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PG&E

PG&E's service territory spans 70,000 square miles and has four main operational units: electric and gas distribution, electric transmission, gas transmission and electric generation. The company has 5.3 million electric and 4.4 million gas customer accounts. PacGas filed for bankruptcy in 2001 as a result of the California Energy Crisis and $300 million/month of uncollectable power costs. A series of bills and Commission decisions that passed as a result of the crisis at the time enabled the company to better emerge from bankruptcy and bondholders were made whole. Decoupling for both electric and gas passed in the late 1970s/early 1980s. (21 Nov 2017)

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Xcel Energy: Plans to go 100% Renewable by 2050

Worth Watching: 04 Dec 2018, 11:26 PM ET - Xcel Energy  (A3/BBB+) announced plans to serve all of its customers across eight Midwest and Rocky Mountain states with 100% renewable energy by 2050 and also expects to see an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels.  The comp ..
Focused

PacGas & Edison Updates; Upgrading EIX Holdco/Opco

Company Analysis: 03 Dec 2018, 6:06 AM ET - We are upgrading Edison parent debt and SoCalEd opco debt from Market perform to Outperform based on wide bond spreads and balances sheets that can easily handle a $10 billion worst-case scenario.  

November 2018 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 02 Dec 2018, 9:51 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the forty company recommendation changes made on North American companies during the month of November.

Oil & Gas: HY E&P Cash Flows at $50/bbl Oil

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:10 AM ET - We now see HY E&P 2019 cash flows coming in 24% lower than previously expected at our new $50/WTI price deck ($65/WTI old).  We expect to see a mix of capex cuts, divestitures and incremental borrowings next year.

Oil & Gas: Slashing Oil Outlook, Downgrading E&Ps

Sector Analysis: 26 Nov 2018, 4:48 AM ET - We believe the recent 33% drop in oil prices is likely to be just the first leg of a deeper decline.  We are reducing our 2019 oil price view and recalibrating our IG and HY E&P investment recommendations to a more defensive position.
Focused

Yieldcos: PacGas Pair Trade; CA Expos. & CWEN Mgt

Company Analysis: 18 Nov 2018, 9:39 PM ET - We provide an overview of Yieldco exposure to CA utilities, a credit paired trade, the bull and bear case for CA utilities rejecting PPAs and notes from our call with Clearway Energy management.

US IG Chart of the Day: 15 Best / Worst November

Strategy Analysis: 16 Nov 2018, 9:29 AM ET - For today's chart of the day we look at mid-month performance of the 15 best and worst performing issuers on a duration adjusted level for the US IG ICE BofAML index. We also calc PCG and GE's contribution to the loss. 
Focused

PacGas: Positive PUC Talk; Bailout Cust. Impact

Worth Watching: 15 Nov 2018, 11:57 PM ET - PacGas (opco Baa3/BBB) got some much needed good news that caused the stock to rally after-hours when the head of the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) indicated on a BofA investor call that the commission supported having a strong ..
Focused

PacGas for Generalists: Frequently Asked Questions

Company Analysis: 14 Nov 2018, 4:10 PM ET - We provide and FAQ for generalists new to Pacific Gas & Electric and/or the utility sector.
Focused

PacGas: Model Update and Questions/Thoughts

Company Analysis: 14 Nov 2018, 4:16 AM ET - We provide some thoughts on the latest PacGas situation, questions we want answered, and some modeling framework for whatever the ultimate claims come in at. 
Focused

PacGas: Downgrade to M/P; Need another Bill Passed

Company Analysis: 11 Nov 2018, 8:24 PM ET - We are downgrading PacGas opco bonds from Marketperform to Underperform based on the recent SB 901 bill not including 2018 wildfires and recent negative press reports on PCG equipment near the source and timing of the current fires. 

Utilities: Questions We Want Answered at EEI

Sector Analysis: 08 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We are heading to EEI in San Francisco for the annual investor conference and lay out in this report the bondholder questions we want answered from various management teams.
Focused

PacGas: Focus Turns to Rate-Case & Stress Test

Company Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 3:31 PM ET - We reiterate our contrarian Outperform rating on PCG opco bonds given the uneventful 3Q earnings report. 

Utilities: 3Q FFO Tracker; Unchanged YoY So Far

Sector Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:18 AM ET - We still have not seen any significant negative impact from tax reform from the over 15 utilities in our core coverage that have full 3Q cash flow statements available.

Framing Berkshire’s Nevada Utility Ballot Vote

Company Analysis: 01 Nov 2018, 10:05 PM ET - We don't see any concerns for bondholders and frame Nevada ballot question #3 for bondholders. 

ESG and Utilities: CSights Sector View and Ratings

Sector Analysis: 30 Oct 2018, 3:25 PM ET - We are following up the formal launch of the CreditSights ESG investing framework with a in-depth look at ESG issues in the utility sector.
Focused

PacGas: Bondholder Inv. Thesis & Model Update

Company Analysis: 30 Oct 2018, 5:04 AM ET - We update our investing thesis for PacGas bonds and provide an overview of our earnings model that shows PCG maintaining IG ratings even under a worst-case $18 billion of wildfire claims. 

FirstEnergy: 3Q Follow-up; Conf. Call Q&A Notes

Company Analysis: 26 Oct 2018, 2:12 PM ET - We follow-up our earlier FirstEnergy (Baa3/BBB-) report with a summary and commentary on the conference call Q&A. 

FirstEnergy: Strong 3Q - Favorite Utility Holdco

Worth Watching: 25 Oct 2018, 10:27 PM ET - FirstEnergy  (Baa3/BBB-) reported LTM FFO/debt slipped slightly from 2Q but this is due to 4Q17 and 1Q18 still including positive cash flows from the now fully exited genco so the slip was fully expected and FE remains our top pick for U.S. uti ..

HY Power: Yieldco Rel Val @ +230-310; Pros & Cons

Sector Analysis: 15 Oct 2018, 5:10 AM ET - We update our relative value picks/pans for the Yieldco sector and provide pros and cons for the sector as a whole and each company. 

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