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Thomas Cook FY18: Fear Of Flying

Earnings Note: 10 Dec 2018, 11:47 PM ET - Is the Thomas Cook operating model broken? We take a closer look at strategy, structure, liquidity and valuation. Despite the brutal sell-off, and the airline backstop, we retain a Hold ahead of the February update.

Sterling Weekly: Not a great November

Strategy Analysis: 02 Dec 2018, 10:09 PM ET - November ended as the worst month for sterling IG credit YTD. The BOE published its Brexit-scenario analysis. The yield on the 10-year bond fell by 2 bp to 1.364%.

November 2018 Europe Company Recommendation Change

Euro Recommendation Changes: 02 Dec 2018, 9:51 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the twenty-two companies recommendation changes made on European companies during the month of November.
Focused

Thomas Cook: Brace! Brace!

Worth Watching: 27 Nov 2018, 8:52 PM ET - Thomas Cook delivered a brutal blow to its credibility with a third profit downgrade since mid-Summer, compounding a warning a week before its FY end in September and previously in July. Up until now, the Summer weather had been identified as the ..

September 2018 Euro Company Recommendation Changes

Euro Recommendation Changes: 30 Sep 2018, 9:26 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the eleven companies recommendation changes made on European companies during the month of September.
Focused

Thomas Cook: Trading Update - Carry On Baggage

HY Note: 24 Sep 2018, 10:21 PM ET - Blip or start of a downward trend? The weather was the main culprit, but competitors' discounting did the damage and the CFO's exit throws up more questions. The turnaround story is messy but it always was; fundamentally little has changed.

August 2018 Europe Company Recommendation Changes

Euro Recommendation Changes: 02 Sep 2018, 9:49 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the fourteen companies recommendation changes made on European companies during the month of August.
Focused

Thomas Cook F3Q18: A Bit Sunburnt

HY Note: 31 Jul 2018, 10:20 PM ET - The heatwave has interrupted operating momentum and whilst the airline is another option, it does not seem to be a near term event. A more cautious outlook means a near-term ratings upgrade is less likely impacting rel val calculations.

Euro HY Conference 2018: Relative Value Panel

Transcript: 27 Jun 2018, 9:21 PM ET - What is the biggest threat to European HY credit: Italy, Brexit, EM, commodities, tech or Donald Trump? 
Focused

Thomas Cook: 1H18 - Glamorous Unglamorous

Worth Watching: 18 May 2018, 10:25 AM ET - Thomas Cook (B1/B+/BB-): That Thomas Cook continues to operate in the "unglamorous" tour-operator segment of the travel services market is unquestionable. There is a world of difference, however, between being an old style tour operator and bein ..
Focused

Thomas Cook: 1Q18 - Roman Holiday

Worth Watching: 08 Feb 2018, 9:31 AM ET - Thomas Cook (B1/B+/BB-), where we have a Buy recommendation, today reported its 1Q18 trading update in the new 'short-format' that the company has adopted for its first and third quarters going forward. This format, replicates that used for pre- ..

Euro HY Consumer Outlook 2018

Sector Outlook: 16 Jan 2018, 9:00 PM ET - We take a look at the key themes in play in evaluating prospects in the Euro HY Consumer space and aim to provide a fundamental framework to analyse available investment options within our coverage universe.
Focused

Thomas Cook’s New €400 mn SNs: Buy at IPT

HY Note: 29 Nov 2017, 8:59 AM ET - Thomas Cook (B1/B /BB-) is coming to market with a new €400 mn Senior bond with a 5.5yr maturity (NC2). At the IPT of 4.00%~4.25% we would be Buyers of the TCGLN bonds given we continue to like the company on a fundamental basis.
Focused

Thomas Cook FY17: Cooking Up a Feast

Earnings Note: 22 Nov 2017, 8:56 PM ET - Thomas Cook reported a strong set of results underpinned by a return to positive LFLs, a flat EBIT margin and robust cash flow generation all driving net debt to a historical low. We  feel there's enough on the table to take comfort from.

European Consumer: 2017 YTD New IG Issuance

Sector Outlook: 28 Sep 2017, 11:41 PM ET - New issuance in IG European food & bev/HPC, a consolidating sector, is down year to date on 2016 whereas new issuance in IG European retail, a sector attempting deleverage, is up.   
Focused

Thomas Cook: Expedia-ting an Alliance

Worth Watching: 14 Sep 2017, 6:51 AM ET - Thomas Cook (B1): After a somewhat turbulent week at Thomas Cook with news in the press reporting complaints from customers about a lack of information and access to resort reps during the Irma hurricane disaster (the company evacuated more than ..
Focused

Thomas Cook: F3Q17 - Beach Body Ready

Worth Watching: 27 Jul 2017, 11:38 AM ET - Thomas Cook 's (B1/B) F3Q17 results attest to management's good work with the soft tone in margins being almost anecdotal in a quarter where sales were up mid-double digits, profits expanded at a high single-digit multiple and cash flow generat ..

Euro HY Conference 2017: Travel Services Transcript

Transcript: 20 Jun 2017, 7:47 PM ET - In this article, we transcribe our Travel Services presentation for CreditSights' Euro High Yield Conference, in which we laid out our views on the European Travel Services space and took a closer look at Travelex.
Focused

Thomas Cook F1H17: Don’t Just Book It, Buy It

Earnings Note: 19 May 2017, 6:12 AM ET - Despite 1H being seasonally negative, we have seen significant progress from the “New Operating Model” and the Condor turnaround. Supportive fundamentals and positive guidance underpin our Buy recommendation on TCGLN 21s & 22s.
Focused

Thomas Cook: F2Q17 Trading Update

Worth Watching: 28 Mar 2017, 7:37 PM ET - Thomas Cook (B1/B), where we have a Buy recommendation, reported its F2Q17 pre-close trading update with almost final numbers for its Winter Programme largely in line with prior year's and the Summer Programme progressing at a good pace as anti ..

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