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Homebuilding: Conference Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 03 Oct 2018, 4:13 AM ET - We present some takeaways from the IMN Real Estate Private Equity Forum on Land & Homebuilding Conference in Las Vegas last week.   

Big Homebuilders: Going to the Source

Sector Analysis: 27 Jul 2018, 4:49 AM ET - With crosscurrents in the headlines around prices, mortgage rates, changing regional demand, and shifting product growth expectations, it still comes down to builder strategies on price and costs, profit margins, and inventory management. 
Focused

KB Home: Demand Not Slowing

Earnings Note: 28 Jun 2018, 9:27 PM ET - KBH turned in a strong 2Q18 with home sales revenue and margins coming in better than company expectations.  Demand trends and operatremains strong and KBH is set to end FY18 with total debt to capital within its stated range of 40% to 50%.
Focused

KB Home: Repaying $300 mn 6/15/18 maturity w/cash

Worth Watching: 15 May 2018, 9:30 PM ET - KB Home announced that it intends to repay its $300 mn 7.25% of June 15, 2018 notes with cash on hand.  This was first disclosed at the JPM Homebuilding & Building Materials Conference earlier today and subsequently disclosed in an 8k filing.  ..
Focused

Homebuilders: Spring Showers or Flowers?

Sector Analysis: 24 Apr 2018, 4:24 AM ET - Homebuilder bonds were under pressure YTD18 as tight spreads, rising interest rates, and Fed tightening renewed fears of a slowdown and pressure on affordability. Fundamentals are still sound with leverage and liquidity in good shape. 
Focused

KBH: Demand Trends Remain Strong

Earnings Note: 23 Mar 2018, 11:13 AM ET - KBH reported solid 1Q18 operating results but more importantly the underlying tone remains constructive on demand trends for this homebuilder which has ~50% exposure to the first-time buyer segment.  Buyer traffic levels remain solid.

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 
Focused

Housing and Taxes: Wrong Multiplier Effect

Strategy Analysis: 08 Nov 2017, 3:44 AM ET - As the Congress scrambles to find revenue for majority vote machinations, the clear and direct multiplier effects of housing-related growth is getting tempered to support the theoretical, indirect benefits of corporate and estate tax cuts.

September 2017 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 01 Oct 2017, 3:20 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the fifteen company recommendation changes made on US companies during the month of September.
Focused

KB Home: Wild West

Earnings Note: 28 Sep 2017, 9:54 PM ET - KBH is the first builder to report since Harvey and Irma hit and the impact was relative minor for it.  Demand remains strong across its markets and from first time buyers which were 53% of deliveries in 3Q17.
Focused

Housing: Mortgages, GSE Reform, Taxes

Strategy Analysis: 27 Jul 2017, 4:48 AM ET - Homebuilders are rolling along near capacity against the backdrop of Washington chaos while awaiting clarity on reform/deregulation in housing finance. The bigger macro variable for mortgage credit is existing homes and not builders.
Focused

US Strategy: Housing, Leverage, Quality

Strategy Analysis: 26 Jul 2017, 6:02 AM ET - We provide a top-down, summary look at the aggregate housing sector balance sheet, asset quality, and default metrics. The much-improved home equity profile of mortgaged properties and supply-demand balance does not signal trouble.

Homebuilding: Starts, Permits Fortify Story

Strategy Analysis: 20 Jul 2017, 5:27 AM ET - June home starts (+8.3%) and permits (+7.4%) rebounded from a weak May as the trajectory for the homebuilding markets remains positive with a handful of builders set to report results next week.  Slow growth remains the rolling trend. 
Focused

KB Homes: Solid Quarter

Earnings Note: 28 Jun 2017, 12:56 PM ET - KBH posted solid 2Q17 results with revenues up +23.6% YoY driven by a +10.8% increase in home deliveries and +11.3% ASP growth.  California continues to be a bright spot for this CA based builder with a focus on the entry-level segment.  

March 2017: Case-Shiller Home Prices

Worth Watching: 30 May 2017, 1:07 PM ET - March 2017 home prices continued to post gains with the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index continuing to post new highs while the 20-city index remains 5.4% below its peak.   Case-Shiller Home Price indexes continued to post gains in March ..

Homebuilding Snapshot: April Showers…?

Strategy Analysis: 16 May 2017, 1:59 PM ET - Headline April home construction numbers experienced a sequential stall but parsing the multi-family versus single-family and seasonal influences shows  the trajectory for homebuilders remains positive.

US IG Sector Recs: A Very "In Line" April

Sector Weightings: 09 May 2017, 5:22 AM ET - After a weak March the IG index returned to positive territory, but most sectors reported excess return within +/- 5bp of the overall index. We discuss performance and update our sector recommendations. 

US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017

Sector Weightings: 08 May 2017, 11:18 PM ET - Our US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017 includes spread, return and attribution data for many of the Level 3 and Level 4 sectors of the BAML Index.  We look at both monthly and year-to-date performance. 

Homebuilder Snapshot: Residential Resilience

Strategy Analysis: 25 Apr 2017, 4:29 PM ET - The March new home sales numbers from the Census had another solid month of YoY and 2nd best month since the crisis as the start of spring selling season sends favorable cyclical signs and highlights pent-up demand.

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