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Hilton

As of June 30, Hilton managed, franchised, or owned 5,456 hotels and resorts, totaling ~879,000 rooms in 106 countries. The Hilton corporate umbrella includes Hilton Hotels & Resorts, Waldorf Astoria, Canopy, Curio, Tapestry, Tru, Conrad, DoubleTree, Embassy Suites, Hilton Garden Inn, Hampton Inn, Homewood Suites, Home2 Suites, and Hilton Grand Vacations (timeshares). HLT has nearly 2,400 hotels (362,000 rooms) in the pipeline, more than half of which are located outside the United States. HLT spun out into three separate companies on January 3, 2017: legacy HLT, Park Hotels, and Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV). HLT's brands are concentrated in the Upper Upscale, Upscale, and Upper Midscale chain scales. In 2017, the company earned system-wide RevPAR of $109.27 with a 75.5% occupancy rate and a $144.78 ADR, up 2.5%, 120 bps, and 0.9%, respectively. (03 Oct 2018)

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US Inflation: Goods Inflation Is Back

Sector Analysis: 12 Dec 2018, 11:57 PM ET - Headline and core indexes both increased in line with expectations.  We highlight the first bought of YoY core goods inflation since 2016 and anecdotes of margin pressure from the most recent Beige Book.

US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.
Focused

Hilton: 3Q18 - US Growth Trails International

Worth Watching: 24 Oct 2018, 3:03 PM ET - Hilton (Sr Unsec Ba2/BB+) reported 3Q18 net revenues of $944mn, up 5% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA rose 9% YoY to $557mn, at the top end of the 2Q18 forecast of $540-560mn. System-wide comparable currency-neutral RevPAR rose 2% YoY, below prior guidance ..

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

US Employment: 3.0% Wage Growth on the Horizon

Strategy Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 12:24 PM ET - September nonfarm payrolls disappointed on the headline number, but under the surface, the report was solid.  Wages posted another strong gain and are just one tick away from the 3.0% YoY milestone.
Focused

Hilton & Hyatt: Reportedly Eyeing Belmond

Worth Watching: 02 Oct 2018, 10:37 PM ET - Hilton & Hyatt: Belmond, the lodging and leisure company being shopped by Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, is under consideration by both Hilton (Sr Unsec: Ba2/BB+) and Hyatt (Sr Unsec: Baa2/BBB) for an acquisition of all or part of the company, accor ..

US Income & Spending: Consumption Stays On Track

Strategy Analysis: 01 Oct 2018, 6:11 AM ET - The August income & spending report contained another solid reading for consumer spending, continued income growth, and modest inflation. We dig into the pricing environment for a few discretionary spending categories.

US Employment: Finally, A Wage Growth Surprise

Strategy Analysis: 07 Sep 2018, 4:06 PM ET - The August employment report contained the long-awaited breakout in wage growth to a new cycle high. Payroll growth was also solid, and we highlight our outlook for it going forward.

US Income & Spending: Inflation Momentum Fading?

Strategy Analysis: 30 Aug 2018, 2:43 PM ET - July consumer spending and income increased largely as expected, providing a solid start to 3Q spending. The core PCE deflator hit the Fed’s 2.0% target. We highlight that the recent inflation data have cooled some from earlier this year.
Focused

Hilton: 2Q18 - Travel Unaffected by Trade Rhetoric

Worth Watching: 25 Jul 2018, 2:29 PM ET - Hilton (Ba3/BB+) reported 2Q18 net revenue of $961mn, up 8.5% YoY, driven by a 13.8% increase in management and franchise fee revenue. Adjusted EBITDA rose 9.4% YoY to $522mn. US RevPAR rose 3.5% YoY, led by strong group demand (especially comp ..

Consumer/Pharma: Cross-Sector Rel Val Analysis

Sector Analysis: 19 Jul 2018, 4:27 AM ET - In this report, we juxtapose OAS and leverage levels across on-the-run non-cyclical credits in the F&B and Pharma space. M&A has elevated leverage for several names, so we aim to help investors find the best spread while managing risk.

July Beige Book: Tariffs Front & Center

Sector Analysis: 19 Jul 2018, 4:26 AM ET - We parse the July Beige Book for anecdotes on the impact of tariffs. It’s clear they’re contributing to rising input costs across the US.

F&B: M&A Elevates BBB Leverage Late in the Cycle

Sector Analysis: 27 Jun 2018, 4:37 AM ET - This piece looks at the implications of elevated leverage among BBB US F&B credits this late in the cycle, as well as the implications of cost inflation when companies are facing limited pricing power and possibly peak margins.

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