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Navistar 3Q18: Another Strong Quarter

HY Note: 07 Sep 2018, 5:07 AM ET - Navistar reported another set of strong results and upwardly revised its FY18 guidance for the third time in as many quarters. We maintain our constructive view but acknowledge that uncertain trade dynamics could impact performance.

HY Note: US Autos Underperformance

HY Note: 07 Sep 2018, 5:06 AM ET - Automotive is the worst performing sector YTD within US HY bonds with excess returns of -3.8% vs +2.3% for ML HY Index. We have had a negative view on all the names driving these negative returns including ATD, TEN, ADNT and TSLA. 
Focused

Navistar Financial: $400 mn Term Loan for Dividend

Worth Watching: 19 Jul 2018, 11:08 AM ET - Navistar Financial , an infrequent borrower and the captive finance arm of high-yield truck maker Navistar Inc., is tapping the loan market with a $400 mn seven-year TLB. The loan will be used to fund a $150 mn distribution to the parent with t ..

Navistar 2Q18: VW Partnership Boon; Takeover Looms

HY Note: 05 Jun 2018, 9:09 PM ET - Navistar recorded robust 2Q18 results and upgraded its full year guidance for the second consecutive quarter thanks to sustained Class 8 demand strength.

VW: Why Do Buses Come in Threes?

IG Note: 15 Apr 2018, 10:24 PM ET - While we have already outlined our initial thoughts to the various changes taking place at VW, we take a closer look at segment valuations and the Truck and Bus unit.

HY Note: American Axle 8Y NC3 Notes

HY Note: 12 Mar 2018, 11:09 AM ET - AXL is issuing $350 mn 8Y NC3 notes to refinance $400 mn 6.25% 2021 notes that are concurrently being tendered for 101.875. We are constructive around AXL’s de-leveraging plan following the Metaldyne acquisition. Maintain outperform.  

Navistar 1Q18: Keep on Trucking

HY Note: 09 Mar 2018, 6:04 AM ET - NAV's strong results and upgraded its full year guidance against the backdrop of record Class 8 market outlook. Section 232 tariffs could provide a trucking boost in the short term, but we remain concerned around longer term economic impact

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

HY Note: US Autos Reprice

HY Note: 15 Feb 2018, 4:47 AM ET - YTD18 HY Automotive is among the worst-performing sectors at total returns of -2.0% vs. the HY Index at -0.9%. The recent HY redemption wave is likely driving some selling pressure on BB-rated lower-yielding auto paper. 
Focused

Navistar 4Q17: Wheels of Progress

Earnings Note: 19 Dec 2017, 1:43 PM ET - NAV’s results continued to improve in 4Q17 with the company poised to report even stronger results in 2018 against the backdrop of stellarindustry volumes. The VW Alliance is yielding results and positioning NAV well for the mega trends.

HY Note: Navistar Refi New Issue

HY Note: 02 Nov 2017, 11:25 AM ET - As expected, Navistar is in the market to issue $1.1 bn 8Y NC3 notes to refinance its existing 8.25% 2021 notes.  Above the mid 6% area, we view NAV bonds as a buy.  

Navistar 3Q17: Refinancing on the Horizon?

HY Note: 06 Sep 2017, 9:34 PM ET - An improving NA truck market is currently supporting NAV's results and the VW equity stake is anchoring it's credit story, setting the stage for the consideration of debt refinancing to extend maturities.

Navistar 2Q17: Near Term Pain, Long Term Gain?

Worth Watching: 07 Jun 2017, 10:35 PM ET - Navistar 2Q17 Against the backdrop of sustained end market weakness and resultant top line pressures NAV saw EBITDA (ex-NFS and based on our adjustments) decline once again in 2Q17, falling $115 mn YoY, to $32 mn. Even following this substantia ..

HY Note: US HY Autos Returns Snapshot

HY Note: 06 Jun 2017, 9:43 PM ET - US Automotive HY Index has underperformed the broader HY Index YTD given its higher quality BB-tier bias and a maturing US auto cycle. Subsector nuances include truck-exposed credits that are outperforming.

US IG Sector Recs: A Very "In Line" April

Sector Weightings: 09 May 2017, 5:22 AM ET - After a weak March the IG index returned to positive territory, but most sectors reported excess return within +/- 5bp of the overall index. We discuss performance and update our sector recommendations. 

US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017

Sector Weightings: 08 May 2017, 11:18 PM ET - Our US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017 includes spread, return and attribution data for many of the Level 3 and Level 4 sectors of the BAML Index.  We look at both monthly and year-to-date performance. 

Sector Update March 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 10 Apr 2017, 8:20 PM ET - The Industrials sector largely matched the widening seen in the IG Corp ate index, though significantly underperformed on an excess return basis. We continue to hold a largely negative view on the sector entering 2Q17.

Sector Update February 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 12 Mar 2017, 8:10 PM ET - February was a mixed month for Industrials sub-sectors, however aggregate excess return slightly outperformed the IG index. We also provide a summary of Industrials monthly IG supply and US Manufacturing ISM in our report.

Trump, Trade, Germany, and the EU

Strategy Analysis: 08 Mar 2017, 11:15 PM ET - The Trump team focuses on a bilateral deal with Germany distinct from the EU and sets the stage for more tension. We frame the US-Germany trade deficit for 2016 at the industry level.  Trade edges ahead of the Fed as a risk variable?

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