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L Brands

L Brands operates Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works, La Senza, PINK, and Henri Bendel stores. The company's primary focus is on the US, but it also operates company owned and franchised stores in international locations. While L Brands is fairly saturated in US store count, the company continues to invest in its omni-channel platform, and China (which the company has called out an area for future growth). L Brands continues to seek to recover sales by focusing on core business. The company has exited swimwear and has reduced catalog promotion. (20 Jul 2018)

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November 2018 US Retail Sales

Sector Analysis: 17 Dec 2018, 4:56 AM ET - November US retail sales came in mildly ahead of consensus, with signs that consumer momentum continues through the Holiday period. 
Focused

L Brands: Disposes of La Senza

Worth Watching: 13 Dec 2018, 9:50 PM ET - L Brands (Ba1/BB) announced that PE player, Regent LP, will be a "buyer" for its struggling La Senza lingerie operation. The transaction will not earn LB any cash upfront, but Regent will take on all La Senza liabilities. There is, however, an ..

US Inflation: Goods Inflation Is Back

Sector Analysis: 12 Dec 2018, 11:57 PM ET - Headline and core indexes both increased in line with expectations.  We highlight the first bought of YoY core goods inflation since 2016 and anecdotes of margin pressure from the most recent Beige Book.

IG European Consumer: 2019 Outlook Opinion Changes

Sector Outlook: 11 Dec 2018, 9:03 PM ET - We set out more on our six opinion changes in European food & beverage/HPC and retail for 2019, plus the initiation of Molson Coors, and give specific bond recommendations in order to execute them. 

US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.
Focused

L Brands: November Comps +9%

Worth Watching: 07 Dec 2018, 5:56 AM ET - L Brands reported a November comparable sales gain of 9%. The large discrepancy between net (+26%) and comparable sales was attributable to a reporting-calendar shift for the month of November. Inventories per sq. foot ended the month down 3% Yo ..

IG European Consumer 2019: Known Unknowns

Sector Outlook: 06 Dec 2018, 10:03 PM ET - We have updated our frameworks for assessing RV in our high grade/crossover European food & bev/HPC and retail names for 2019, the 500th anniversary of the death of Leonardo da Vinci. We also initiate coverage on Molson Coors.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.
Focused

L Brands 3Q18: Scaling Back Dividend, Bling

Earnings Note: 20 Nov 2018, 11:48 PM ET - L Brands announced a 50% cut to its generous dividend policy, freeing up $325mn a year for deleveraging. Efforts are underway to fix what ails VS and Pink, but the company remains in promise-mode on turnaround results thus far.

Undoing a J. Screwing: Retail Fraudulent Transfers

HY Note: 14 Nov 2018, 4:18 AM ET - We examine state and federal bankruptcy fraudulent transfer laws that may allow creditors to recover in the event a debtor has transferred assets to the detriment of creditors, with a particular focus on retail situations. 
Focused

L Brands: Oct. Comps +4%, Mild 3Q18 Guidance Bump

Worth Watching: 08 Nov 2018, 9:26 PM ET - L Brands (Ba1/BB) reported October comp results of +4% YoY, lapping a 2% YoY performance a year prior, and rounding out a +4% performance for the 3Q18 period. The performance was rewarded with a 6% pop to the share price (now up 42% from early- ..

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.

September 2018 US Retail Sales

Strategy Analysis: 16 Oct 2018, 5:15 AM ET - September retail sales came up a bit short of expectations, with some weather/storm impact likely a factor. A MoM slowdown in restaurants was a big factor in the miss, although the setback comes after multiple months of above-trend growth.

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 
Focused

L Brands: September '18 Comps +5%

Worth Watching: 11 Oct 2018, 10:27 PM ET - L Brands (Ba1/BB) reported September comp sales gains of 5% (vs a year-ago performance of -2%). As in recent months, the growth was dominated by BBW but the VS side of the business did get on the map in positive territory, with a +1% print.  ..

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

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