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Hovnanian: Same Story, Less Optimism

Earnings Note: 06 Dec 2018, 9:53 PM ET - The HOV story remains the same with a focus on getting communities online to reverse revenue declines. The negative variances on lower community counts and home sales underscores the challenge.

Homebuilding: Conference Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 03 Oct 2018, 4:13 AM ET - We present some takeaways from the IMN Real Estate Private Equity Forum on Land & Homebuilding Conference in Las Vegas last week.   

CDS: Trust the Players, Love the Game?

Company Analysis: 12 Sep 2018, 4:58 AM ET - We provide an update on changes in market practice following recent shenanigans based on our discussions with various CDS participants.  We also summarize recommended changes to CDS practices to address participants' concerns. 

CDS and Restructurings: Historical Perspective

HY Note: 10 Aug 2018, 4:50 AM ET - We examine the role of CDS in distressed restructurings, as well as recent transactions where CDS trades played an important role and discuss our thoughts on the implications of these transactions on the synthetic market generally. 

Big Homebuilders: Going to the Source

Sector Analysis: 27 Jul 2018, 4:49 AM ET - With crosscurrents in the headlines around prices, mortgage rates, changing regional demand, and shifting product growth expectations, it still comes down to builder strategies on price and costs, profit margins, and inventory management. 

June 2018 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 01 Jul 2018, 9:55 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the thirteen company recommendation changes made on North American companies during the month of June.

Hovnanian: Move to Underperform

Earnings Note: 08 Jun 2018, 4:41 AM ET - HOV operating results continue to post unfavorable YoY variances while investors remain focused on when community count growth will be achieved.  

Hovnanian: Cures Default, CDS Case Settled

HY Note: 31 May 2018, 5:06 AM ET - Solus and GSO embrace the cause of less legal and regulatory intrusion and settle the HOV CDS case as the greater good prevails over the potential for a bigger mess.  HOV pays the coupon and cures default but the refi benefits are intact. 

Hovnanian: Discretion, Valor, CDS

HY Note: 14 May 2018, 11:53 AM ET - HOV fails on the latest exchange offer and consent solicitation as tension rises for a self-regulatory fix before the regulators take a harder look and get more involved.

Hovnanian: Exchange Term Updates/Withdrawn Tenders

HY Note: 30 Apr 2018, 1:55 PM ET - HOV extends the exchange deadline and disclosed it now only has $6 mn in valid tenders as of last Friday.  Regulatory bodies have begun to speak up. 

Hovnanian: Lowers Exchange Minimum, Plot Thickens

HY Note: 24 Apr 2018, 12:58 PM ET - HOV lowered the exchange minimum to $50 mn and announced it has received enough tenders to meet the minimum threshold.  The CDS drama takes another twist.  

Homebuilders: Spring Showers or Flowers?

Sector Analysis: 24 Apr 2018, 4:24 AM ET - Homebuilder bonds were under pressure YTD18 as tight spreads, rising interest rates, and Fed tightening renewed fears of a slowdown and pressure on affordability. Fundamentals are still sound with leverage and liquidity in good shape. 

Hovnanian: Amends Exchange Terms, Still Weak

HY Note: 16 Apr 2018, 12:13 PM ET - HOV improved exchange terms that are still weak for holders of the 10% and 10.5% secured notes unless they carry the CDS axe.  The financial media refocused on the CDS drama and other potential twists in the story.

Hovnanian: Doubling Down

HY Note: 06 Apr 2018, 12:42 PM ET - In a fresh twist in the HOV CDS drama, a new exchange may have the end game of creating more deeply discounted unsecured deliverables.   ISDA may make changes ahead, but this drama rolls on.  

Hovnanian: Time to Put Up

Earnings Note: 08 Mar 2018, 4:21 PM ET - We look at HOV’s 1Q18 operating results. HOV still faces litigation, but has closed a majority of the GSO refinancing.  Limited growth investments in FY16 and FY17 continue to negatively impact reported results.      

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

Hovnanian: Extends consent for 2022 bonds

Worth Watching: 16 Jan 2018, 2:14 PM ET - Hovnanian disclosed in an 8-K filing that the company received the required consents to amend the indenture for the $400 mn 10.5% of 2024 senior secured notes and extended the consent solicitation on the $440 mn 10% of 2022 notes.  Gaining requ ..

Hovnanian: Axes Battle, Battle Axes

HY Note: 12 Jan 2018, 1:25 PM ET - Solus weighs in with the expected litigation on the HOV CDS gambit. The legal strategy appears to focus on material disclosure issues (reliance, omissions, etc.) with a litany of other sharp legal barbs to challenge the deals.

Hovnanian: Gaming the System

HY Note: 29 Dec 2017, 2:33 PM ET - HOV filings (and an 8-K re-filing to correct an error) lay out the game plan for the refinancing of the 2019 unsecured bonds and related CDS maneuvering.  The refinancing block is almost checked at least. Litigation lies dead ahead.

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