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Kinross Gold

Kinross is the 4th largest gold producer in the world based on 2017 figures (5th in 2016). The company produced 2.7 mn equivalent ounces of gold in 2017, and expects to produce ~2.5 mn equivalent ounces in 2018. Its most productive mine in 2017 remains the Kupol mine in Russia, which produced 580 koz of gold. For FY18, 60% of KCN's production is expected to come from the Americas, 20% from Russia, and 20% from West Africa. Given the strong presence in emerging markets, the company is exposed to less politically stable regions and emerging market risk. As of 12/31/17, KCN had 25.9 mn ounces of proven and probable gold reserves, based on a price assumption of $1,200/oz. The 5.1 mn ounces decrease from the end of 2016 was primarily due to the sale of Cerro Casale. (20 Nov 2018)

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Transcript: 2018 IG & Crossover Conf-Basics Panel

Transcript: 11 Dec 2018, 5:51 AM ET - We present a transcript of the Basic Industries Panel discussion given at the CreditSights Investment Grade & Crossover conference on December 4, 2018.
Focused

Kinross: EM Risk Manageable, Buy 2027s

IG Note: 28 Nov 2018, 4:09 AM ET - We take an in-depth look at KCN, relative value, EM risks in the name, and a potential catalyst for spread tightening. 
Focused

KCN: 3Q18 Results Disappoint

Worth Watching: 08 Nov 2018, 9:23 PM ET - KCN (Ba1/BBB-/BBB-) reported 3Q18 sales of $754 mn and adjusted EBITDA of $156 mn, down 9% and 46% YoY, respectively. 3Q18 EBITDA was below consensus estimates of $237 mn due to lower production and sales, lower realized gold prices, and higher co ..

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

Arconic: LBO Rumors Continue

Worth Watching: 09 Oct 2018, 3:37 PM ET - Arconic (Ba2/BBB-/BB+): LBO rumors continue to swirl. According to Reuters, Blackstone, Carlyle, Onex, and Canada Pension have made a joint bid to acquire ARNC. The report also noted that the PE consortium is competing with Apollo in the bidding p ..

Asia Credit: New York City Investor Meetings

Strategy Analysis: 03 Oct 2018, 12:13 AM ET - Our Asia corporate analysts spent two days meeting investors in New York earlier this month. We met a mix of investor types, including US and non-US based asset managers, investment advisers, investment banks, hedge funds and private banks.

FCX: Landmark Grasberg Deal Signing

Worth Watching: 30 Sep 2018, 10:35 PM ET - FCX (Ba2/BB) and Rio Tinto signed a binding agreement to sell their stakes in the Grasberg mine to PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminum (Inalum). The terms are roughly in-line with what was reported in July when the parties signed a nonbinding agreement ( ..

HK/SG Conference 2018: Commodities

Transcript: 06 Aug 2018, 6:14 AM ET - Transcript of our commodities presentation from CreditSights' SG/HK conferences outlining our top-down views on commodities and single name recommendations.
Focused

KCN: 2Q18 Results, Guidance Reiterated

Worth Watching: 05 Aug 2018, 10:12 PM ET - KCN (Ba1/BBB-/BBB-) reported 2Q18 sales of $775 mn and adjusted EBITDA of $237 mn, down 11% and 23% YoY, respectively. 2Q18 EBITDA was below consensus estimates of $267 mn due to lower production and higher costs, partially offset by higher averag ..

US IG Strategy: Picks and Pans (July 2018)

Strategy Analysis: 23 Jul 2018, 4:36 AM ET - In this document we summarize our sector recommendations, and provide a few names within each that we like (picks) and dislike (pans). Our Picks and Pans reflect our analysts' current views. 

Coal Producers: Exposure to Potential Retirements

Sector Analysis: 28 Jun 2018, 5:16 AM ET - As part of our continued coverage of coal producer exposure to plant retirements, we have analyzed coal plant data to determine which basins and coal producers have the greatest exposure to unplanned, but at risk, coal plant retirements.  
Focused

Kinross 1Q18: EM Risk Rises

Earnings Note: 09 May 2018, 9:18 PM ET - EM risk in Russia and now Mauritania is weighing on KCN's equity and bonds.

US IG Strategy: Picks and Pans (April 2018)

Strategy Analysis: 26 Apr 2018, 4:43 AM ET - In this document we summarize our sector recommendations, and provide a few names within each that we like (picks) and dislike (pans). Our Picks and Pans reflect our analysts' current views. 
Focused

Kinross Gold: Migrating to IG, Maintain O/P

Worth Watching: 22 Mar 2018, 3:12 PM ET - Kinross Gold (Ba1/BBB-/BBB-) just got upgraded by S&P from BB+ to BBB- and will now migrate to investment grade at the end of this month. KCN is a gold mining credit that we have highlighted as a potential rising star that could get upgraded in ea ..

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Tronox: EU Pauses Review of Cristal Merger

HY Note: 28 Feb 2018, 4:52 AM ET - The EU Commission paused its review of the Tronox/Cristal merger until it receives additional information from the two companies.  Although some may be alarmed, it is a fairly regular component of the EU Phase 2 process.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

Metals: U.S. Protectionism Comes to a Head

Sector Analysis: 19 Feb 2018, 11:06 PM ET - Our thoughts on the Commerce Department's proposed Section 232 tariffs/quotas on steel and aluminum imports and the implications on various industries. 
Focused

KCN: Decent 4Q17 Results, Will M&A Delay IG?

Worth Watching: 15 Feb 2018, 3:12 PM ET - KCN (Ba1/BB+/BBB-) reported 4Q17 sales of $810 mn and adjusted EBITDA of $315 mn, down 10% and up 52%, respectively. 4Q17 EBITDA was slightly below consensus estimate of $317 mn. Overall, 4Q17 was weaker than expected, while KCN is forecasting low ..

CREDITSIGHTS WEBCAST: EVs, Autos and Metals

Worth Watching: 29 Jan 2018, 6:04 PM ET - CREDITSIGHTS WEBCAST: The mega trend around vehicle electrification is set to meaningfully impact a number of sectors, changing the landscape in a disruptive fashion that will make for significant divergence between the winners and losers. Who wil ..

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