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Oil & Gas: HY E&P Cash Flows at $50/bbl Oil

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:10 AM ET - We now see HY E&P 2019 cash flows coming in 24% lower than previously expected at our new $50/WTI price deck ($65/WTI old).  We expect to see a mix of capex cuts, divestitures and incremental borrowings next year.

Oil & Gas: Slashing Oil Outlook, Downgrading E&Ps

Sector Analysis: 26 Nov 2018, 4:48 AM ET - We believe the recent 33% drop in oil prices is likely to be just the first leg of a deeper decline.  We are reducing our 2019 oil price view and recalibrating our IG and HY E&P investment recommendations to a more defensive position.

Yieldcos: PacGas Pair Trade; CA Expos. & CWEN Mgt

Company Analysis: 18 Nov 2018, 9:39 PM ET - We provide an overview of Yieldco exposure to CA utilities, a credit paired trade, the bull and bear case for CA utilities rejecting PPAs and notes from our call with Clearway Energy management.

Pattern Energy: 3Q18 CAFD Up, Metrics Improve

Worth Watching: 05 Nov 2018, 2:33 PM ET - Pattern Energy Group Inc (PEGI: Ba3/BB-) reported 3Q18 cash available for distribution (CAFD) of ~$32mn, over three times the amount recorded in 3Q17 of ~$9mn and on track to meet its targeted YE18 guidance of $151-$181mn (currently at $133mn YT ..

HY Power / Yieldcos : PEGI v. CWEN

Company Analysis: 01 Nov 2018, 5:29 AM ET - We provide a deeper look at yieldcos Pattern Energy (PEGI: Ba3/BB-) and Clearway Energy (CWEN: Ba2/BB, formerly known as NYLD) and lay out the similarities/differences in this report.

HY Power: Yieldco Rel Val @ +230-310; Pros & Cons

Sector Analysis: 15 Oct 2018, 5:10 AM ET - We update our relative value picks/pans for the Yieldco sector and provide pros and cons for the sector as a whole and each company. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

HY Power: Calpine EBITDA Soaring w/ TX Heat

Company Analysis: 30 Jul 2018, 6:01 AM ET - We calculate the heat wave that hit TX in July combined with strong August forward power prices could add $450 million of EBITDA to Calpine’s $1.8-1.9 billion EBITDA run-rate of the last several years.

HY Power CLO Monitor: Secured Debt Update

Sector Analysis: 24 Jul 2018, 5:35 AM ET - We expect stable to improving secured leverage across the HY Power sector driven by a strong outlook for free cash flows as capex is minimal across the board. 

HY Power: TX Spark Spreads Continue to Climb

Worth Watching: 02 Jul 2018, 10:55 AM ET - HY Power - Spark spreads for the month of June finished mixed relative to last year's levels and closed higher in Texas / ERCOT (+12%), PJM West (+21%) and East (+4%) while falling significantly in Northern/Southern CA and New England. So far t ..

AES: Exits Eletropaulo Stake, Positive for CEMIG?

Worth Watching: 14 Jun 2018, 10:28 AM ET - AES (Ba2/BB+) announced it has officially exited its 17% stake in Eletropaulo (ELPL3: a Brazilian utility, no USD bonds) for $310 million and will use the proceeds to reduce parent level debt. We view the sale as another positive signal for AES ho ..

Utilities & Power: Trade Pub & Twitter Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 07 Jun 2018, 4:59 AM ET - We provide investors highlights from worthwhile stories we've read in trade publications and twitter over the last two weeks. 

Power & Utilities: Gangbuster PJM Auction +83% YoY

Sector Weightings: 23 May 2018, 9:11 PM ET - PJM capacity auction prices rose 83% YoY, w/multiple new regions breaking out even higher. TLN bonds are likely most exposed to the upside. Positive for PEG, EXC, VST, CPN, and NRG. 

TerraForm: Buy, Brookfield Maintaining Control

Earnings Note: 03 May 2018, 10:09 PM ET - Buy TERP Bonds....We believe the Canadian clients get it and most of the American asset managers balk at TERPs leverage and aren't as familiar with Brookfield's sterling reputation on credit quality. 

NRG Energy: 3x Net Lev. on Track; Large M2M Gain

Company Analysis: 03 May 2018, 9:40 AM ET - NRG's 3x net leverage target is on track as investors brace for a record hot summer in TX that is not without significant operating risk. 

Transcanada: TCP Drops 29% on Distribution Cut

Worth Watching: 02 May 2018, 9:20 PM ET - Transcanada  (TRP: A3/BBB+) U.S. MLP, TC Pipelines, fell 29% on Wednesday after announcing a 35% distribution cut and is now down 53% in 2018.  The initial FERC announcement drove TCP equity down ~26%, which made equity funding unattractive, and ..

Crestwood 1Q18: Totally Committed to Being an MLP

Earnings Note: 01 May 2018, 11:14 AM ET - CEQP reported 1Q18 adjusted EBITDA of $102mn, up 12% YoY and below consensus estimates of $103mn, driven primarily by strong gathering and processing volume increases.  

March 2018 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 01 Apr 2018, 9:44 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the twenty-two company recommendation changes made on North American companies during the month of March.

SunPower: Pros Cons & Silver Lining, Bonds 77-80c

Company Spotlight: 19 Mar 2018, 5:35 AM ET - SunPower convertible bonds are down ~6-10 points since August '17 and its equity is down ~38% over the same period. Mgmt is trying to get an exemption from Trump's 30% tariff on solar panels and Total S.A credit support seems constructive

Pattern Energy: 4Q Dwngrade To U/P On Payout Ratio

Earnings Note: 02 Mar 2018, 4:09 AM ET - We are downgrading Pattern Energy to Underperform relative to the other yieldcos in our coverage (NEP, TERP, NYLD). The increasing equity cost of capital will likely mute growth in coming quarters. 

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