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3M: 3Q18 | Event Risk Brewing?

Worth Watching: 23 Oct 2018, 9:51 PM ET - 3M (A1/AA-) had a downright ugly quarter especially when compared to other Industrial behemoths that were on the screen today including United Technologies and Caterpillar. Reported revenue sank 0.2% $8.15 bn, due primarily to currency, and cam ..

US Industrials: Macro Data Points

Sector Analysis: 12 Jun 2018, 1:59 AM ET - In this report, we tied the positive tone from Industrial management teams to select economic data points.

US Industrials: EPG Conference | Macro to Micro

Sector Analysis: 29 May 2018, 4:47 AM ET - We attended the 3-day Electrical Products Group conference in FL last week, which featured a host of Industrial firms. The macro and end-market tone was distinctly positive.  In this report we highlight key takeaways on over 15 credits.

Parker: 3Q18 | Shifting to Market perform

Earnings Note: 26 Apr 2018, 9:13 PM ET - PH’s earnings were strong, but with the equity now under pressure and debt reduction plans nearing completion we anticipate a capital allocation change soon. We take our Outperform on the credit to a Market perform.

United Technologies Scenarios: United to Divided?

Company Spotlight: 16 Apr 2018, 4:15 AM ET - We see a modest multiple expansion opportunity if management does go down the break-up route and while there is also a case whereby the SpinCos could have IG ratings, we would not rule out seeing the Climate division move into HY territory.

US Cap Goods: Event Risk = Sector Underperformance

IG Note: 21 Mar 2018, 5:23 AM ET - The Capital Goods Index has been the worst performing sector on an excess return basis year-to-date. Sector returns severely lagged the Index in January with GE and UTX being notable underperformers to date.

JCI: Power Solutions in Play

IG Note: 12 Mar 2018, 9:44 PM ET - We had been flagging JCI as a credit with high event risk. Now JCI is joining other Industrials under pressure by putting Power Solutions under strategic review. We maintain our Underperform until we obtain more capital structure clarity.

Honeywell: Capital Allocation Update

IG Note: 06 Mar 2018, 8:18 PM ET - The message from HON's Investor Day last week was that capital will be allocated in a prudent manner. However, we remain guarded on the credit at current levels with a “new” CEO legacy building and there being an activist in the scene.

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

United Technologies: Break-Up Concerns Validated

IG Note: 21 Feb 2018, 7:03 PM ET - For several years we have highlighted that there was break-up risk at United Technologies and at the Barclay’s Industrial conference, management legitimized that concern.

CNHI 4Q17: Supportive Positive Trends

Earnings Note: 31 Jan 2018, 9:11 AM ET - CNHI reported results highlighting positive trends in end-market demand which contributed to better operating performance. Credit metrics continue to strengthen at the Capital Goods bellwether and we maintain our O/P on CNHI bonds.

US Industrial 2018 Outlook: Conglomerate Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 21 Jan 2018, 9:58 PM ET - Against the backdrop of a generally favorable global demand environment, event risk is the key 2018 credit concern for the conglomerate peer group. We focus on this topic and revisit our credit recommendations for more than two dozen firms.

Dover: Risks Ratings with Spin-off Route

Worth Watching: 07 Dec 2017, 9:28 PM ET - Dover (A3/A-) placed its upstream Oil & Gas business, Wellsite under strategic review back in September and today we learned that the firm is going the spin-off route. This trend has been picking up steam across the US Industrials with recent e ..

GE: Early Innings of a Long Game

IG Note: 13 Nov 2017, 10:50 PM ET - Encouraging for bondholders was seeing the dividend cut and hearing A1/P1 ratings being a target, but at this juncture we do not take such ambitions at face value and maintain our Underperform on the credit.

CNH Industrial: Issuing New 10Y US$ Bonds

Worth Watching: 09 Nov 2017, 1:23 PM ET - CNH Industrial is issuing new 10-year US dollar bonds out of the CNH Industrial N.V. (parent) entity. CNH Industrial has one other US$ bond outstanding at the parent level, the 4.5% 8/2023 bond (Ba2/BBB -/BBB-), which trades at a spread of G+12 ..

Caterpillar: 3Q17 | Knocks the Cover off the Ball

Earnings Note: 24 Oct 2017, 8:11 PM ET - Caterpillar’s earning trajectory has been on a favorable trend line in 2017 and the trend continued into the third quarter with a set of strong results. The quarter did not change our view of the credit and we remain at a Market perform.

GE: 3Q17 | Can GE Bring Itself Back to Life?

Earnings Note: 20 Oct 2017, 11:10 PM ET - GE missed expectations by a wide margin and slashed full-year expectations. We continue to be at an Underperform on the credit until we obtain further clarity on management’s portfolio vision hopefully in a few weeks.

Dover 3Q17: The Waiting Game

Earnings Note: 19 Oct 2017, 2:58 PM ET - Dover released a solid set of third quarter results ahead of the separation of its upstream energy business, Wellsite. Until we obtain greater clarity on the company’s capital structure, we remain at an Underperform on the credit.

UTX & Rockwell Collins: Investor Call Follow Up

IG Note: 05 Sep 2017, 3:35 PM ET - After our initial take on the UTX and COL merger announcement last night, we offer some follow up thoughts.

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