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US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.

Healthcare: 3Q18 Earnings Recap

Sector Analysis: 25 Nov 2018, 11:27 PM ET - In this note, we recap 3Q18 earnings results for the health insurers, medical device makers and pharmaceutical companies within our IG coverage universe.

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.

Healthcare: ACA Market May be Further Pressured

Sector Outlook: 25 Oct 2018, 4:19 AM ET - The White House continues to amend the ACA and intends to give States the option of allowing insurers to provide less comprehensive coverage at a lower cost. For individuals who remain in ACA-compliant plans, this may mean higher premiums.
Focused

Thermo Fisher 3Q18: Nearing the Leverage Trough

Earnings Note: 24 Oct 2018, 8:28 PM ET - Although TMO's credit metrics continued to improve,  we fully expect the company to eventually shift its sights back toward M&A. We affirm our Underperform recommendation on the name.

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

US Employment: 3.0% Wage Growth on the Horizon

Strategy Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 12:24 PM ET - September nonfarm payrolls disappointed on the headline number, but under the surface, the report was solid.  Wages posted another strong gain and are just one tick away from the 3.0% YoY milestone.

US Income & Spending: Consumption Stays On Track

Strategy Analysis: 01 Oct 2018, 6:11 AM ET - The August income & spending report contained another solid reading for consumer spending, continued income growth, and modest inflation. We dig into the pricing environment for a few discretionary spending categories.

US Employment: Finally, A Wage Growth Surprise

Strategy Analysis: 07 Sep 2018, 4:06 PM ET - The August employment report contained the long-awaited breakout in wage growth to a new cycle high. Payroll growth was also solid, and we highlight our outlook for it going forward.

Cigna: Issuing ~$23.5 bn to Fund ESRX Deal

IG Note: 06 Sep 2018, 11:25 AM ET - CI is in the market with a 10-part ~$23.5 bn offering of new debt to fund the acquisition of Express Scripts. We are shifting our recommendation on both Cigna and Express Scripts to Outperform.

Pharma: 1H18 Capital Allocation Review

Sector Analysis: 04 Sep 2018, 9:27 PM ET - In this note, we review capital allocation in the Pharma sector through 1H18. We focus primarily on M&A trends, shareholder rewards, and new issuance activity. We also touch on leverage metrics in the sector versus historical periods.

US Income & Spending: Inflation Momentum Fading?

Strategy Analysis: 30 Aug 2018, 2:43 PM ET - July consumer spending and income increased largely as expected, providing a solid start to 3Q spending. The core PCE deflator hit the Fed’s 2.0% target. We highlight that the recent inflation data have cooled some from earlier this year.

Healthcare: 2Q18 Earnings Recap

Sector Analysis: 15 Aug 2018, 9:59 PM ET - In this note, we recap 2Q18 earnings results in US Healthcare with a focus on the Health Insurers, Medical Device manufacturers and Pharmaceutical companies.
Focused

Thermo Fisher: Issues €600 million of FRNs

Worth Watching: 08 Aug 2018, 9:38 PM ET - Thermo Fisher (TMO: Baa2/BBB+) issued €600 million of senior unsecured floating rate notes that will mature on August 7th, 2020. TMO applied the proceeds toward the repayment of the €600 million of floating rate notes maturing on August 9th, 2 ..

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