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Oncor

Oncor is a purely regulated electric transmission and distribution company in TX. Its service territories include Dallas and Fort Worth. Oncor was ring-fenced as part of the deal that allowed KKR and others to LBO its parent, EFH, in 2007. In 2014, the parent company filed bankruptcy while leaving Oncor out of the bankruptcy. The ring fence was enhanced over time to be as tight as could be, and will stay in place post the bankruptcy, but may see some changes. The REIT conversion of Oncor was highly challenged by PUCT and those funding the potential purchase ultimately pulled out because of the restrictive provision the PUCT placed on Oncor. ERCOT, the TX ISO where Oncor resides is mostly a closed system with few interconnections to other grids. (21 Nov 2017)

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MEAG: Power and General Power Revenue Bonds

Municipals Analysis: 12 Dec 2018, 5:50 AM ET - On Wednesday the Municipal Electric Authority of Georgia will issue $175 mn Power Revenue and $70 mn General Power Revenue Bonds which correspond and will be on a parity with its outstanding Project One and General Resolution Bonds.

Xcel Energy: Plans to go 100% Renewable by 2050

Worth Watching: 04 Dec 2018, 11:26 PM ET - Xcel Energy  (A3/BBB+) announced plans to serve all of its customers across eight Midwest and Rocky Mountain states with 100% renewable energy by 2050 and also expects to see an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels.  The comp ..

PacGas & Edison Updates; Upgrading EIX Holdco/Opco

Company Analysis: 03 Dec 2018, 6:06 AM ET - We are upgrading Edison parent debt and SoCalEd opco debt from Market perform to Outperform based on wide bond spreads and balances sheets that can easily handle a $10 billion worst-case scenario.  

Oil & Gas: HY E&P Cash Flows at $50/bbl Oil

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:10 AM ET - We now see HY E&P 2019 cash flows coming in 24% lower than previously expected at our new $50/WTI price deck ($65/WTI old).  We expect to see a mix of capex cuts, divestitures and incremental borrowings next year.

Oil & Gas: Slashing Oil Outlook, Downgrading E&Ps

Sector Analysis: 26 Nov 2018, 4:48 AM ET - We believe the recent 33% drop in oil prices is likely to be just the first leg of a deeper decline.  We are reducing our 2019 oil price view and recalibrating our IG and HY E&P investment recommendations to a more defensive position.

PacGas: Positive PUC Talk; Bailout Cust. Impact

Worth Watching: 15 Nov 2018, 11:57 PM ET - PacGas (opco Baa3/BBB) got some much needed good news that caused the stock to rally after-hours when the head of the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) indicated on a BofA investor call that the commission supported having a strong ..

PacGas: Model Update and Questions/Thoughts

Company Analysis: 14 Nov 2018, 4:16 AM ET - We provide some thoughts on the latest PacGas situation, questions we want answered, and some modeling framework for whatever the ultimate claims come in at. 

PacGas: Downgrade to M/P; Need another Bill Passed

Company Analysis: 11 Nov 2018, 8:24 PM ET - We are downgrading PacGas opco bonds from Marketperform to Underperform based on the recent SB 901 bill not including 2018 wildfires and recent negative press reports on PCG equipment near the source and timing of the current fires. 

Utilities: Questions We Want Answered at EEI

Sector Analysis: 08 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We are heading to EEI in San Francisco for the annual investor conference and lay out in this report the bondholder questions we want answered from various management teams.

PacGas: Focus Turns to Rate-Case & Stress Test

Company Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 3:31 PM ET - We reiterate our contrarian Outperform rating on PCG opco bonds given the uneventful 3Q earnings report. 

Utilities: 3Q FFO Tracker; Unchanged YoY So Far

Sector Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:18 AM ET - We still have not seen any significant negative impact from tax reform from the over 15 utilities in our core coverage that have full 3Q cash flow statements available.

Framing Berkshire’s Nevada Utility Ballot Vote

Company Analysis: 01 Nov 2018, 10:05 PM ET - We don't see any concerns for bondholders and frame Nevada ballot question #3 for bondholders. 

ESG and Utilities: CSights Sector View and Ratings

Sector Analysis: 30 Oct 2018, 3:25 PM ET - We are following up the formal launch of the CreditSights ESG investing framework with a in-depth look at ESG issues in the utility sector.

FirstEnergy: 3Q Follow-up; Conf. Call Q&A Notes

Company Analysis: 26 Oct 2018, 2:12 PM ET - We follow-up our earlier FirstEnergy (Baa3/BBB-) report with a summary and commentary on the conference call Q&A. 

FirstEnergy: Strong 3Q - Favorite Utility Holdco

Worth Watching: 25 Oct 2018, 10:27 PM ET - FirstEnergy  (Baa3/BBB-) reported LTM FFO/debt slipped slightly from 2Q but this is due to 4Q17 and 1Q18 still including positive cash flows from the now fully exited genco so the slip was fully expected and FE remains our top pick for U.S. uti ..

HY Power: Yieldco Rel Val @ +230-310; Pros & Cons

Sector Analysis: 15 Oct 2018, 5:10 AM ET - We update our relative value picks/pans for the Yieldco sector and provide pros and cons for the sector as a whole and each company. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

Utilities: 2020 EPS Estimates vs. LTM, +13% Avg

Sector Analysis: 09 Oct 2018, 5:21 AM ET - We compare 2020 consensus EPS estimates to LTM and comment on the top five and bottom five names in the sector and the potential impact on credit quality. 

Utilities: Reach for Yld; Upgrading D, SRE & FTSCN

Sector Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 5:51 AM ET - We are comfortable reaching for yield in the U.S. utility sector and are upgrading Dominion, Sempra and Fortis holdco bonds from Market perform to Outperform. 

Southern Co: Thesis Update Post Vogtle Settlement

Company Analysis: 28 Sep 2018, 4:49 AM ET - The recent Vogtle settlement agreement is manageable for bondholders and the strong potential for additional cost overruns from labor shortages is a real issue but already reflected in the widest holdco bonds spreads in our coverage. 

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