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CVS Health

CVS Health is the largest pharmacy health care provider in the US, with an integrated model consisting of its Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) and Retail/LTC pharmacy businesses. Under the PBM segment, CVS provides PBM solutions through its network of 68,000+ retail pharmacies (includes CVS, independent, and other) as well as specialty pharmacy services through 23 retail specialty pharmacies, 13 specialty mail order pharmacies, 4 mail order dispensing pharmacies and 84 branches for infusion and external services as of 1Q18. CVS' PBM services repertoire includes mail order pharmacy, specialty pharmacy, plan design & administration, formulary management, & claims processing. Its SilverScript subsidiary provides Medicare Part D drug benefits to eligible beneficiaries. In its Retail/LTC segment, CVS operates 9,847 retail drugstores, 1,111 MinuteClinics, 37 onsite pharmacies, and 163 long term care (LTC) pharmacies as of 1Q18. CVS also benefits from a generic drug sourcing joint venture with Cardinal Health called Red Oak Sourcing. (20 Jul 2018)

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Healthcare: Affordable Care Act Whacked

Sector Analysis: 18 Dec 2018, 11:39 AM ET - In this note we review the potential implications from the invalidation of the Affordable Care Act. We discuss which insurers and hospitals are most at risk among other topics. 

Transcript: IG Pharma – How to Play the BBBs

Transcript: 18 Dec 2018, 9:22 AM ET - We presented on BBB Pharma at the US IG and Crossover Annual Conference in New York last week. Our focus was on the key drivers of performance in the space, including operating trends, capital allocation priorities, and relative value.

November 2018 US Retail Sales

Sector Analysis: 17 Dec 2018, 4:56 AM ET - November US retail sales came in mildly ahead of consensus, with signs that consumer momentum continues through the Holiday period. 

US Inflation: Goods Inflation Is Back

Sector Analysis: 12 Dec 2018, 11:57 PM ET - Headline and core indexes both increased in line with expectations.  We highlight the first bought of YoY core goods inflation since 2016 and anecdotes of margin pressure from the most recent Beige Book.

IG European Consumer: 2019 Outlook Opinion Changes

Sector Outlook: 11 Dec 2018, 9:03 PM ET - We set out more on our six opinion changes in European food & beverage/HPC and retail for 2019, plus the initiation of Molson Coors, and give specific bond recommendations in order to execute them. 

US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

IG European Consumer 2019: Known Unknowns

Sector Outlook: 06 Dec 2018, 10:03 PM ET - We have updated our frameworks for assessing RV in our high grade/crossover European food & bev/HPC and retail names for 2019, the 500th anniversary of the death of Leonardo da Vinci. We also initiate coverage on Molson Coors.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.
Focused

CVS: Closes On Aetna, Earns Moody's Downgrade

Worth Watching: 28 Nov 2018, 9:04 PM ET - CVS (Baa2/BBB) completed their acquisition of Aetna, and Moody's celebrated the matrimony with a downgrade from Baa1 to Baa2. The downgrade came as no surprise, given previous telegraphing from the agency around the debt surge to fund the acquisi ..

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.

Undoing a J. Screwing: Retail Fraudulent Transfers

HY Note: 14 Nov 2018, 4:18 AM ET - We examine state and federal bankruptcy fraudulent transfer laws that may allow creditors to recover in the event a debtor has transferred assets to the detriment of creditors, with a particular focus on retail situations. 
Focused

CVS 3Q18: Confident in NY/CA Deal Approval

Earnings Note: 07 Nov 2018, 5:17 AM ET - CVS printed a solid 3Q result, and expressed confidence that final state-level approvals for the Aetna deal from five states - including New York and California - are imminent. 

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 
Focused

Aetna 3Q18: NY The Last Major Regulatory Hurdle

Earnings Note: 30 Oct 2018, 10:02 AM ET - AET reported $977 mn of operating profits, up from $814 mn a year ago, thanks to strong Medicare Advantage growth and the impact of corporate tax reform. Meanwhile, NY remains the last major regulatory hurdle.

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.

Healthcare: ACA Market May be Further Pressured

Sector Outlook: 25 Oct 2018, 4:19 AM ET - The White House continues to amend the ACA and intends to give States the option of allowing insurers to provide less comprehensive coverage at a lower cost. For individuals who remain in ACA-compliant plans, this may mean higher premiums.

September 2018 US Retail Sales

Strategy Analysis: 16 Oct 2018, 5:15 AM ET - September retail sales came up a bit short of expectations, with some weather/storm impact likely a factor. A MoM slowdown in restaurants was a big factor in the miss, although the setback comes after multiple months of above-trend growth.
Focused

Health Insurance: 2019 MA Star Ratings Released

Sector Analysis: 15 Oct 2018, 6:01 AM ET - Open enrollment season for Medicare Advantage starts on October 15. Publicly traded health insurers have focused attention and resources on this line of business given favorable demographic, profitability, and regulatory trends.

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