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US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

November 2017 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 01 Dec 2017, 12:03 AM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the thirty-two company recommendation changes made on US companies during the month of November.  
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Airbus 3Q17: Uphill Task Ahead

Earnings Note: 02 Nov 2017, 5:48 AM ET - Delays and in-service issues on the engines powering the A320neo and ongoing issues on A400M have weighed on cash flow, but Airbus reaffirmed its financial and commercial aircraft delivery targets for 2017. We downgrade to M/P on USD bonds.

BBD: Airbus Provides CSeries (and BBD) a Lifeline

HY Note: 17 Oct 2017, 8:32 AM ET - AIR’s 50.01% stake in BBD’s struggling CSeries program offers a lifeline and alleviates downside risk related to the CSeries, and establishes a potential path around the steep US tariffs. We shift to a BUY recommendation BBD bonds.
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Airplanes: Framing the Kobe Aluminum Issue

HY Note: 16 Oct 2017, 12:48 PM ET - Kobe risk falls on OEM warranties.
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2017 Paris Air Show: Momentum Swings Boeing’s Way

IG Note: 27 Jun 2017, 4:44 AM ET - Boeing wins versus Airbus in order announcements at the 2017 Paris Air Show. Narrowbody aircraft continue to dominate the headlines, with both 737 MAX and the A320neo family having a productive week.

May 2017 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 31 May 2017, 10:21 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the thirty-six company recommendation changes made on US companies during the month of May.
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Boeing & Airbus 1Q17: Backlogs Provide a Buffer

Earnings Note: 01 May 2017, 11:25 AM ET - BA and AIR are sitting on record backlogs that assuage any fears of a steep downward trend in the aerospace cycle. However, wide-body demand will attract more scrutiny going forward putting the spotlight on some production rate hikes at BA.

Trump, Trade, Germany, and the EU

Strategy Analysis: 08 Mar 2017, 11:15 PM ET - The Trump team focuses on a bilateral deal with Germany distinct from the EU and sets the stage for more tension. We frame the US-Germany trade deficit for 2016 at the industry level.  Trade edges ahead of the Fed as a risk variable?
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Aerospace & Defense 2017 Outlook: Underperform

Sector Outlook: 01 Feb 2017, 5:43 AM ET - The DoD is still operating under a continuing resolution in FY17, but there is increased optimism that the new Republican government will lift defense spending caps for the years ahead. Commercial aerospace will face some headwinds in 2017.

CreditSights 12th Annual European Conference

Announcement: 29 Nov 2016, 8:54 PM ET - Download our Conference Mobile App for our upcoming event on Friday 9th December 2016.

US-Japan Trade: New Day, Same Old Deficit

Sector Analysis: 22 Nov 2016, 11:13 PM ET - The Japan trade deficit is a tradition across decades of GOP/Dem leadership with the flow of goods still led by cars/parts (imports) and planes/parts (exports). Yen weakness is hard to complain about when the UST curve is driving it.     
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Airbus: 3Q16 - Supply Chain Issues Hurt Results

Worth Watching: 27 Oct 2016, 3:58 PM ET - Airbus  Group's (A2/A+) third quarter results were weak and missed consensus estimates driven by all three of its segments recording weaker operating profits and operating margin. In contrast to Boeing, which reported strong 3Q numbers and also ..

May 2016 Europe Company Recommendation Changes

Euro Recommendation Changes: 31 May 2016, 9:05 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the twelve company recommendation changes made on European companies during the month of May.

Boeing: New 7, 10, and 30-year Notes

Worth Watching: 16 May 2016, 1:23 PM ET - Boeing (A2/A/A) will issue $1.2 billion between new 7, 10, and 30-year senior notes.  Initial price talk was T+75-80 bp on the 10-year but this has tightened to T+65 bp.  This compares with the 2.5 2025s trading at a 59 bp G-spread (using index ..
Focused

Airbus: New 10 and 15-Year Bonds

Worth Watching: 09 May 2016, 12:12 PM ET - Airbus  (A2/A/A-) issued €600 million 10Y and €900 million 15Y euro-denominated notes.  Initial price talk was MS+55 bp and MS+75 bp respectively, but final terms reportedly tightened to MS+42 and MS+60 bp.  The MS+42 bp on the 10-year still r ..

Embraer 1Q16: Low Oil Reduces Replacement Urgency

Earnings Note: 01 May 2016, 9:09 PM ET - ERJ offered a sullen view on the near-term prospects of the commercial jet industry.  Management is not aware of any other large US campaigns this year and low oil prices have reduced the urgency among airlines to upgrade older equipment.

Boeing 1Q16: Buybacks Surge

Worth Watching: 28 Apr 2016, 8:44 AM ET - Boeing 1Q16 - Boeing (A2/A/A) 1Q16 revenue increased 2.2% YoY to $22.6 bn thanks to a jump in Defense, Space & Security deliveries (F-15 and C-17).  Commercial Airplane (BCA) volume shrank 8 units (-4%) on lower 747 and 767 deliveries which lef ..

Industrials: Green Shoots During Spring

Sector Analysis: 22 Mar 2016, 12:08 AM ET - Our latest read on what industrial companies are saying on both sides of the pond across their wide ranging end markets. The gist? Still a mixed outlook but early stabilization, even in the more challenging sectors.

Rheinmetall 4Q15: Defence Operating Improvements

Earnings Note: 20 Mar 2016, 5:54 PM ET - Rheinmetall’s Defence segment is bearing the fruits of completed restructuring efforts with improvements reported in the combat systems and electronic solutions businesses.

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