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Oil & Gas: HY E&P Cash Flows at $50/bbl Oil

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:10 AM ET - We now see HY E&P 2019 cash flows coming in 24% lower than previously expected at our new $50/WTI price deck ($65/WTI old).  We expect to see a mix of capex cuts, divestitures and incremental borrowings next year.

Oil & Gas: Slashing Oil Outlook, Downgrading E&Ps

Sector Analysis: 26 Nov 2018, 4:48 AM ET - We believe the recent 33% drop in oil prices is likely to be just the first leg of a deeper decline.  We are reducing our 2019 oil price view and recalibrating our IG and HY E&P investment recommendations to a more defensive position.

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

HY Power: Calpine EBITDA Soaring w/ TX Heat

Company Analysis: 30 Jul 2018, 6:01 AM ET - We calculate the heat wave that hit TX in July combined with strong August forward power prices could add $450 million of EBITDA to Calpine’s $1.8-1.9 billion EBITDA run-rate of the last several years.

HY Power CLO Monitor: Secured Debt Update

Sector Analysis: 24 Jul 2018, 5:35 AM ET - We expect stable to improving secured leverage across the HY Power sector driven by a strong outlook for free cash flows as capex is minimal across the board. 

HY Power: TX Spark Spreads Continue to Climb

Worth Watching: 02 Jul 2018, 10:55 AM ET - HY Power - Spark spreads for the month of June finished mixed relative to last year's levels and closed higher in Texas / ERCOT (+12%), PJM West (+21%) and East (+4%) while falling significantly in Northern/Southern CA and New England. So far t ..

AES: Exits Eletropaulo Stake, Positive for CEMIG?

Worth Watching: 14 Jun 2018, 10:28 AM ET - AES (Ba2/BB+) announced it has officially exited its 17% stake in Eletropaulo (ELPL3: a Brazilian utility, no USD bonds) for $310 million and will use the proceeds to reduce parent level debt. We view the sale as another positive signal for AES ho ..

Utilities & Power: Trade Pub & Twitter Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 07 Jun 2018, 4:59 AM ET - We provide investors highlights from worthwhile stories we've read in trade publications and twitter over the last two weeks. 

FirstEnergy: Genco Bonds Rise on Coal/Nuke Bailout

Worth Watching: 03 Jun 2018, 10:10 PM ET - FirstEnergy subsidiary FirstEnergy Solutions (March bankruptcy) bonds rose three points to 53 after Bloomberg News reported President Trump has directed Energy Secretary Rick Perry to bailout certain coal and nuclear plants. The authority, accor ..

Power & Utilities: Gangbuster PJM Auction +83% YoY

Sector Weightings: 23 May 2018, 9:11 PM ET - PJM capacity auction prices rose 83% YoY, w/multiple new regions breaking out even higher. TLN bonds are likely most exposed to the upside. Positive for PEG, EXC, VST, CPN, and NRG. 

TerraForm: Buy, Brookfield Maintaining Control

Earnings Note: 03 May 2018, 10:09 PM ET - Buy TERP Bonds....We believe the Canadian clients get it and most of the American asset managers balk at TERPs leverage and aren't as familiar with Brookfield's sterling reputation on credit quality. 

NRG Energy: 3x Net Lev. on Track; Large M2M Gain

Company Analysis: 03 May 2018, 9:40 AM ET - NRG's 3x net leverage target is on track as investors brace for a record hot summer in TX that is not without significant operating risk. 

Transcanada: TCP Drops 29% on Distribution Cut

Worth Watching: 02 May 2018, 9:20 PM ET - Transcanada  (TRP: A3/BBB+) U.S. MLP, TC Pipelines, fell 29% on Wednesday after announcing a 35% distribution cut and is now down 53% in 2018.  The initial FERC announcement drove TCP equity down ~26%, which made equity funding unattractive, and ..

Crestwood 1Q18: Totally Committed to Being an MLP

Earnings Note: 01 May 2018, 11:14 AM ET - CEQP reported 1Q18 adjusted EBITDA of $102mn, up 12% YoY and below consensus estimates of $103mn, driven primarily by strong gathering and processing volume increases.  

SunPower: Pros Cons & Silver Lining, Bonds 77-80c

Company Spotlight: 19 Mar 2018, 5:35 AM ET - SunPower convertible bonds are down ~6-10 points since August '17 and its equity is down ~38% over the same period. Mgmt is trying to get an exemption from Trump's 30% tariff on solar panels and Total S.A credit support seems constructive

Vistra 4Q: Management Mentions IG Ratings!

Earnings Note: 26 Feb 2018, 1:17 PM ET - During the Q&A, VST management mentioned the potential for IG ratings after its 2.5x net leverage target is reached, likely in 2019.

Talen Energy: $500 MN Div. Ahead of EBITDA Decline

Worth Watching: 25 Feb 2018, 9:11 PM ET - Talen Energy  (B1/B+) announced a $500 million dividend that is troubling for bondholders as EBITDA is set to decline fairly significantly over the next two years and current leverage of 7x will increase. We don't have access to the dividend re ..

Calpine 10K Cut: New Secured Debt Scenario

10-K Cut: 20 Feb 2018, 4:23 AM ET - Calpine's recently filed 10K confirmed the merger is on track to close in 2Q so we stress tested the new secured debt covenant calculation based on the 4Q balance sheet. 

Yieldcos: The Strong Survive, PE Feast On The Weak

Sector Analysis: 13 Feb 2018, 5:01 AM ET - Two of five yieldcos we cover were taken over/under by private equity in a span of only one week. Should the weakly priced M&A deals be of concern to other yieldco investors? 

TerraForm Power: Buy On Dip $1.2bn De-Levering M&A

Company Analysis: 09 Feb 2018, 4:24 AM ET - Our thoughts on Brookfield/TerraForm Power's $1.2bn de-levering acquisition of Saeta Yield a Spanish yieldco. TERP has locked up 50% of SAY's shares and will tender for the rest. Leverage falls from 8.1x to 7.8x on the deal; reiterate Buy.

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