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Taylor Morrison: No Bond Deal

Earnings Note: 31 Oct 2018, 3:21 PM ET - TMHC reported solid order trends in 3Q18 bucking recent trends reported by peers but acknowledged slowing in select markets. Given equity market weakness, the company followed some peers and did share repurchases.  

Homebuilding: Conference Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 03 Oct 2018, 4:13 AM ET - We present some takeaways from the IMN Real Estate Private Equity Forum on Land & Homebuilding Conference in Las Vegas last week.   
Focused

Taylor Morrison: Stable Trends

Earnings Note: 01 Aug 2018, 3:31 PM ET - TMHC reiterated FY18 guidance for home closings, its order absorption rate and ending community count. Demand trends and credit quality are stable.  The company's acquisition of AV Homes is on schedule to close in September/October.

Big Homebuilders: Going to the Source

Sector Analysis: 27 Jul 2018, 4:49 AM ET - With crosscurrents in the headlines around prices, mortgage rates, changing regional demand, and shifting product growth expectations, it still comes down to builder strategies on price and costs, profit margins, and inventory management. 
Focused

Taylor Morrison: Getting in on M&A

HY Note: 11 Jun 2018, 11:41 AM ET - Taylor Morrison announced plans to acquire AV Homes in an $963 mn transaction with a 60%/40% mix of cash and equity.  The company anticipates tapping the debt markets opportunistically to help fund the cash portion of the deal.   
Focused

Taylor Morrison: Misses Closings, Trends Stable

Earnings Note: 02 May 2018, 3:40 PM ET - TMHC reported a slight miss for home closings in 1Q18 attributed to home start delays. FY18 guidance was reiterated, demand trends are stable, and the credit profile is solid.  
Focused

Homebuilders: Spring Showers or Flowers?

Sector Analysis: 24 Apr 2018, 4:24 AM ET - Homebuilder bonds were under pressure YTD18 as tight spreads, rising interest rates, and Fed tightening renewed fears of a slowdown and pressure on affordability. Fundamentals are still sound with leverage and liquidity in good shape. 

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 
Focused

Taylor Morrison: Refi Potential

Earnings Note: 08 Feb 2018, 11:19 AM ET - Taylor Morrison continues to post solid operating results across its 20 markets.  There is potential opportunity for the company to tap the markets and refi its 5.25% of 2021 notes when the call price steps down in April. 
Focused

Housing and Taxes: Wrong Multiplier Effect

Strategy Analysis: 08 Nov 2017, 3:44 AM ET - As the Congress scrambles to find revenue for majority vote machinations, the clear and direct multiplier effects of housing-related growth is getting tempered to support the theoretical, indirect benefits of corporate and estate tax cuts.
Focused

Taylor Morrison: PE Cashing Out

Earnings Note: 02 Aug 2017, 8:22 PM ET - TMHC reported favorable YoY variances for homes sold, new orders and unit backlog.   Growth was strongest at the two ends of the market in entry level and luxury reinforcing the narrative that demand remains strong across all buyer segments
Focused

Housing: Mortgages, GSE Reform, Taxes

Strategy Analysis: 27 Jul 2017, 4:48 AM ET - Homebuilders are rolling along near capacity against the backdrop of Washington chaos while awaiting clarity on reform/deregulation in housing finance. The bigger macro variable for mortgage credit is existing homes and not builders.
Focused

US Strategy: Housing, Leverage, Quality

Strategy Analysis: 26 Jul 2017, 6:02 AM ET - We provide a top-down, summary look at the aggregate housing sector balance sheet, asset quality, and default metrics. The much-improved home equity profile of mortgaged properties and supply-demand balance does not signal trouble.

Homebuilding: Starts, Permits Fortify Story

Strategy Analysis: 20 Jul 2017, 5:27 AM ET - June home starts (+8.3%) and permits (+7.4%) rebounded from a weak May as the trajectory for the homebuilding markets remains positive with a handful of builders set to report results next week.  Slow growth remains the rolling trend. 

March 2017: Case-Shiller Home Prices

Worth Watching: 30 May 2017, 1:07 PM ET - March 2017 home prices continued to post gains with the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index continuing to post new highs while the 20-city index remains 5.4% below its peak.   Case-Shiller Home Price indexes continued to post gains in March ..

Homebuilding Snapshot: April Showers…?

Strategy Analysis: 16 May 2017, 1:59 PM ET - Headline April home construction numbers experienced a sequential stall but parsing the multi-family versus single-family and seasonal influences shows  the trajectory for homebuilders remains positive.

US IG Sector Recs: A Very "In Line" April

Sector Weightings: 09 May 2017, 5:22 AM ET - After a weak March the IG index returned to positive territory, but most sectors reported excess return within +/- 5bp of the overall index. We discuss performance and update our sector recommendations. 

US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017

Sector Weightings: 08 May 2017, 11:18 PM ET - Our US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017 includes spread, return and attribution data for many of the Level 3 and Level 4 sectors of the BAML Index.  We look at both monthly and year-to-date performance. 

Homebuilder Snapshot: Residential Resilience

Strategy Analysis: 25 Apr 2017, 4:29 PM ET - The March new home sales numbers from the Census had another solid month of YoY and 2nd best month since the crisis as the start of spring selling season sends favorable cyclical signs and highlights pent-up demand.

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