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Raytheon 2Q18: Its Classified

Earnings Note: 29 Jul 2018, 10:24 PM ET - RTN raised its FY18 sales, EPS and bookings guidance aided by strong performance in IDS and IIS, but the chief highlight this quarter was the strength in classified bookings that resulted in a book-to-bill of 1.31x and a record backlog.

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 
Focused

A&D 3Q17 Earnings Recap: LMT, GD, BA, NOC, RTN, LLL

Sector Analysis: 30 Oct 2017, 11:36 PM ET - Six names under our A&D coverage reported third quarter earnings last week. Results were generally healthy with four of them reporting better than expected earnings and all six raised or affirmed full-year 2017 earnings guidance. 

US IG Sector Recs: A Very "In Line" April

Sector Weightings: 09 May 2017, 5:22 AM ET - After a weak March the IG index returned to positive territory, but most sectors reported excess return within +/- 5bp of the overall index. We discuss performance and update our sector recommendations. 

US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017

Sector Weightings: 08 May 2017, 11:18 PM ET - Our US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017 includes spread, return and attribution data for many of the Level 3 and Level 4 sectors of the BAML Index.  We look at both monthly and year-to-date performance. 

Sector Update March 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 10 Apr 2017, 8:20 PM ET - The Industrials sector largely matched the widening seen in the IG Corp ate index, though significantly underperformed on an excess return basis. We continue to hold a largely negative view on the sector entering 2Q17.

Sector Update February 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 12 Mar 2017, 8:10 PM ET - February was a mixed month for Industrials sub-sectors, however aggregate excess return slightly outperformed the IG index. We also provide a summary of Industrials monthly IG supply and US Manufacturing ISM in our report.

Trump, Trade, Germany, and the EU

Strategy Analysis: 08 Mar 2017, 11:15 PM ET - The Trump team focuses on a bilateral deal with Germany distinct from the EU and sets the stage for more tension. We frame the US-Germany trade deficit for 2016 at the industry level.  Trade edges ahead of the Fed as a risk variable?

US Taxes: Interest Deductibility, Par Call Fear

Sector Analysis: 27 Feb 2017, 3:42 PM ET - We look into recent inquiries on interest deductibility issues and redemption risk.  Finding special tax redemption provisions can be a needles-and-haystacks exercise. The good news is "tailored" interest deduction language is hard to find.

Sector Update January 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 09 Feb 2017, 8:14 PM ET - Within the Industrials sector, only Automotives were able to modestly outperform the US Corp index. After this run, coupled with fundamental concerns, we downgrade our rec on Autos to Underperform.  

Bombardier: Fed Govt. Provides C$372.5 mn Loan

HY Note: 08 Feb 2017, 5:52 AM ET - Bombardier receives a new Canadian government financial aid package that is less than expected, but still further supports liquidity and financial flexibility and helps to mitigate program execution risks.  

Aerospace & Defense 2017 Outlook: Underperform

Sector Outlook: 01 Feb 2017, 5:43 AM ET - The DoD is still operating under a continuing resolution in FY17, but there is increased optimism that the new Republican government will lift defense spending caps for the years ahead. Commercial aerospace will face some headwinds in 2017.

US Manufacturing: Industrial Production Picks Pace

Worth Watching: 18 Jan 2017, 12:24 PM ET - US Manufacturing Federal Reserve reported Industrial Production data for December came in better than expected and, on the surface, underscored positive momentum to end the year with December activity up 0.8% MoM and up 0.5% YoY. However, we hi ..

US Strategy: Import Tax Pain Ahead?

Strategy Analysis: 03 Jan 2017, 11:03 PM ET - We look at some risks of corporate tax proposals tied to "border adjustments" (i.e. import taxes). Economist advocates make major assumptions on currencies and ignore the wildcard of "behavior" and potential responses to the policies.

US Manufacturing ISM: Ends 2016 on Solid Footing

Worth Watching: 03 Jan 2017, 2:57 PM ET - US Manufacturing ISM: For US manufacturing in 2017, all eyes will be on new trade policies and fiscal stimulus under the new Trump Administration and how that will impact the manufacturing trends in the country. Clearly more US-domiciled manufa ..

Upcoming NY IG & HY Conferences

Announcement: 29 Nov 2016, 8:54 PM ET - Join us in New York on Tuesday, December 13, 2016 for our upcoming conferences.

US-Japan Trade: New Day, Same Old Deficit

Sector Analysis: 22 Nov 2016, 11:13 PM ET - The Japan trade deficit is a tradition across decades of GOP/Dem leadership with the flow of goods still led by cars/parts (imports) and planes/parts (exports). Yen weakness is hard to complain about when the UST curve is driving it.     

US-China Trade: A Beautiful Mine

Strategy Analysis: 21 Nov 2016, 9:56 PM ET - The game theory of US-China trade negotiations will need two sides to at least be playing the same game. Manufacturing and tech is big in US-China deficit politics, and costs would be high in the event it ends badly. 

NAFTA: Flash Back, Look Forward

Strategy Analysis: 14 Nov 2016, 4:07 AM ET - We take a quick look back at the politics of NAFTA and frame some of the moving parts of the forward risk story. The NAFTA trade issue is a wildcard for autos, ag equipment/parts, pockets of manufacturing, and freight/logistics.

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