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US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.
Focused

ServiceMaster: Pests Back Under Control

Earnings Note: 06 Nov 2018, 6:17 PM ET - A lot of action occurred right after the 3Q18 date with the AHS (Frontdoor) spin, but the main event is now Terminix and the trend line is getting back on track with a stable balance sheet and better organic growth. 

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 
Focused

Frontdoor: Free to trade…and rise

HY Note: 10 Oct 2018, 4:36 AM ET - With Frontdoor now officially trading in the market since the start of the month, we provide a quick update on the hefty valuation and also what it means for ServiceMaster.

US Employment: 3.0% Wage Growth on the Horizon

Strategy Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 12:24 PM ET - September nonfarm payrolls disappointed on the headline number, but under the surface, the report was solid.  Wages posted another strong gain and are just one tick away from the 3.0% YoY milestone.

US Income & Spending: Consumption Stays On Track

Strategy Analysis: 01 Oct 2018, 6:11 AM ET - The August income & spending report contained another solid reading for consumer spending, continued income growth, and modest inflation. We dig into the pricing environment for a few discretionary spending categories.

US Employment: Finally, A Wage Growth Surprise

Strategy Analysis: 07 Sep 2018, 4:06 PM ET - The August employment report contained the long-awaited breakout in wage growth to a new cycle high. Payroll growth was also solid, and we highlight our outlook for it going forward.

August 2018 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 02 Sep 2018, 9:49 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the thirty company recommendation changes made on North American companies during the month of August.

US Income & Spending: Inflation Momentum Fading?

Strategy Analysis: 30 Aug 2018, 2:43 PM ET - July consumer spending and income increased largely as expected, providing a solid start to 3Q spending. The core PCE deflator hit the Fed’s 2.0% target. We highlight that the recent inflation data have cooled some from earlier this year.
Focused

ServiceMaster: Next Move on Debt?

HY Note: 16 Aug 2018, 9:06 PM ET - The post-FTDR proceeds will likely reduce the SERV term loan and potentially lead to a comprehensive repricing/extension via a new term loan. Could the 7-handle legacy bonds be a target with some tender upside even if not a MW deal?
Focused

Frontdoor: In the Market

HY Note: 14 Aug 2018, 8:19 AM ET - The capitalization of the SERV spin is proceeding quickly and market color is the bonds could come in the 7% area - attractive for a strong free cash generator that offers a good stand-alone profile and favorable growth prospects.
Focused

ServiceMaster Spin: Framing Frontdoor

HY Note: 10 Aug 2018, 3:15 PM ET - We dig into Frontdoor as it readies a leveraged loan and bond deal. FTDR offers a successful strategy tested across brutal cycles, a leading market position, and is a strong free cash flow generator in a niche business with a purpose.

Car Rental: Crossroads or Figure 8?

Sector Outlook: 06 Aug 2018, 11:13 AM ET - We frame key issues ahead of Hertz/Avis earnings week. Will 2018 provide a pause to get more critical execution risks addressed ahead of secular/cyclical pressure ahead? Do they get a 1-year reprieve on residual risk surprises?

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