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Focused

Realogy: Reeling Along

Earnings Note: 02 Nov 2018, 4:49 PM ET - RLGY 3Q18 results underwhelmed with home side unit volume down -3% reflecting the slowdown in the housing markets. Upward pressure on commission splits continues to damper profitability as leverage has risen. 

Retail REITs: Sears Bankruptcy as Opportunity

Worth Watching: 15 Oct 2018, 1:28 PM ET - Retail REITs: With the news that Sears is (finally?) filing for bankruptcy, we size REIT exposures to the long-struggling retailer and see the impacts as broadly manageable. From an operating performance perspective, the vast majority of REITs see ..

REIT/CRE 3Q18 Preview: What We're Watching

Sector Analysis: 12 Oct 2018, 5:57 AM ET - We lay out what we're watching as we head into 3Q18 earnings, for property types, individual credits, and with a macro component given the breadth and depth of economic touch points for U.S. real estate.

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

Homebuilding: Conference Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 03 Oct 2018, 4:13 AM ET - We present some takeaways from the IMN Real Estate Private Equity Forum on Land & Homebuilding Conference in Las Vegas last week.   

Register Now: 2018 Global Financials Seminars

Announcement: 10 Sep 2018, 9:51 PM ET - Register for our upcoming fifth annual Global Financials Seminars.

REITs/CRE 2Q18: How Are Property Types Performing?

Sector Analysis: 22 Aug 2018, 5:10 AM ET - In Part 2 of our REITs/CRE 2Q18 review, we delve into the recent trends—both operating fundamentals and capital markets—across the five major property types as we take the pulse of the different underlying asset classes.

REITs/CRE 2Q18: Themes, Trends and Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 13 Aug 2018, 5:32 AM ET - In part 1 of our REITs/CRE 2Q18 review, we discuss key themes emerging from earnings, including sector relative value, overall market conditions, the continue run-up in construction costs and more.

Interplay Between US Banks & Fed's Balance Sheet

Sector Analysis: 08 Aug 2018, 5:36 AM ET - In this note, we discuss the impacts of the Fed's balance sheet unwind on banks. We expect that U.S. banks will become the "natural buyers" of U.S. Treasuries not bought by the Fed, offsetting the impact on rates.
Focused

Realogy: Secular and Cyclical Drift

Earnings Note: 03 Aug 2018, 4:50 PM ET - The seasonal upswing is seeing positive price and volume trends despite a disappointing existing home sales cycle, but the market conversation usually reverts to disruption, tech, secular pressures, and the question of leverage.

Big Homebuilders: Going to the Source

Sector Analysis: 27 Jul 2018, 4:49 AM ET - With crosscurrents in the headlines around prices, mortgage rates, changing regional demand, and shifting product growth expectations, it still comes down to builder strategies on price and costs, profit margins, and inventory management. 

CA Goes to the Polls: A Rent Control Primer

Sector Analysis: 11 Jul 2018, 9:42 PM ET - In November, Californians will vote on a ballot initiative that seeks to repeal Costa-Hawkins, a 1995-era law restricting municipalities' ability to institute rent control policies, with implications for multifamily REITs in particular.

US Banks: Update to 2018 Debt Supply Forecast

Sector Analysis: 09 Jul 2018, 5:49 AM ET - Following a review of 1H18 debt supply, we are increasing our supply forecast for the full year for the banks in our coverage universe. The majority of the increase reflects increased expectations for OpCo debt from the GSIBs.

REITweek 2018: Cool, Calm, and Collected

Sector Analysis: 08 Jun 2018, 5:22 AM ET - We attended NAREIT's REITweek 2018 convention, providing our top level thoughts on the overall sector tone and analysis on individual company presentations.

REITs/CRE 1Q18: How Are Property Types Performing?

Sector Analysis: 17 May 2018, 4:27 AM ET - In Part 2 of our REITs/CRE 1Q18 review, we delve into the recent trends--both operating fundamentals and capital markets--across the five major property types as we take the pulse of the different underlying asset classes.

REITs/CRE 1Q18: Themes, Trends and Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 14 May 2018, 4:40 AM ET - In part 1 of our REITs/CRE 1Q18 review, we discuss key themes emerging from earnings, including construction cost overruns, public/private market valuation disconnect, sector relative value, and more.
Focused

Realogy: Summer House Slowdown

Earnings Note: 03 May 2018, 9:08 PM ET - RLGY continues to face volume struggles given tight resale inventories and profitability of NRT remains under pressure due to increased commission splits and costs.  The slowdown in the high-end NYC/Hamptons market is not helping results. 

Homebuilders: Spring Showers or Flowers?

Sector Analysis: 24 Apr 2018, 4:24 AM ET - Homebuilder bonds were under pressure YTD18 as tight spreads, rising interest rates, and Fed tightening renewed fears of a slowdown and pressure on affordability. Fundamentals are still sound with leverage and liquidity in good shape. 

Retail REITs: TOYS Exposure aka Market Rents 'R Us

Worth Watching: 15 Mar 2018, 7:08 PM ET - Retail REITs: With Toys 'R Us (TOYS) looking like a straight liquidation rather than a restructuring, we take a quick look at exposures across the retail REIT universe (including names beyond our core coverage). Similar to past exercises with stru ..

U.S. REITs/CRE: 4Q17 Review

Sector Analysis: 04 Mar 2018, 9:41 PM ET - We review U.S. CRE and REIT trends in the wake of solid 4Q17 earnings results and a generally positive, if slowing, operating backdrop for the broader property sectors. Fundamentals continue to support our broader O/P on the sector.

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