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Homebuilding: Conference Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 03 Oct 2018, 4:13 AM ET - We present some takeaways from the IMN Real Estate Private Equity Forum on Land & Homebuilding Conference in Las Vegas last week.   

Big Homebuilders: Going to the Source

Sector Analysis: 27 Jul 2018, 4:49 AM ET - With crosscurrents in the headlines around prices, mortgage rates, changing regional demand, and shifting product growth expectations, it still comes down to builder strategies on price and costs, profit margins, and inventory management. 
Focused

Homebuilders: Spring Showers or Flowers?

Sector Analysis: 24 Apr 2018, 4:24 AM ET - Homebuilder bonds were under pressure YTD18 as tight spreads, rising interest rates, and Fed tightening renewed fears of a slowdown and pressure on affordability. Fundamentals are still sound with leverage and liquidity in good shape. 
Focused

NVR: Bullish for Builders?

Earnings Note: 20 Apr 2018, 11:56 AM ET - There is traditionally little extra granularity for NVR earnings with no earnings call, but trends were reassuring, new orders +17%, absorption +13% and, cancellations down -200 bps YoY in 1Q18.  A handful of builders report next week. 

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 
Focused

Housing and Taxes: Wrong Multiplier Effect

Strategy Analysis: 08 Nov 2017, 3:44 AM ET - As the Congress scrambles to find revenue for majority vote machinations, the clear and direct multiplier effects of housing-related growth is getting tempered to support the theoretical, indirect benefits of corporate and estate tax cuts.
Focused

NVR: Bullish Order Trends

Earnings Note: 20 Oct 2017, 8:32 AM ET - NVR posted +20% new order growth in 3Q17 sending the stock of ~8% on the day.  The results underscore continual strong demand for new homes.  
Focused

Housing: Mortgages, GSE Reform, Taxes

Strategy Analysis: 27 Jul 2017, 4:48 AM ET - Homebuilders are rolling along near capacity against the backdrop of Washington chaos while awaiting clarity on reform/deregulation in housing finance. The bigger macro variable for mortgage credit is existing homes and not builders.
Focused

US Strategy: Housing, Leverage, Quality

Strategy Analysis: 26 Jul 2017, 6:02 AM ET - We provide a top-down, summary look at the aggregate housing sector balance sheet, asset quality, and default metrics. The much-improved home equity profile of mortgaged properties and supply-demand balance does not signal trouble.

Homebuilding: Starts, Permits Fortify Story

Strategy Analysis: 20 Jul 2017, 5:27 AM ET - June home starts (+8.3%) and permits (+7.4%) rebounded from a weak May as the trajectory for the homebuilding markets remains positive with a handful of builders set to report results next week.  Slow growth remains the rolling trend. 

March 2017: Case-Shiller Home Prices

Worth Watching: 30 May 2017, 1:07 PM ET - March 2017 home prices continued to post gains with the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index continuing to post new highs while the 20-city index remains 5.4% below its peak.   Case-Shiller Home Price indexes continued to post gains in March ..

Homebuilding Snapshot: April Showers…?

Strategy Analysis: 16 May 2017, 1:59 PM ET - Headline April home construction numbers experienced a sequential stall but parsing the multi-family versus single-family and seasonal influences shows  the trajectory for homebuilders remains positive.

US IG Sector Recs: A Very "In Line" April

Sector Weightings: 09 May 2017, 5:22 AM ET - After a weak March the IG index returned to positive territory, but most sectors reported excess return within +/- 5bp of the overall index. We discuss performance and update our sector recommendations. 

US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017

Sector Weightings: 08 May 2017, 11:18 PM ET - Our US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017 includes spread, return and attribution data for many of the Level 3 and Level 4 sectors of the BAML Index.  We look at both monthly and year-to-date performance. 

Homebuilder Snapshot: Residential Resilience

Strategy Analysis: 25 Apr 2017, 4:29 PM ET - The March new home sales numbers from the Census had another solid month of YoY and 2nd best month since the crisis as the start of spring selling season sends favorable cyclical signs and highlights pent-up demand.

Homebuilding Snapshot: Spring Started Early

Strategy Analysis: 18 Apr 2017, 1:35 PM ET - We look at March and YTD 1Q17 residential construction numbers with an overlay of mortgage rates. Homebuilding trends still signal steady growth for single family builders with the existing backlog already resource constrained.

Sector Update March 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 10 Apr 2017, 8:20 PM ET - The Industrials sector largely matched the widening seen in the IG Corp ate index, though significantly underperformed on an excess return basis. We continue to hold a largely negative view on the sector entering 2Q17.

Homebuilding Snapshot: Prices Tell a Story

Strategy Analysis: 23 Mar 2017, 3:17 PM ET - We frame the trend line in new home vs. existing home sales and the wider gap between median and average prices for new homes.  The low end is picking up, but the $500K+ and $750K+ segment is holding in.  

Sector Update February 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 12 Mar 2017, 8:10 PM ET - February was a mixed month for Industrials sub-sectors, however aggregate excess return slightly outperformed the IG index. We also provide a summary of Industrials monthly IG supply and US Manufacturing ISM in our report.

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