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Indonesia Property: 2019 Outlook

Sector Outlook: 04 Dec 2018, 5:19 AM ET - We take a look at the key drivers that would shape the course of Indonesian property heading into 2019. We provide the credit outlook for Indonesian property for 2019 and the recommendations for the individual companies.

Foshan Trip Notes October 2018: Spillover Demand

Site Visits: 25 Nov 2018, 11:57 PM ET - Compared to the other Tier-1 cities we visited, the housing and credit policies in Foshan were far more relaxed.  It is no wonder that some non-natives in Guangzhou have chosen to buy homes in Foshan instead. 

Shenzhen Trip Notes October 2018: Too Expensive!

Site Visits: 21 Nov 2018, 5:01 AM ET - Shenzhen homes are extremely expensive.  The LTM Cost/Income multiple as of September 2018 was 43.2x (National average: 9.9x), indicating that new homes in Shenzhen are significantly less affordable than most places in China.

China Property Sector: PBOC’s Take On Sector

Sector Analysis: 09 Nov 2018, 3:12 AM ET - Is the China property sector risky in the eyes of the People's Bank of China ("PBOC")?

China Property Navigator 3Q18: Macros in Pictures

China Property Navigator: 12 Oct 2018, 4:04 AM ET - This report marks the end of our China Property Navigator 3Q18 series. Developers appear to be shifting their land bank expansion focus to out of China's top 40 cities.

China Property Navigator 3Q18: Bond Supply

China Property Navigator: 11 Oct 2018, 3:23 AM ET - This report is part 4 of our 5-part 3Q18 China Property Navigator. The domestic public corporate bond market seems to be re-opening quietly. Supply risk from the China property sector is also expected to moderate in 4Q18.

China Property Navigator 3Q18: Relative Ranking

China Property Navigator: 10 Oct 2018, 12:38 AM ET - This is the 3rd part of our 5-part 3Q18 China Property Navigator. We ranked the 13 Chinese developers under our full coverage and upgraded our recommendations on a number of bond issues.

China Property Navigator 3Q18: 1H18 Results Wrap

China Property Navigator: 09 Oct 2018, 3:54 AM ET - We summarize the LTM to 1H18 results of the Chinese developers under our coverage in this report and highlight broad trends in 1H18. This report is the 2nd part of a 5-part series.

China Property Navigator 3Q18: Housing Policies

China Property Navigator: 08 Oct 2018, 1:55 AM ET - Local governments continued fine-tuning existing housing policies for their respective cities in 3Q18. Tighter resale restrictions and HPRs were rolled out even at the county-level.

HK/SG Conference 2018: Indo vs. Chinese Developers

Transcript: 31 Jul 2018, 10:58 PM ET - Indonesian versus Chinese Developers: Where is the value?

Big Homebuilders: Going to the Source

Sector Analysis: 27 Jul 2018, 4:49 AM ET - With crosscurrents in the headlines around prices, mortgage rates, changing regional demand, and shifting product growth expectations, it still comes down to builder strategies on price and costs, profit margins, and inventory management. 

China Property Navigator 2Q18: Liquidity Crunch?

China Property Navigator: 04 Jul 2018, 5:01 AM ET - Will Chinese developers face a liquidity crunch, on the back of rising average cost of debt and the recent NDRC rule on limiting offshore bond proceeds?

China Property Navigator 1Q18: FY17 Rankings

China Property Navigator: 29 Apr 2018, 10:54 PM ET - This is the 4th part of our 5-part 1Q18 China Property Navigator. We rank the 13 developers we cover. Longfor Properties topped the charts again in our relative ranking approach, while Greentown was ranked last. 

China Property Navigator 1Q18: FY17 Results Wrap

China Property Navigator: 29 Apr 2018, 9:20 PM ET - The key FY17 credit metrics of the Chinese high yield developers under our full coverage improved year-on-year, in general. This is the third part of our 5-part 1Q18 China Property Navigator. 

China Property Navigator 1Q18: Bond Supply

China Property Navigator: 27 Apr 2018, 5:26 AM ET - This report is part 2 of our 5-part 1Q18 China Property Navigator. Total offshore and onshore bond supply from Chinese high yield developers exceeded the aggregated refinancing needs in 1Q18.

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

China Property Navigator 4Q17: Bonds or Shares?

China Property Navigator: 30 Jan 2018, 2:28 AM ET - Many Chinese high yield developers rushed to the $-bond market as 2018 kicked off. Some developers also capitalised on the soaring share prices, and issued zero coupon convertible bonds and new share placements.

China Property Navigator 4Q17: Housing Policies

China Property Navigator: 29 Jan 2018, 4:33 AM ET - Cities such as Lanzhou, Nanjing and Zhengzhou have started to relax its existing policies or introduce easing policies selectively, leading some observers to believe that 2018 could be the year of policy easing. We think otherwise. 

China Property 2018 Outlook: Supply Risk & Strategy

Sector Outlook: 18 Dec 2017, 11:02 PM ET - Tight valuation, deteriorating sector fundamentals, a potential offshore bond supply glut, waning onshore bids/technical support, and rising Fed rates are reasons why we suggest a more defensive strategy for 2018. 

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