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New Look Secured

New Look was founded by Tom Singh in 1969. South African investor Brait bought c. 90% from Apax and Permira in May 2015 for £780 mn valuing the company at £1.9 bn an EV of 9x. Tom Singh retains c. 10% and management incentives may dilute ownership further. New Look is number 2 in UK womenswear by market share and number 1 for under 35s (Kantar). The New Look fast fashion ethos was initially to react quickly to the latest trends, rather than trying to anticipate them although it has become more fashion forward recently. New Look now has over 590 stores in the UK, over 170 across Europe and Asia (including franchises) and manufactures in 1000 factories in over 45 countries. New Look has a comprehensive eCommerce strategy with web, mobile and in-store technology supplemented by selling through 3rd party providers like ASOS and Zalando. Around 15% of sales are online. Its website is functional and communicates an on-trend and affordable brand. International expansion has resulted in 127+ stores in China and 65% local sourcing. It is also expanding segmentally into Menswear and it now has 22 stores. (16 Oct 2017)

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IG European Consumer: 2019 Outlook Opinion Changes

Sector Outlook: 11 Dec 2018, 9:03 PM ET - We set out more on our six opinion changes in European food & beverage/HPC and retail for 2019, plus the initiation of Molson Coors, and give specific bond recommendations in order to execute them. 

IG European Consumer 2019: Known Unknowns

Sector Outlook: 06 Dec 2018, 10:03 PM ET - We have updated our frameworks for assessing RV in our high grade/crossover European food & bev/HPC and retail names for 2019, the 500th anniversary of the death of Leonardo da Vinci. We also initiate coverage on Molson Coors.

November 2018 Europe Company Recommendation Change

Euro Recommendation Changes: 02 Dec 2018, 9:51 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the twenty-two companies recommendation changes made on European companies during the month of November.
Focused

New Look F2Q18/19: The Other Shoe Drops

Earnings Note: 06 Nov 2018, 10:17 PM ET - The cost savings plan / CVA is the mainstay of the turnaround with product re-launches and the China exit, steps 2 and 3; the two main items pending, International and the capital structure, are next on the agenda and will drive valuation.

Euro IG Sector Snapshots: October 2018

Sector Analysis: 22 Oct 2018, 9:31 PM ET - Our updated one page snapshots of the Euro IG sectors.
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New Look F1Q18: Leopard(-skin) and Spots

Earnings Note: 07 Aug 2018, 9:48 PM ET - An ongoing turnaround in the UK business has fuelled a NL relief rally, but it remains over-levered and exposed to the cashflow drain of its interest. The current austerity drive is stabilising EBITDA but may derail bond upside ironically.

IG/Fallen Angel UK Retail: Second Half

Sector Outlook: 23 Jul 2018, 10:48 PM ET - Wm Morrison is our pick and Marks & Spencer our pan for 2H18 amongst the IG/Fallen Angel UK retailers. 

IG/Fallen Angels European Retail: Second Half

Sector Outlook: 12 Jul 2018, 9:48 PM ET - We have downgraded our opinion on Carrefour to Underperform and initiated on Richemont with an Outperform as a result of our IG/Fallen Angels European Retail 2H18 outlook. 

John Lewis Partnership: Bashing M&S

IG Note: 27 Jun 2018, 9:24 PM ET - John Lewis expects lower profits this year but the next phase of its strategy should worry M&S.      

Euro HY Conference 2018: Relative Value Panel

Transcript: 27 Jun 2018, 9:21 PM ET - What is the biggest threat to European HY credit: Italy, Brexit, EM, commodities, tech or Donald Trump? 

French Grocers: Property Off B/S Financing

Worth Watching: 24 Jun 2018, 10:33 PM ET - French Grocers have taken different approaches to financing their property book. The role of property in retail is worth watching. In the light of Casino's proposed sale and leaseback of part of its store portfolio, we thought it worth revisitin ..

Euro HY Conference 2018: HY Retail Transcript

Transcript: 19 Jun 2018, 10:53 PM ET - In this article, we transcribe our HY Retail presentation for CreditSights' 2018 Euro High Yield Conference in which took a closer look at some of the drivers of valuation in the space.
Focused

New Look FY17: This Time Next Year Rodney...

Earnings Note: 17 Jun 2018, 8:11 PM ET - The message on the FY17 call was that New Look is alive albeit not yet kicking. UK operations are twitching and the quarter was a major exercise in kitchen sinking. International and the balance sheet though are next in line for attention.

UK Retail Strategy: Brexit + Beast From The East

Strategy Analysis: 10 May 2018, 5:50 AM ET - An increase in the cost of imported goods triggered by the Brexit vote, the squeeze on consumer wages and the ‘Beast from the East’ have combined to dent the fortunes of UK retail.

IG European Retail: The Fin Services Opportunity

Sector Analysis: 09 Apr 2018, 10:48 PM ET - We examine the place of consumer finance services in our IG/fallen angel European retail coverage.  
Focused

New Look 3Q18: Twist

Earnings Note: 06 Feb 2018, 10:15 PM ET - Management asserted that a debt restructuring is not required and liquidity is sufficient to deliver a UK turnaround. However, no plan was outlined to extend the turnaround to the wider group especially International. We take a closer look.

Euro HY Consumer Outlook 2018

Sector Outlook: 16 Jan 2018, 9:00 PM ET - We take a look at the key themes in play in evaluating prospects in the Euro HY Consumer space and aim to provide a fundamental framework to analyse available investment options within our coverage universe.

IG/Fallen Angel UK Retail: Incomparable Christmas

Sector Analysis: 11 Jan 2018, 9:59 PM ET - Tesco, M&S, and John Lewis all reported 'Christmas' sales, each covering a different trading period.  

IG European Consumer: 2018 New Issuance

Sector Outlook: 21 Dec 2017, 9:59 PM ET - A brief look at possible investment grade and crossover European food & beverage and retail issuance in 2018.

2017 Euro Conference: High Yield RV Panel

Transcript: 14 Dec 2017, 5:59 PM ET - We provide the transcript from the high yield relative value panel at our 2017 European Conference, highlighting key credits across the Consumer, Banks, Construction, Building Materials, Services and TMT sectors.

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