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MDC Holdings: Colorado Holding Up

Earnings Note: 01 Nov 2018, 9:50 PM ET - MDC noted slowing order trends in 3Q18 which were up +1.6% in aggregate but down -4.1% on an absorption basis when considering community counts.  The company continues to focus on its Seasons entry-level product offering.

Homebuilding: Conference Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 03 Oct 2018, 4:13 AM ET - We present some takeaways from the IMN Real Estate Private Equity Forum on Land & Homebuilding Conference in Las Vegas last week.   
Focused

MDC Holdings: Making Progress

Earnings Note: 01 Aug 2018, 8:36 PM ET - MDC has made progress operationally in 1H18 and has experienced solid profitability gains and strong new order trends. Similar to industry peers the company has increasingly focused on entry level buyers where demand trends remain strong. 

Big Homebuilders: Going to the Source

Sector Analysis: 27 Jul 2018, 4:49 AM ET - With crosscurrents in the headlines around prices, mortgage rates, changing regional demand, and shifting product growth expectations, it still comes down to builder strategies on price and costs, profit margins, and inventory management. 
Focused

M.D.C. Holdings: Improving Gross Margins

Earnings Note: 04 May 2018, 9:58 AM ET - MDC reported strong results in 1Q18 with strong new order and absorption trends and improving gross margins.  We continue to favor the 2043 bonds at MDC and prefer other homebuilder names in the intermediate maturities. 
Focused

Homebuilders: Spring Showers or Flowers?

Sector Analysis: 24 Apr 2018, 4:24 AM ET - Homebuilder bonds were under pressure YTD18 as tight spreads, rising interest rates, and Fed tightening renewed fears of a slowdown and pressure on affordability. Fundamentals are still sound with leverage and liquidity in good shape. 

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

Meritage and MDC: Solid Order Growth

Earnings Note: 01 Feb 2018, 9:54 PM ET - Meritage +20% and MDC +23% both reported strong new order growth in 4Q17 ending the year strong. The companies continue to increase their focus on the entry-level segment where demand trends remain encouraging.
Focused

Housing and Taxes: Wrong Multiplier Effect

Strategy Analysis: 08 Nov 2017, 3:44 AM ET - As the Congress scrambles to find revenue for majority vote machinations, the clear and direct multiplier effects of housing-related growth is getting tempered to support the theoretical, indirect benefits of corporate and estate tax cuts.
Focused

MDC Holdings: Prices $150 mn Add-on

HY Note: 12 Oct 2017, 7:06 PM ET - MDC priced a $150 mn add-on to its 6% notes due 2043 at $97 or ~+337 bps. We prefer bonds of other builders to MDC in intermediates, but the long-dated 2043s offer relative value in a compressed market with industry fundamentals strong.
Focused

Homebuilders: MTH and MDC Bullish on Entry Level

Earnings Note: 01 Aug 2017, 5:33 PM ET - MTH and MDC results continue the favorable trend line for homebuilders with both posting solid results. Both continue to focus more on entry level product where buyer interest is accelerating and demand expected to remain strong. 
Focused

Housing: Mortgages, GSE Reform, Taxes

Strategy Analysis: 27 Jul 2017, 4:48 AM ET - Homebuilders are rolling along near capacity against the backdrop of Washington chaos while awaiting clarity on reform/deregulation in housing finance. The bigger macro variable for mortgage credit is existing homes and not builders.
Focused

US Strategy: Housing, Leverage, Quality

Strategy Analysis: 26 Jul 2017, 6:02 AM ET - We provide a top-down, summary look at the aggregate housing sector balance sheet, asset quality, and default metrics. The much-improved home equity profile of mortgaged properties and supply-demand balance does not signal trouble.

Homebuilding: Starts, Permits Fortify Story

Strategy Analysis: 20 Jul 2017, 5:27 AM ET - June home starts (+8.3%) and permits (+7.4%) rebounded from a weak May as the trajectory for the homebuilding markets remains positive with a handful of builders set to report results next week.  Slow growth remains the rolling trend. 

March 2017: Case-Shiller Home Prices

Worth Watching: 30 May 2017, 1:07 PM ET - March 2017 home prices continued to post gains with the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index continuing to post new highs while the 20-city index remains 5.4% below its peak.   Case-Shiller Home Price indexes continued to post gains in March ..

Homebuilding Snapshot: April Showers…?

Strategy Analysis: 16 May 2017, 1:59 PM ET - Headline April home construction numbers experienced a sequential stall but parsing the multi-family versus single-family and seasonal influences shows  the trajectory for homebuilders remains positive.

US IG Sector Recs: A Very "In Line" April

Sector Weightings: 09 May 2017, 5:22 AM ET - After a weak March the IG index returned to positive territory, but most sectors reported excess return within +/- 5bp of the overall index. We discuss performance and update our sector recommendations. 

US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017

Sector Weightings: 08 May 2017, 11:18 PM ET - Our US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017 includes spread, return and attribution data for many of the Level 3 and Level 4 sectors of the BAML Index.  We look at both monthly and year-to-date performance. 

Homebuilder Snapshot: Residential Resilience

Strategy Analysis: 25 Apr 2017, 4:29 PM ET - The March new home sales numbers from the Census had another solid month of YoY and 2nd best month since the crisis as the start of spring selling season sends favorable cyclical signs and highlights pent-up demand.

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