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Newcrest Mining

NCMAU is the 6th largest gold miner in the world based on 2017 figures, having produced 2.29 mn oz of gold. NCMAU's operations are spread across Australia, Papua New Guinea, and Indonesia. ~45% of FY17 production was dug from Australia, with the remaining 55% coming from riskier, less politically stable regions. NCMAU acquired the Lihir mine as a result of the merger with Lihir Gold Limited in August 2010. The miner has struggled for years to keep costs at Lihir under control and performance finally started to improve in F1H16. As of 12/31/17, NCMAU had an estimated 62 mn oz of gold reserves based on a price assumption of $1,200/oz. (11 Sep 2018)

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NCMAU: Moody's Upgrades to Baa2

Worth Watching: 06 Dec 2018, 2:20 PM ET - NCMAU (Baa2/BBB): Moody's upgraded NCMAU's long-term issuer ratings by a notch from Baa3 to Baa2 with a stable outlook. The ratings upgrade comes on the back of S&P's upgrade to BBB in September and reflects NCMAU's consistently strong financial p ..
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NCMAU: S&P Upgrades to BBB

Worth Watching: 06 Sep 2018, 7:50 PM ET - NCMAU (Baa3/BBB): S&P upgraded the Australian gold miner by one-notch to BBB. The ratings upgrade reflects the agency's expectations for NCMAU to sustain its strong credit metrics due to its low-cost production, low gearing, and stable operations ..
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NCMAU: F2H18 Results; Guides to Better FY19

Worth Watching: 22 Aug 2018, 10:11 PM ET - NCMAU (Baa3/BBB-) reported F2H18 sales of $1.85 bn and adjusted EBITDA of $938 mn, up 10% and 50%, respectively, from the prior year period. FY18 EBITDA of $1.57 bn came in above analyst consensus estimates of $1.49 bn and was up 11% in comparison ..
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NCMAU: Cadia Hill Open Pit Tailings Approval

Worth Watching: 23 Apr 2018, 8:06 PM ET - NCMAU (Baa3/BBB-) received approval to use the bottom 200 m of the 500 m deep Cadia Hill open pit for tailings storage in conjunction with the southern tailings facility. With greatly expanded tailings storage capacity, NCMAU will be able to ramp ..

BHP: F3Q18 Production Results, IO Disappoints

Worth Watching: 19 Apr 2018, 11:36 PM ET - BHP (A3/A) posted mixed F3Q18 production results for the quarter that ended on March 31, 2018. WAIO iron ore production of 67 Mt on 100% basis came in below analyst estimates of 69 Mt. Iron ore production was up 8% YoY due to record production at ..

Basic Industries: 1Q18 In Review and a Look Ahead

Sector Analysis: 17 Apr 2018, 4:12 AM ET - We review the performance of the Basic Industries sector  YTD, comparing themes in our outlook with actual developments. We also talk about unexpected developments, and what we think will shape the balance of the year. 
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NCMAU: Cadia Processing Restarts

Worth Watching: 03 Apr 2018, 8:47 PM ET - NCMAU (Baa3/BBB-) recommended processing over the Easter weekend with associated tailings being deposited into the southern tailings facility. Processing is currently at a reduced rate of 8 mtpa. Prior to the incident, NCMAU was targeting a new p ..

March 2018 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 01 Apr 2018, 9:44 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the twenty-two company recommendation changes made on North American companies during the month of March.
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NCMAU: Cadia Restarts, Processing Still Suspended

Worth Watching: 27 Mar 2018, 2:07 PM ET - NCMAU (Baa3/BBB-) is recommencing operations at Cadia East following a limited breakthrough of tailings material that was identified at the Cadia northern tailings facility embankment earlier this month. We note NCMAU is still prohibited from depo ..
Focused

NCMAU: Cadia Uncertainty, Down to Market Perform

IG Note: 19 Mar 2018, 5:32 AM ET - We take a look at the latest developments at the Cadia operation and potential risks for NCMAU bondholders.
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NCMAU: Cadia Suspension-Tailings Dam Breach

Worth Watching: 12 Mar 2018, 9:52 PM ET - NCMAU (Baa3/BBB-) announced over the weekend to the market a limited breakthrough at the Cadia northern tailings dam embankment. NCMAU has since suspended all mining and processing operations at Cadia as it carries out a comprehensive geotechnical ..

Tronox: EU Pauses Review of Cristal Merger

HY Note: 28 Feb 2018, 4:52 AM ET - The EU Commission paused its review of the Tronox/Cristal merger until it receives additional information from the two companies.  Although some may be alarmed, it is a fairly regular component of the EU Phase 2 process.
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NCMAU: Aussies Entrée into Ecuador

Worth Watching: 26 Feb 2018, 9:11 PM ET - NCMAU (Baa3/BBB-) announced to the market an investment of $250 mn in Lundin Gold to gain exposure to the Fruta del Norte greenfield development. Fruta del Norte is a world class gold deposit and the largest gold discovery to date in Ecuador. Ecua ..
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NCMAU: F1H18 Results; Guides To Better Half

Worth Watching: 18 Feb 2018, 8:22 PM ET - NCMAU (Baa3/BBB-) reported F1H18 sales of $1.72 bn and adjusted EBITDA of $627 mn, down 5% and 20%, respectively, from the prior year. F1H18 EBITDA missed analyst estimates of $657 mn. Gold production in F1H18 was 1.14 mn oz (-8%YoY) due to the ..

Metals 2018 Outlook: Valuations Over Fundamentals

Sector Outlook: 15 Jan 2018, 9:19 PM ET - We analyze the broad trends within the metals & mining sector, delve into sub-sector developments, and then examine name-specific recommendations.
Focused

Newcrest Mining: Cadia PC1 Production Restarts

Worth Watching: 13 Sep 2017, 9:06 PM ET - Newcrest Mining (Baa3/BBB-) has recommenced production at Cadia East's Panel Cave 1 (PC1) crusher chamber following the completion of the required remediation and upgrade work. Extraction of ore has now recommenced from two extraction drives, more ..
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NCMAU: Decent F2H17, Cadia Recovery Underway

Worth Watching: 14 Aug 2017, 7:09 PM ET - NCMAU (Baa3/BBB-) reported F2H17 sales of $1.67 bn and adjusted EBITDA of $639 mn, down 5% and 14%, respectively, from the prior year. F2H17 EBITDA missed analyst estimates of $768 mn. Of course, the story on everyone's minds is the aftermath of t ..
Focused

Newcrest Mining: F3Q17 Production; Cadia Update

Worth Watching: 01 May 2017, 9:22 PM ET - Newcrest Mining (Baa3/BBB-) posted F3Q17 production numbers that were slightly lower than expected. Group gold production fell 6% YoY and 3% QoQ to 598.6 koz, though AISC fell 1% YoY and 5% QoQ to $713/oz, a record low for the company. NCMAU attri ..
Focused

Newcrest Mining: Temporary Shutdown at Cadia

Worth Watching: 19 Apr 2017, 6:31 PM ET - Newcrest Mining (Baa3/BBB-) said that a large seismic event occurred in the region of the Cadia operation at 2:30 am local time on April 14th, resulting in underground mining being suspended until further notice. Fortunately, no injuries were sust ..

Met Coal: Supply Squeeze Sends Prices Soaring

Sector Analysis: 09 Apr 2017, 11:17 PM ET - We take a look at the sudden rally in met coal this past week and consider the short-term impacts.

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