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LGI Homes: September Home Closings Down

Worth Watching: 04 Oct 2018, 12:29 PM ET - LGI Homes reported September home closings were down -11.8% YoY to 478 homes compared to 542 homes in September of last year.  In aggregate 3Q18 home closings were down -7.4% YoY to 1,601 compared to 1,729 in 3Q17.  By our calculations the orde ..

Homebuilding: Conference Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 03 Oct 2018, 4:13 AM ET - We present some takeaways from the IMN Real Estate Private Equity Forum on Land & Homebuilding Conference in Las Vegas last week.   

August 2018 Company Coverage Initiated

Company Coverage Initiated: 02 Sep 2018, 9:48 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the four companies on which we launched coverage in North America and Europe during the month of August.
Focused

LGI Homes: Initiating Coverage

Company Spotlight: 24 Aug 2018, 5:15 AM ET - LGIH is a fast-growing builder with a unique 100% spec strategy targeted towards entry-level buyers. Results have been impressive since its 2013 IPO and trends remain encouraging for future growth. We initiate at Market Perform.
Focused

Credit Profile: LGI Homes

Company Spotlight: 23 Aug 2018, 8:57 PM ET - LGI Homes posses a unique 100% spec home strategy focused on entry level buyers. The split rated B1/BB rated company has grown rapidly through organic growth and has a stable credit profile in line with its ratings.  

Big Homebuilders: Going to the Source

Sector Analysis: 27 Jul 2018, 4:49 AM ET - With crosscurrents in the headlines around prices, mortgage rates, changing regional demand, and shifting product growth expectations, it still comes down to builder strategies on price and costs, profit margins, and inventory management. 

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

US IG Sector Recs: A Very "In Line" April

Sector Weightings: 09 May 2017, 5:22 AM ET - After a weak March the IG index returned to positive territory, but most sectors reported excess return within +/- 5bp of the overall index. We discuss performance and update our sector recommendations. 

US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017

Sector Weightings: 08 May 2017, 11:18 PM ET - Our US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017 includes spread, return and attribution data for many of the Level 3 and Level 4 sectors of the BAML Index.  We look at both monthly and year-to-date performance. 

Sector Update March 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 10 Apr 2017, 8:20 PM ET - The Industrials sector largely matched the widening seen in the IG Corp ate index, though significantly underperformed on an excess return basis. We continue to hold a largely negative view on the sector entering 2Q17.

Homebuilding Snapshot: Prices Tell a Story

Strategy Analysis: 23 Mar 2017, 3:17 PM ET - We frame the trend line in new home vs. existing home sales and the wider gap between median and average prices for new homes.  The low end is picking up, but the $500K+ and $750K+ segment is holding in.  

Sector Update February 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 12 Mar 2017, 8:10 PM ET - February was a mixed month for Industrials sub-sectors, however aggregate excess return slightly outperformed the IG index. We also provide a summary of Industrials monthly IG supply and US Manufacturing ISM in our report.

Trump, Trade, Germany, and the EU

Strategy Analysis: 08 Mar 2017, 11:15 PM ET - The Trump team focuses on a bilateral deal with Germany distinct from the EU and sets the stage for more tension. We frame the US-Germany trade deficit for 2016 at the industry level.  Trade edges ahead of the Fed as a risk variable?

US Taxes: Interest Deductibility, Par Call Fear

Sector Analysis: 27 Feb 2017, 3:42 PM ET - We look into recent inquiries on interest deductibility issues and redemption risk.  Finding special tax redemption provisions can be a needles-and-haystacks exercise. The good news is "tailored" interest deduction language is hard to find.

Homebuilder Snapshot: High Price Crowd Weighs In

Sector Analysis: 23 Feb 2017, 5:59 AM ET - Strong existing home sales came on the same day that Toll Brothers, TRI Pointe, and William Lyon weighed in from their perch as the three priciest homebuilders in our universe based on ASPs.  The guidance was steady and confident.

Sector Update January 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 09 Feb 2017, 8:14 PM ET - Within the Industrials sector, only Automotives were able to modestly outperform the US Corp index. After this run, coupled with fundamental concerns, we downgrade our rec on Autos to Underperform.  

US Manufacturing: Industrial Production Picks Pace

Worth Watching: 18 Jan 2017, 12:24 PM ET - US Manufacturing Federal Reserve reported Industrial Production data for December came in better than expected and, on the surface, underscored positive momentum to end the year with December activity up 0.8% MoM and up 0.5% YoY. However, we hi ..

US Strategy: Import Tax Pain Ahead?

Strategy Analysis: 03 Jan 2017, 11:03 PM ET - We look at some risks of corporate tax proposals tied to "border adjustments" (i.e. import taxes). Economist advocates make major assumptions on currencies and ignore the wildcard of "behavior" and potential responses to the policies.

US Manufacturing ISM: Ends 2016 on Solid Footing

Worth Watching: 03 Jan 2017, 2:57 PM ET - US Manufacturing ISM: For US manufacturing in 2017, all eyes will be on new trade policies and fiscal stimulus under the new Trump Administration and how that will impact the manufacturing trends in the country. Clearly more US-domiciled manufa ..

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