 2Q18.  

Homebuilders: Spring Showers or Flowers?

Sector Analysis: 24 Apr 2018, 4:24 AM ET - Homebuilder bonds were under pressure YTD18 as tight spreads, rising interest rates, and Fed tightening renewed fears of a slowdown and pressure on affordability. Fundamentals are still sound with leverage and liquidity in good shape. 

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Toll Brothers: No Signs of Buyer Fatigue

Earnings Note: 27 Feb 2018, 10:02 PM ET - In the first quarter since tax reform was enacted in December Toll delivered a strong result with new orders increasing sequentially throughout 1Q18 as demand trends were strongest in its two highest priced markets of CA and NYC.  

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

Toll Brothers: In the Market

HY Note: 17 Jan 2018, 12:14 PM ET - Toll is in the market with a $300 mn offering of 10-year notes.  We are seeing IPT in the 4.5% - 4.625% area which equates to ~+195 to ~+208 to the 10-year UST. 

Toll Brothers: Demand Trends Steady

Earnings Note: 06 Dec 2017, 9:31 PM ET - TOL posted solid operational improvements in FY17 as the company continues to benefit from strong housing market demand even at its higher luxury focused price points.  

Housing and Taxes: Wrong Multiplier Effect

Strategy Analysis: 08 Nov 2017, 3:44 AM ET - As the Congress scrambles to find revenue for majority vote machinations, the clear and direct multiplier effects of housing-related growth is getting tempered to support the theoretical, indirect benefits of corporate and estate tax cuts.

Housing: Mortgages, GSE Reform, Taxes

Strategy Analysis: 27 Jul 2017, 4:48 AM ET - Homebuilders are rolling along near capacity against the backdrop of Washington chaos while awaiting clarity on reform/deregulation in housing finance. The bigger macro variable for mortgage credit is existing homes and not builders.

US Strategy: Housing, Leverage, Quality

Strategy Analysis: 26 Jul 2017, 6:02 AM ET - We provide a top-down, summary look at the aggregate housing sector balance sheet, asset quality, and default metrics. The much-improved home equity profile of mortgaged properties and supply-demand balance does not signal trouble.

Homebuilding: Starts, Permits Fortify Story

Strategy Analysis: 20 Jul 2017, 5:27 AM ET - June home starts (+8.3%) and permits (+7.4%) rebounded from a weak May as the trajectory for the homebuilding markets remains positive with a handful of builders set to report results next week.  Slow growth remains the rolling trend. 

Toll Brothers: In the Market with 10-year Tap

HY Note: 07 Jun 2017, 11:13 AM ET - Toll Brothers joins the list of homebuilders in the market to issue debt this week. TOL offering a $100 mn  add-on the its existing  4.875% March 2027.

March 2017: Case-Shiller Home Prices

Worth Watching: 30 May 2017, 1:07 PM ET - March 2017 home prices continued to post gains with the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index continuing to post new highs while the 20-city index remains 5.4% below its peak.   Case-Shiller Home Price indexes continued to post gains in March ..

Toll Brothers: Spring Season Best Since Crisis

Earnings Note: 23 May 2017, 1:06 PM ET - Luxury builder Toll Brothers reported strong 2Q17 numbers with homes delivered up +25.6%, new orders up +26% and unit backlog up +21.8% . Demand remains strong even at TOL's high price points. 

Homebuilding Snapshot: April Showers…?

Strategy Analysis: 16 May 2017, 1:59 PM ET - Headline April home construction numbers experienced a sequential stall but parsing the multi-family versus single-family and seasonal influences shows  the trajectory for homebuilders remains positive.

US IG Sector Recs: A Very "In Line" April

Sector Weightings: 09 May 2017, 5:22 AM ET - After a weak March the IG index returned to positive territory, but most sectors reported excess return within +/- 5bp of the overall index. We discuss performance and update our sector recommendations. 

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