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Ally Financial

ALLY is one of the largest domestic auto lenders with a full suite of product offerings for both dealers (commercial) and consumers (retail). ALLY is a top lender in the overall retail auto loan space, reflecting top three market share in both new (#3 in 4Q15) and used car lending (#2). ALLY Bank is a leading online bank franchise with a focus on retail deposits, including CDs, savings, checking, & money market accts, comprising ~65% of funding (3Q18). ALLY launched its credit card product in 3Q16, though the initial product expansion will not include on-balance sheet loans (TD is the issuer). ALLY rolled out a residential mortgage product in 4Q16 and will also look to grow its relatively small comm'l/middle market lending business. ALLY is a bank holding co. (BHC) & is subject to Federal Reserve supervision, including the annual CCAR process. Ally Bank was recently approved as a member bank of the Chicago Fed, aligning regulatory regimes between HoldCo & OpCo as assets increasingly migrate to the bank level. (07 Dec 2018)

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Discover: Moody's (Finally) Sees the Light

Worth Watching: 31 Oct 2018, 1:59 PM ET - Discover (Baa3/BBB-/BBB+) was upgraded one notch to Baa3 by Moody's (outlook stable), equalizing with S&P and Fitch, both of whom have maintained Discover at IG throughout its history while Moody's chopped to Ba1 at the height of the crisis (mid-2 ..
Focused

Ally 3Q18: Deposit Growth Rebound, Credit Improves

Earnings Note: 25 Oct 2018, 7:47 PM ET - Ally had a solid all-around 3Q18, with origination volume tracking in line with FY18 guidance, further credit improvement, and a rebound of deposit growth after last quarter. Stay O/P and see particular value at current levels.
Focused

Ally: S&P Revises Outlook to Positive

Worth Watching: 17 Oct 2018, 3:51 PM ET - Ally (Ba3/BB+/BB+) had its outlook revised to positive from stable by S&P, attributed to improving profitability and credit quality, noting that it could upgrade the rating in the next 12-24 months if Ally "maintains its improved level of profitab ..

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 
Focused

Specialty Finance: Barclays Conference Notes

Sector Analysis: 17 Sep 2018, 5:03 AM ET - We provide presentation write-ups for the slew of specialty finance companies represented at the Barclays 2018 Global Financial Services Conference this week; Ally, AmEx, CIT, Discover, iStar, and Navient.

Register Now: 2018 Global Financials Seminars

Announcement: 10 Sep 2018, 9:51 PM ET - Register for our upcoming fifth annual Global Financials Seminars.

Interplay Between US Banks & Fed's Balance Sheet

Sector Analysis: 08 Aug 2018, 5:36 AM ET - In this note, we discuss the impacts of the Fed's balance sheet unwind on banks. We expect that U.S. banks will become the "natural buyers" of U.S. Treasuries not bought by the Fed, offsetting the impact on rates.
Focused

Ally: Appoints Two New Board Members

Worth Watching: 02 Aug 2018, 9:34 PM ET - Ally (Ba3/BB+/BB+) named Brian H. Sharples and Katryn Shineman Blake to the board of directors, effective August 3. Sharples is the co-founder and former chairman/CEO of HomeAway, which is an online vacation home rental marketplace acquired by the ..
Focused

Ally 2Q18: Core Good, Credit Great

Earnings Note: 26 Jul 2018, 5:38 PM ET - ALLY turned in another strong quarter in 2Q18, highlighed by improved credit performance, net revenues topping $1.4 bn, and solid origination volumes as used cars drive the engine. Stay O/P and prefer exposure over crossover peer CIT. 

US Banks: Update to 2018 Debt Supply Forecast

Sector Analysis: 09 Jul 2018, 5:49 AM ET - Following a review of 1H18 debt supply, we are increasing our supply forecast for the full year for the banks in our coverage universe. The majority of the increase reflects increased expectations for OpCo debt from the GSIBs.
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US Banks: 2018 CCAR - It's OK to Breach Limits?

Sector Analysis: 29 Jun 2018, 5:15 AM ET - The Fed released the 2018 CCAR results. It did not object to the capital plans of 34 of the 35 banks, the exception being DB USA, Deutsche Bank's IHC. The Fed did not force a number of banks that fell below the minimums to raise capital.
Focused

Ally: CCAR Results, Reading the TruPs Tea Leaves

Worth Watching: 28 Jun 2018, 11:50 PM ET - Ally (Ba3/BB+/BB+) received a non-objection from the Fed regarding its capital plan, including a 15% hike in the dividend to $0.15 from $0.13 and $1 bn of buybacks (~9% of outstanding), up 32% from last year's ask of $760 mn. Trying to read the te ..
Focused

US Banks: 2018 DFAST Results - SCB Shocker Looming

Sector Analysis: 22 Jun 2018, 4:56 AM ET - Although all banks over $100 bn in assets received a clean bill of health in the 2018 DFAST, our main concern is that this year’s test could lead to a substantial increase in capital requirements under the proposed Stress Capital Buffer.
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Specialty Finance: Conference Recap Notes

Sector Analysis: 14 Jun 2018, 5:41 AM ET - We recap recent presentations by several fincos at the Morgan Stanley Financials conference. The sense we got from card issuers (SYF, DFS) and auto lenders (ALLY) is that consumer credit performance should remain solid and stable in 2Q18.

U.S. Consumer Credit: 1Q18 Trends and Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 24 May 2018, 4:25 AM ET - We delve into the Fed's consumer credit data, analyzing 1Q18 trends across asset classes. We also dig in to recently released data on age distributions and one thing is clear: consumer credit has gotten grayer.

US Banks: Crapo De-reg. Bill Heads to White House

Sector Analysis: 23 May 2018, 10:27 PM ET - The House approved the Senate bill on financial (de)regulation, which is now headed to the White House to be signed into law. While the bill provides regulatory relief for regional/community banks, it has minimal impact on the big-6 banks.
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Ally 1Q18: Your Portfolio Needs an ALLY

Earnings Note: 26 Apr 2018, 3:27 PM ET - Ally turned in yet another strong quarter as net revenues advanced 5% YoY, credit continues to improve, and origination volumes hit $9.5 bn as used vehicles was a majority of volumes for the first time. Stay O/P.

HY Note: CIT Inaugural Sub Issue, Seniors for Refi

HY Note: 06 Mar 2018, 11:27 AM ET - CIT is in the market with its inaugural subordinated notes ($400 mn of 10Y), as well as benchmark 3Y and 7Y senior paper to clean out 2019 maturities. Still prefer ALLY, but new issue looks attractive, particularly the 7Y senior tranche.

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

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