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Focused

Meritage Homes: Playing it Safe

Earnings Note: 25 Oct 2018, 7:41 PM ET - MTH reiterated that market conditions slowed in 3Q18 and remained lackluster through October month to date.  Profitability was strong in the quarter and cash flow remains strong as the company pulls back on land purchases. 

Homebuilding: Conference Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 03 Oct 2018, 4:13 AM ET - We present some takeaways from the IMN Real Estate Private Equity Forum on Land & Homebuilding Conference in Las Vegas last week.   

Big Homebuilders: Going to the Source

Sector Analysis: 27 Jul 2018, 4:49 AM ET - With crosscurrents in the headlines around prices, mortgage rates, changing regional demand, and shifting product growth expectations, it still comes down to builder strategies on price and costs, profit margins, and inventory management. 
Focused

DHI, PHM and MTH: Weighing In

Earnings Note: 26 Jul 2018, 9:54 PM ET - A trio of homebuilders reported quarterly results where the underlying trends remains supportive of continued homebuilding growth.  Profitability was strong with each reporting an increase in margins YoY.  
Focused

Meritage Homes: All In on Entry Level

Earnings Note: 26 Apr 2018, 5:39 PM ET - Meritage reported strong results during 1Q18 with homes sold up +9%, new orders +10.4% and backlog up +10.3%.  The company continues to expand its entry level offerings which will comprise the majority of land investments in FY18 and FY19. 
Focused

Homebuilders: Spring Showers or Flowers?

Sector Analysis: 24 Apr 2018, 4:24 AM ET - Homebuilder bonds were under pressure YTD18 as tight spreads, rising interest rates, and Fed tightening renewed fears of a slowdown and pressure on affordability. Fundamentals are still sound with leverage and liquidity in good shape. 

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.
Focused

Meritage Homes: In the Market

HY Note: 01 Mar 2018, 12:56 PM ET - Meritage is in the market with a $300 mn 10-year offering to repay revolver borrowings which included $175 mn to repay notes that matured March 1st. 

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 
Focused

Meritage and MDC: Solid Order Growth

Earnings Note: 01 Feb 2018, 9:54 PM ET - Meritage +20% and MDC +23% both reported strong new order growth in 4Q17 ending the year strong. The companies continue to increase their focus on the entry-level segment where demand trends remain encouraging.
Focused

Housing and Taxes: Wrong Multiplier Effect

Strategy Analysis: 08 Nov 2017, 3:44 AM ET - As the Congress scrambles to find revenue for majority vote machinations, the clear and direct multiplier effects of housing-related growth is getting tempered to support the theoretical, indirect benefits of corporate and estate tax cuts.
Focused

Meritage Homes: Encouraging Results in the East

Earnings Note: 27 Oct 2017, 3:16 PM ET - MTH revised lower the company’s FY17 expected home closings and revenue guidance due to weather delays from the hurricanes although overall trends remain solid. 
Focused

Homebuilders: MTH and MDC Bullish on Entry Level

Earnings Note: 01 Aug 2017, 5:33 PM ET - MTH and MDC results continue the favorable trend line for homebuilders with both posting solid results. Both continue to focus more on entry level product where buyer interest is accelerating and demand expected to remain strong. 
Focused

Housing: Mortgages, GSE Reform, Taxes

Strategy Analysis: 27 Jul 2017, 4:48 AM ET - Homebuilders are rolling along near capacity against the backdrop of Washington chaos while awaiting clarity on reform/deregulation in housing finance. The bigger macro variable for mortgage credit is existing homes and not builders.
Focused

US Strategy: Housing, Leverage, Quality

Strategy Analysis: 26 Jul 2017, 6:02 AM ET - We provide a top-down, summary look at the aggregate housing sector balance sheet, asset quality, and default metrics. The much-improved home equity profile of mortgaged properties and supply-demand balance does not signal trouble.

Homebuilding: Starts, Permits Fortify Story

Strategy Analysis: 20 Jul 2017, 5:27 AM ET - June home starts (+8.3%) and permits (+7.4%) rebounded from a weak May as the trajectory for the homebuilding markets remains positive with a handful of builders set to report results next week.  Slow growth remains the rolling trend. 

March 2017: Case-Shiller Home Prices

Worth Watching: 30 May 2017, 1:07 PM ET - March 2017 home prices continued to post gains with the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index continuing to post new highs while the 20-city index remains 5.4% below its peak.   Case-Shiller Home Price indexes continued to post gains in March ..
Focused

Meritage Homes: In the Market

HY Note: 22 May 2017, 11:41 AM ET - MTH is in the market with a $300 mn 10 year offering after receiving an upgrade at Fitch to BB.   Initial price talk on the MTH notes is 5.375% according to press reports. 

Homebuilding Snapshot: April Showers…?

Strategy Analysis: 16 May 2017, 1:59 PM ET - Headline April home construction numbers experienced a sequential stall but parsing the multi-family versus single-family and seasonal influences shows  the trajectory for homebuilders remains positive.

US IG Sector Recs: A Very "In Line" April

Sector Weightings: 09 May 2017, 5:22 AM ET - After a weak March the IG index returned to positive territory, but most sectors reported excess return within +/- 5bp of the overall index. We discuss performance and update our sector recommendations. 

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