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US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.
Focused

Revlon: Board Member Shuffle

Worth Watching: 19 Nov 2018, 9:20 PM ET - Revlon (Caa3/CCC) filed an 8K late Monday afternoon announcing that Tamara Mellon resigned as a Director in order to devote more time to other interests. Ms. Mellon has been a member of the Board of Directors since 2008. With Ms. Mellon's resig ..
Focused

Revlon 3Q18: Let’s Not Get Too Crazy

Earnings Note: 12 Nov 2018, 5:51 AM ET - We caution against viewing 3Q18 as a sign of a full-throttle turnaround because of concerns about pipeline and inventory fill inflating sales, and concerns about the sustainability of sales levels given the pullback in brand support expense

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 

October 2018 Company Coverage Initiated

Company Coverage Initiated: 31 Oct 2018, 10:03 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the ten companies on which we launched coverage in North American and Europe during the month of October.

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.
Focused

Revlon Initiation: Operations and Projections

Company Spotlight: 26 Oct 2018, 5:47 AM ET - This is part 2 of a two-part initiation piece looking at REV. This article focuses on the company’s business overview and operational struggles. We also provide our cash flow estimates through 2019 and a recovery value analysis.
Focused

Revlon Initiation: Game Theory

Company Spotlight: 26 Oct 2018, 5:47 AM ET - We discuss the various capital structure maneuvers that could occur for the distressed beauty company. These include asset transfers outside of the restricted group, similar to the J.Crew move, and the potential for a distressed exchange.

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

US Employment: 3.0% Wage Growth on the Horizon

Strategy Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 12:24 PM ET - September nonfarm payrolls disappointed on the headline number, but under the surface, the report was solid.  Wages posted another strong gain and are just one tick away from the 3.0% YoY milestone.

US Income & Spending: Consumption Stays On Track

Strategy Analysis: 01 Oct 2018, 6:11 AM ET - The August income & spending report contained another solid reading for consumer spending, continued income growth, and modest inflation. We dig into the pricing environment for a few discretionary spending categories.

US Employment: Finally, A Wage Growth Surprise

Strategy Analysis: 07 Sep 2018, 4:06 PM ET - The August employment report contained the long-awaited breakout in wage growth to a new cycle high. Payroll growth was also solid, and we highlight our outlook for it going forward.

US Income & Spending: Inflation Momentum Fading?

Strategy Analysis: 30 Aug 2018, 2:43 PM ET - July consumer spending and income increased largely as expected, providing a solid start to 3Q spending. The core PCE deflator hit the Fed’s 2.0% target. We highlight that the recent inflation data have cooled some from earlier this year.

Consumer/Pharma: Cross-Sector Rel Val Analysis

Sector Analysis: 19 Jul 2018, 4:27 AM ET - In this report, we juxtapose OAS and leverage levels across on-the-run non-cyclical credits in the F&B and Pharma space. M&A has elevated leverage for several names, so we aim to help investors find the best spread while managing risk.

July Beige Book: Tariffs Front & Center

Sector Analysis: 19 Jul 2018, 4:26 AM ET - We parse the July Beige Book for anecdotes on the impact of tariffs. It’s clear they’re contributing to rising input costs across the US.

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