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Mondelez

MDLZ is one of the world's largest snack companies with global net revenues of $25.6 billion in 2017. After Kraft Foods Inc spun-off its N. American grocery operations in 2012, the remaining business became Mondelez. MDLZ portfolio includes many iconic snack brands including Oreo, Nabisco, LU, and belVita biscuits; Milka, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Cadbury, and Toberlone chocolate; Trident gum; Halls candy and Tang powdered beverages. The brands span five categories: Biscuits, Chocolate, Gum & Candy, Beverages, and Cheese & Grocery. MDLZ has a portfolio of brands it calls Power Brands, which includes several $1bn brands that account for nearly 70% of annual sales. Examples of Power brands include Oreo, Cadbury, and Trident gum. MDLZ is organized around four geographical segments. By proportion of 2017 revenue, the regions are Latin America (14%), Asia Middle East and Africa (22%), Europe (38%) and North America (27%). (20 Sep 2018)

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US Inflation: Goods Inflation Is Back

Sector Analysis: 12 Dec 2018, 11:57 PM ET - Headline and core indexes both increased in line with expectations.  We highlight the first bought of YoY core goods inflation since 2016 and anecdotes of margin pressure from the most recent Beige Book.

IG European Consumer: 2019 Outlook Opinion Changes

Sector Outlook: 11 Dec 2018, 9:03 PM ET - We set out more on our six opinion changes in European food & beverage/HPC and retail for 2019, plus the initiation of Molson Coors, and give specific bond recommendations in order to execute them. 

US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

IG European Consumer 2019: Known Unknowns

Sector Outlook: 06 Dec 2018, 10:03 PM ET - We have updated our frameworks for assessing RV in our high grade/crossover European food & bev/HPC and retail names for 2019, the 500th anniversary of the death of Leonardo da Vinci. We also initiate coverage on Molson Coors.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.
Focused

Campbell Soup: Activism & Asset Sales, the Latest

Worth Watching: 11 Nov 2018, 9:43 PM ET - Campbell Soup (Baa2/BBB-): The saga with Dan Loeb continued last week with several proxy exchanges between the activist and the company that found the two entities still at odds with each other, despite reports of other shareholders encouraging ..

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 
Focused

Mondelez 3Q18: Snacking Shows Resilience

Earnings Note: 30 Oct 2018, 1:03 AM ET - MDLZ reported a good quarter marked by solid margin improvement and positive organic sales growth, particularly in emerging markets. North America, however, was a weak spot. 

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

US Employment: 3.0% Wage Growth on the Horizon

Strategy Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 12:24 PM ET - September nonfarm payrolls disappointed on the headline number, but under the surface, the report was solid.  Wages posted another strong gain and are just one tick away from the 3.0% YoY milestone.

US Income & Spending: Consumption Stays On Track

Strategy Analysis: 01 Oct 2018, 6:11 AM ET - The August income & spending report contained another solid reading for consumer spending, continued income growth, and modest inflation. We dig into the pricing environment for a few discretionary spending categories.

US Employment: Finally, A Wage Growth Surprise

Strategy Analysis: 07 Sep 2018, 4:06 PM ET - The August employment report contained the long-awaited breakout in wage growth to a new cycle high. Payroll growth was also solid, and we highlight our outlook for it going forward.

US Income & Spending: Inflation Momentum Fading?

Strategy Analysis: 30 Aug 2018, 2:43 PM ET - July consumer spending and income increased largely as expected, providing a solid start to 3Q spending. The core PCE deflator hit the Fed’s 2.0% target. We highlight that the recent inflation data have cooled some from earlier this year.

July 2018 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 31 Jul 2018, 9:39 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the thirty-nine company recommendation changes made on North American companies during the month of July.
Focused

Mondelez 2Q18: What's Next?

Earnings Note: 25 Jul 2018, 10:22 PM ET - MDLZ reported a good 2Q18 but with uncertainty around the next phase of the company's strategy we are taking a more neutral view and awaiting further clarity. Management plans to reveal the next strategy iteration in September. 

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