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Newell Brands

Newell Brands is a global marketer of consumer and commercial products. Leading brands include Paper Mate, Sharpie, Dymo, Expo, Parker, Elmer's, Coleman, Jostens, Marmot, Rawlings, Oster, Sunbeam, FoodSaver, Mr. Coffee, Rubbermaid, Yankee Candle, Contigo, and more. NWL acquired Jarden Corporation for over $15 billion in April 2016. Management originally planned for $500 mn of synergies by 2018, later expanding the target to $1.0 billion by 2019. However, after integration issues, NWL said it would sell up to $10 bn of assets to focus the company around core consumer branded products that generate $11 bn of sales and $2 bn of EBITDA. NWL generates over 70% of its annual sales within the United States. In 2Q18, NWL rearranged its business under three operating segments. Food & Appliances includes the appliances, cookware and food divisions. Home & Outdoor Living includes the outdoor, recreation, and home fragrances divisions, as well as the connected home and security division. Learning & Development houses the writing and baby divisions. (20 Sep 2018)

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US Inflation: Goods Inflation Is Back

Sector Analysis: 12 Dec 2018, 11:57 PM ET - Headline and core indexes both increased in line with expectations.  We highlight the first bought of YoY core goods inflation since 2016 and anecdotes of margin pressure from the most recent Beige Book.

US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.
Focused

Newell Brands 3Q18: Buying Back Stock Already...

Earnings Note: 02 Nov 2018, 4:28 PM ET - While NWL’s results were not as messy as we feared, core sales declined more than management had expected. NWL repurchased ~$500 mn shares in the quarter even though net leverage is still well above 4x.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.
Focused

Newell Brands: Announces Tender Results, Pricing

Worth Watching: 16 Oct 2018, 10:37 PM ET - Newell Brands (Baa3/BBB-) announced on Tuesday the early tender results and pricing of its previously announced tender offer for up to a $1 billion, collectively, of 2019, 2021, 2023 and 2026 senior unsecured bonds (see Newell Brands: Tendering ..

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

US Employment: 3.0% Wage Growth on the Horizon

Strategy Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 12:24 PM ET - September nonfarm payrolls disappointed on the headline number, but under the surface, the report was solid.  Wages posted another strong gain and are just one tick away from the 3.0% YoY milestone.

A Look at BBBs that Levered Up

Strategy Outlook: 02 Oct 2018, 10:39 PM ET - We ran a screen for BBBs that have levered up since 2015YE, and surveyed our analysts for their current view on each credit as well as issues to look for that could put the credit at risk of a downgrade. 
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Newell Brands: Tendering for $1bn of Bonds

Worth Watching: 01 Oct 2018, 11:29 PM ET - Newell Brands (Baa3/BBB-) has commenced tender offers for $1 billion of bonds as follows. The company is tendering for any and all of the 2.875s due in March 2019, which have $350 million outstanding. NWL is also tendering for up to $650 millio ..

US Income & Spending: Consumption Stays On Track

Strategy Analysis: 01 Oct 2018, 6:11 AM ET - The August income & spending report contained another solid reading for consumer spending, continued income growth, and modest inflation. We dig into the pricing environment for a few discretionary spending categories.

September 2018 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 30 Sep 2018, 9:25 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the twelve company recommendation changes made on North American companies during the month of September.
Focused

Newell Brands: IG Promises No Longer Enough

IG Note: 26 Sep 2018, 5:27 AM ET - We are downgrading our recommendation on NWL bonds to Underperform. We had taken solace in management’s commitment to IG ratings, but we now see a higher risk that operational headwinds exhaust the patience of activists on the Board.

US Employment: Finally, A Wage Growth Surprise

Strategy Analysis: 07 Sep 2018, 4:06 PM ET - The August employment report contained the long-awaited breakout in wage growth to a new cycle high. Payroll growth was also solid, and we highlight our outlook for it going forward.

US Income & Spending: Inflation Momentum Fading?

Strategy Analysis: 30 Aug 2018, 2:43 PM ET - July consumer spending and income increased largely as expected, providing a solid start to 3Q spending. The core PCE deflator hit the Fed’s 2.0% target. We highlight that the recent inflation data have cooled some from earlier this year.

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