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US Inflation: Goods Inflation Is Back

Sector Analysis: 12 Dec 2018, 11:57 PM ET - Headline and core indexes both increased in line with expectations.  We highlight the first bought of YoY core goods inflation since 2016 and anecdotes of margin pressure from the most recent Beige Book.

IG European Consumer: 2019 Outlook Opinion Changes

Sector Outlook: 11 Dec 2018, 9:03 PM ET - We set out more on our six opinion changes in European food & beverage/HPC and retail for 2019, plus the initiation of Molson Coors, and give specific bond recommendations in order to execute them. 

US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

IG European Consumer 2019: Known Unknowns

Sector Outlook: 06 Dec 2018, 10:03 PM ET - We have updated our frameworks for assessing RV in our high grade/crossover European food & bev/HPC and retail names for 2019, the 500th anniversary of the death of Leonardo da Vinci. We also initiate coverage on Molson Coors.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.

Latam in Focus: Mexico Flies, Brazilian Honeymoon

Emerging Markets Spotlight: 15 Nov 2018, 6:04 AM ET - Latin American credit has rebounded in recent months, led by Argentina and Brazil. Mexico in contrast has been hit as investors have become worried about AMLO’s policy priorities. We prefer Brazil to Mexico in the current environment.

JBS SA 3Q18: Still Prioritizing Deleveraging

Earnings Note: 15 Nov 2018, 5:09 AM ET - JBS reported solid 3Q18 results, driven by Brazil and US Beef. Management is committed to further deleveraging the balance sheet, having set a target of 3x by year-end 2018 and 2x by year-end 2019. We maintain our Outperform recommendation.

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.

JBS SA: Issuing $500 million of 2026s

Worth Watching: 18 Oct 2018, 4:22 AM ET - JBS SA (Ba3/BB-) is marketing $500 million of senior unsecured 2026s issued out of JBS Investments II GmbH and guaranteed by JBS S.A.. Pricing is expected on Thursday 10/18. As we noted earlier this week, JBS is taking advantage of a gap in the ..

JBS SA: Tender Offers & Consent Solicitation

Worth Watching: 14 Oct 2018, 10:02 PM ET - JBS SA (B1/BB-) has commenced cash tender offers for any and all of the $1 bn of 7.75s due 2020 and up to $500 million of the $1.15 bn 7.25s due 2021. The tender offer comes with a coercive consent solicitation that seeks to eliminate substanti ..

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 

JBS SA: Upgraded to BB- by S&P, Positive Outlook

Worth Watching: 11 Oct 2018, 10:28 PM ET - JBS SA (B1/BB-) was upgraded from B+ to BB- by S&P with a positive outlook. The rating agency noted JBS's recent refinancing of short-term debt and the company's progress deleveraging. Recall that management is targeting 3.0x net leverage by ye ..

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

US Employment: 3.0% Wage Growth on the Horizon

Strategy Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 12:24 PM ET - September nonfarm payrolls disappointed on the headline number, but under the surface, the report was solid.  Wages posted another strong gain and are just one tick away from the 3.0% YoY milestone.

US Income & Spending: Consumption Stays On Track

Strategy Analysis: 01 Oct 2018, 6:11 AM ET - The August income & spending report contained another solid reading for consumer spending, continued income growth, and modest inflation. We dig into the pricing environment for a few discretionary spending categories.

JBS SA: Repays R$2 bn Loan

Worth Watching: 12 Sep 2018, 9:17 PM ET - JBS SA (B1/B+) announced the advanced payment of a R$2 billion loan, following through on comments made on the 2Q18 call regarding repayment of additional debt (see JBS SA 2Q18: Planning Additional Debt Repayment). The release did not state ho ..

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