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Hospitality Properties

HPT owns 325 hotels (~50,000 rooms) and 199 travel centers. Hotels comprised 86.4% of 3Q18 revenue. Hotels are managed under agreements with Marriott, InterContinental, Hyatt, Carlson, Sonesta, Wyndham, and Morgans. Travel centers are operated by TravelCenters of America (TA), in which HPT holds a minority stake. Most of HPT's hotel operating agreements have an owner's priority, whereby HPT receives a minimum return from hotel managers, paid before base management fees. This contrasts with "typical" lodging REITs, where base management fees are an operating expense of the hotel and are paid ahead of any profit distribution to the owner. HPT has no employees. Management is outsourced to RMR Group. RMR was owned by the late Barry Portnoy, whose son Adam Portnoy serves on HPT's board. Payment to RMR had been based on the historic cost of the real estate assets. HPT acquired a 16% stake in RMR in June 2015 along with three other REITs for a total economic interest of 48%. (14 Dec 2018)

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November 2018 US Retail Sales

Sector Analysis: 17 Dec 2018, 4:56 AM ET - November US retail sales came in mildly ahead of consensus, with signs that consumer momentum continues through the Holiday period. 

US Inflation: Goods Inflation Is Back

Sector Analysis: 12 Dec 2018, 11:57 PM ET - Headline and core indexes both increased in line with expectations.  We highlight the first bought of YoY core goods inflation since 2016 and anecdotes of margin pressure from the most recent Beige Book.

US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.
Focused

HPT: 3Q18 - Wage Increases and Renovations

Worth Watching: 06 Nov 2018, 11:17 PM ET - HPT (Sr unsec: Baa2/BBB-) reported 3Q18 revenues of $606mn, up 4.4% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA rose 0.4% during the same period to $223mn. Comparable hotel RevPAR fell 0.5% to $101.75, driven by a 180bps decline in occupancy to 77.8%, partially of ..

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.

Retail REITs: Sears Bankruptcy as Opportunity

Worth Watching: 15 Oct 2018, 1:28 PM ET - Retail REITs: With the news that Sears is (finally?) filing for bankruptcy, we size REIT exposures to the long-struggling retailer and see the impacts as broadly manageable. From an operating performance perspective, the vast majority of REITs see ..

REIT/CRE 3Q18 Preview: What We're Watching

Sector Analysis: 12 Oct 2018, 5:57 AM ET - We lay out what we're watching as we head into 3Q18 earnings, for property types, individual credits, and with a macro component given the breadth and depth of economic touch points for U.S. real estate.

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

US Employment: 3.0% Wage Growth on the Horizon

Strategy Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 12:24 PM ET - September nonfarm payrolls disappointed on the headline number, but under the surface, the report was solid.  Wages posted another strong gain and are just one tick away from the 3.0% YoY milestone.

US Income & Spending: Consumption Stays On Track

Strategy Analysis: 01 Oct 2018, 6:11 AM ET - The August income & spending report contained another solid reading for consumer spending, continued income growth, and modest inflation. We dig into the pricing environment for a few discretionary spending categories.

Register Now: 2018 Global Financials Seminars

Announcement: 10 Sep 2018, 9:51 PM ET - Register for our upcoming fifth annual Global Financials Seminars.

US Employment: Finally, A Wage Growth Surprise

Strategy Analysis: 07 Sep 2018, 4:06 PM ET - The August employment report contained the long-awaited breakout in wage growth to a new cycle high. Payroll growth was also solid, and we highlight our outlook for it going forward.

US Income & Spending: Inflation Momentum Fading?

Strategy Analysis: 30 Aug 2018, 2:43 PM ET - July consumer spending and income increased largely as expected, providing a solid start to 3Q spending. The core PCE deflator hit the Fed’s 2.0% target. We highlight that the recent inflation data have cooled some from earlier this year.

REITs/CRE 2Q18: How Are Property Types Performing?

Sector Analysis: 22 Aug 2018, 5:10 AM ET - In Part 2 of our REITs/CRE 2Q18 review, we delve into the recent trends—both operating fundamentals and capital markets—across the five major property types as we take the pulse of the different underlying asset classes.

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