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Gap

Gap Inc. is a leading apparel retailer with 3,171 company operated stores in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Ireland, Japan, Italy, Mexico, and China. The company also maintains 446 franchise arrangements with franchisees in other select geographic locations. GPS operates in retail, outlet and online stores selling casual apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women and children under the Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic, Intermix, and Athleta name brands. (20 Jul 2018)

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US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

IG European Consumer 2019: Known Unknowns

Sector Outlook: 06 Dec 2018, 10:03 PM ET - We have updated our frameworks for assessing RV in our high grade/crossover European food & bev/HPC and retail names for 2019, the 500th anniversary of the death of Leonardo da Vinci. We also initiate coverage on Molson Coors.

November 2018 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 02 Dec 2018, 9:51 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the forty company recommendation changes made on North American companies during the month of November.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.
Focused

Gap: Reports 3Q18 Results

Worth Watching: 21 Nov 2018, 6:51 AM ET - Gap (Baa2/BB+) reported flat comparable sales this quarter as the Gap banner's lagging sales offset positive comps in Old Navy and Banana Republic. Online sales delivered double-digit growth and comprise ~20% of revenue. Management still holds ..

Undoing a J. Screwing: Retail Fraudulent Transfers

HY Note: 14 Nov 2018, 4:18 AM ET - We examine state and federal bankruptcy fraudulent transfer laws that may allow creditors to recover in the event a debtor has transferred assets to the detriment of creditors, with a particular focus on retail situations. 

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.

September 2018 US Retail Sales

Strategy Analysis: 16 Oct 2018, 5:15 AM ET - September retail sales came up a bit short of expectations, with some weather/storm impact likely a factor. A MoM slowdown in restaurants was a big factor in the miss, although the setback comes after multiple months of above-trend growth.

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

US Employment: 3.0% Wage Growth on the Horizon

Strategy Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 12:24 PM ET - September nonfarm payrolls disappointed on the headline number, but under the surface, the report was solid.  Wages posted another strong gain and are just one tick away from the 3.0% YoY milestone.

US Income & Spending: Consumption Stays On Track

Strategy Analysis: 01 Oct 2018, 6:11 AM ET - The August income & spending report contained another solid reading for consumer spending, continued income growth, and modest inflation. We dig into the pricing environment for a few discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Trade War Dispatch

Strategy Analysis: 21 Sep 2018, 12:03 AM ET - With this week's announcement that the US will be initiating a $200bn round of tariffs on imports from China, we provide a condensed breakdown of the details, as well as some initial thoughts on their impact.

August '18 US Retail Sales

Sector Analysis: 17 Sep 2018, 10:22 AM ET - Aug. retail sales showed a consumer still willing to spend - incl. some very discretionary categories such as restaurants/apparel.  While the MoM figure of +0.1% slipped below consensus (+0.4%), a +6.6% YoY print shows still strong demand.

US Employment: Finally, A Wage Growth Surprise

Strategy Analysis: 07 Sep 2018, 4:06 PM ET - The August employment report contained the long-awaited breakout in wage growth to a new cycle high. Payroll growth was also solid, and we highlight our outlook for it going forward.

US Income & Spending: Inflation Momentum Fading?

Strategy Analysis: 30 Aug 2018, 2:43 PM ET - July consumer spending and income increased largely as expected, providing a solid start to 3Q spending. The core PCE deflator hit the Fed’s 2.0% target. We highlight that the recent inflation data have cooled some from earlier this year.

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