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Dover

Dover is a diversified global manufacturer that operates under three segments when accounting for the Apergy spin: Engineered Systems (39% of 2017 revenues), Fluids (38%), and Refrigeration and Food Equipment (23%). The Engineered Systems segment is comprised of two platforms: printing & identification and industrials. Meanwhile Fluids delivers products for the retail fueling, chemical, hygienic, oil and industrial end-markets. As for Refrigeration & Food Equipment, they serve the commercial refrigeration and food service end-markets. While we do not have proforma geographic data, we do note that based on the annual filing the company's geographic exposure was to the US (~57% of FY17 sales), followed by Europe (19%), Asia (10%), Other Americas (9%), and Other (5%). DOV enjoys the benefit of a tenured management, helmed by CEO Robert Livingston, about 64, who has been at the helm since 2008 following a brief stint as COO that same year. (20 Sep 2018)

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3M: 3Q18 | Event Risk Brewing?

Worth Watching: 23 Oct 2018, 9:51 PM ET - 3M (A1/AA-) had a downright ugly quarter especially when compared to other Industrial behemoths that were on the screen today including United Technologies and Caterpillar. Reported revenue sank 0.2% $8.15 bn, due primarily to currency, and cam ..

September 2018 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 30 Sep 2018, 9:25 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the twelve company recommendation changes made on North American companies during the month of September.
Focused

Dover: Shift to Outperform

Worth Watching: 20 Sep 2018, 12:26 PM ET - Dover (A3/BBB+) hosted its annual investor day last week and discussed fresh capital allocation plans. The firm has been on a journey over the last few years to reshape its portfolio in an effort to reduce cyclicality and focus on higher growth ..

Industrials 2Q18 Review: Tariffs Tame for Now

Sector Analysis: 07 Aug 2018, 4:43 AM ET - It was a strong 2Q18 earnings season for our Industrial credits. We share the salient takeaways and touch on hot button topics such as end-market trends, tariffs and event risk.

US Industrials: Macro Data Points

Sector Analysis: 12 Jun 2018, 1:59 AM ET - In this report, we tied the positive tone from Industrial management teams to select economic data points.

US Industrials: EPG Conference | Macro to Micro

Sector Analysis: 29 May 2018, 4:47 AM ET - We attended the 3-day Electrical Products Group conference in FL last week, which featured a host of Industrial firms. The macro and end-market tone was distinctly positive.  In this report we highlight key takeaways on over 15 credits.

United Technologies Scenarios: United to Divided?

Company Spotlight: 16 Apr 2018, 4:15 AM ET - We see a modest multiple expansion opportunity if management does go down the break-up route and while there is also a case whereby the SpinCos could have IG ratings, we would not rule out seeing the Climate division move into HY territory.
Focused

US Cap Goods: Event Risk = Sector Underperformance

IG Note: 21 Mar 2018, 5:23 AM ET - The Capital Goods Index has been the worst performing sector on an excess return basis year-to-date. Sector returns severely lagged the Index in January with GE and UTX being notable underperformers to date.

JCI: Power Solutions in Play

IG Note: 12 Mar 2018, 9:44 PM ET - We had been flagging JCI as a credit with high event risk. Now JCI is joining other Industrials under pressure by putting Power Solutions under strategic review. We maintain our Underperform until we obtain more capital structure clarity.

Honeywell: Capital Allocation Update

IG Note: 06 Mar 2018, 8:18 PM ET - The message from HON's Investor Day last week was that capital will be allocated in a prudent manner. However, we remain guarded on the credit at current levels with a “new” CEO legacy building and there being an activist in the scene.

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

United Technologies: Break-Up Concerns Validated

IG Note: 21 Feb 2018, 7:03 PM ET - For several years we have highlighted that there was break-up risk at United Technologies and at the Barclay’s Industrial conference, management legitimized that concern.
Focused

US Industrial 2018 Outlook: Conglomerate Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 21 Jan 2018, 9:58 PM ET - Against the backdrop of a generally favorable global demand environment, event risk is the key 2018 credit concern for the conglomerate peer group. We focus on this topic and revisit our credit recommendations for more than two dozen firms.
Focused

Dover: Risks Ratings with Spin-off Route

Worth Watching: 07 Dec 2017, 9:28 PM ET - Dover (A3/A-) placed its upstream Oil & Gas business, Wellsite under strategic review back in September and today we learned that the firm is going the spin-off route. This trend has been picking up steam across the US Industrials with recent e ..

GE: Early Innings of a Long Game

IG Note: 13 Nov 2017, 10:50 PM ET - Encouraging for bondholders was seeing the dividend cut and hearing A1/P1 ratings being a target, but at this juncture we do not take such ambitions at face value and maintain our Underperform on the credit.

GE: 3Q17 | Can GE Bring Itself Back to Life?

Earnings Note: 20 Oct 2017, 11:10 PM ET - GE missed expectations by a wide margin and slashed full-year expectations. We continue to be at an Underperform on the credit until we obtain further clarity on management’s portfolio vision hopefully in a few weeks.
Focused

Dover: Third Point’s Latest Industrial Target

Worth Watching: 20 Oct 2017, 10:43 AM ET - Dover: Yesterday's news was the release of Dover's third quarter results, but today's headlines surround disclosure that Dan Loeb's Third Point fund has taken a stake in the company like was done at Honeywell in April. According to the quarterly ..
Focused

Dover 3Q17: The Waiting Game

Earnings Note: 19 Oct 2017, 2:58 PM ET - Dover released a solid set of third quarter results ahead of the separation of its upstream energy business, Wellsite. Until we obtain greater clarity on the company’s capital structure, we remain at an Underperform on the credit.
Focused

DOV: Wellsite Under Review, Credit Impact Unclear

IG Note: 12 Sep 2017, 5:02 PM ET - Dover is the latest multi-industrial to announce a major portfolio move and is exploring strategic options for its upstream energy businesses. We maintain our Underperform on the credit for now.

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