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Country Garden

Cogard is now the largest Chinese developer by gross contracted sales performance. It had an attributable land bank of 188.6 mn sqm at 31 Dec 2017. Cogard has a land bank cheaper than most of its peers as its land parcels are located predominantly in suburban type areas in Tier 2/3 cities, targeting the mass-to-middle-class buyers. Land parcels in Guangdong province accounted for 30% of its total land bank as at 31 Dec 2017. Cogard also has ongoing overseas projects in Malaysia, Australia and Indonesia. Management plans to expand into India too. In addition to its residential development activities, the Group owned 48 hotels as at 31 Dec 2017, of which 39 are in operations and another 9 under construction. Listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2007, Cogard had a market capitalization of HKD 280.9 bn ($35.8 bn) on 6 July 2018. Most of Cogard's issued share capital is held by the company's management team, with Yang Huiyan (Vice Chairman) holding 56.70%, followed by the other executive directors, Ou Xueming and Su Rubo at 3.55% and 3.45% respectively. Ping An holds 8.96%, while other financial institutions and the public hold the remaining 27.34%. (12 Jul 2018)

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Asia Weekly: Chinese Builders Rally on NDRC's Move

Asia Weekly: 14 Dec 2018, 12:53 AM ET - Chinese developers outperformed this week. The rally came shortly after the NDRC announced that it would support the onshore bond issuance of companies that fulfill certain criteria.
Focused

China Property 2019: Worse Before Getting Better

Sector Outlook: 13 Dec 2018, 10:30 PM ET - We think that the Chinese property sector is likely to slow down at a controlled pace next year. We maintain our defensive stance, and recommend investors to hold the Chinese BBB, BB, and selective single B, short-dated developers.
Focused

China Trip Notes Oct-18: What Is Great About It

Site Visits: 04 Dec 2018, 10:39 PM ET - Home prices across China’s Greater Bay Area have surged in recent years. We keep our recommendations on Agile, Cogard, Evergrande, KWG and Shimao unchanged after our recent trip to Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Foshan and Zhongshan.

Indonesia Property: 2019 Outlook

Sector Outlook: 04 Dec 2018, 5:19 AM ET - We take a look at the key drivers that would shape the course of Indonesian property heading into 2019. We provide the credit outlook for Indonesian property for 2019 and the recommendations for the individual companies.
Focused

Zhongshan Trip Notes Oct-18: Frothy Market

Site Visits: 03 Dec 2018, 4:10 AM ET - We visited some property projects recently in Zhongshan, a Tier-3 city. With an oversupply of homes, the Zhongshan property market looks frothy as speculators from other nearby cities made up a substantial portion of the home buyers. 

Asia Corporate Recommendations: December 2018

Asia Corporate Recommendations: 03 Dec 2018, 4:09 AM ET - New initiations this month include Agile 2020, KWG 2020, and China State Construction International perp with Market perform. Downgrades include Everre 6.25% 2021, H&H 2021 and Vedanta 2023 from Market perform to Underperform.

Asia Weekly: All Eyes on G20 Summit

Asia Weekly: 30 Nov 2018, 4:45 AM ET - The market will be watching the G20 Buenos Aires summit closely today and tomorrow if trade tensions between US and China ease or escalate. Chinese property developers outperformed across the credit spectrum.
Focused

Asia Credit Calendar: Week of 3 December 2018

Strategy Analysis: 29 Nov 2018, 10:59 PM ET - Shinmao Property will host its 2-day Reverse Roadshow this week. Economic releases from Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and the United States are also due this week. 

Asia High Yield Snapshot: 2018 Interim Edition

Asia High Yield Snapshot: 27 Nov 2018, 3:30 AM ET - The Asia High Yield Snapshot summarises the key credit metrics, cash flow trends, profitability and other financial indicators of Asian high yield $ bond issuers. This edition is updated for 2018 interim figures. 
Focused

Foshan Trip Notes October 2018: Spillover Demand

Site Visits: 25 Nov 2018, 11:57 PM ET - Compared to the other Tier-1 cities we visited, the housing and credit policies in Foshan were far more relaxed.  It is no wonder that some non-natives in Guangzhou have chosen to buy homes in Foshan instead. 
Focused

Asia Weekly: Strong New $-Bond Pipeline from LGFVs

Asia Weekly: 22 Nov 2018, 11:29 PM ET - The new issue pipeline remains strong with pending deals including many LGFVs.  Chengdu Communications, Yunnan Provincial Energy, Chengdu Economic and Technological Development and Beijing Infrastructure all held $-bond roadshows this week.

Shenzhen Trip Notes October 2018: Too Expensive!

Site Visits: 21 Nov 2018, 5:01 AM ET - Shenzhen homes are extremely expensive.  The LTM Cost/Income multiple as of September 2018 was 43.2x (National average: 9.9x), indicating that new homes in Shenzhen are significantly less affordable than most places in China.
Focused

Asia Weekly: Widest Spreads in 2.5 Years

Asia Weekly: 16 Nov 2018, 12:17 AM ET - Asian $-bond spreads continued to widen after a brief respite last week, reaching their widest levels in more than 2 and a half years. The Asian IG index widened by 5 bp, while the HY index sold off by 31 bp.
Focused

Asia Weekly: Strong Rebound for Chinese Developers

Asia Weekly: 09 Nov 2018, 4:12 AM ET - Chinese developers rebounded significantly this week. Country Garden (Cogard) led the rebound: Cogard 7.125% 22, Jan-23, 24 and 25 all tightened in excess of 140 bp. Evergrande 22, 23, 24 and 25 registered weekly returns of 3.58%-5.86%.

China Property Sector: PBOC’s Take On Sector

Sector Analysis: 09 Nov 2018, 3:12 AM ET - Is the China property sector risky in the eyes of the People's Bank of China ("PBOC")?

Asia Weekly: Evergrande, Ever So Grand

Asia Weekly: 02 Nov 2018, 3:49 AM ET - Evergrande came to market with a 3-tranched jumbo-sized issue of $1.8 bn, which led to a sell-off in Chinese real estate bonds. The existing Evergrande 23s and 24s fell close to 7 points this week.
Focused

Asia Corporate Recommendations: November 2018

Asia Corporate Recommendations: 01 Nov 2018, 4:38 AM ET - We lowered our recommendation on Anton Oilfield 2020 to Market perform. However, we upgraded our recommendations on a number of Chinese property bond issues and  initiated on the new Evergrande 2020 with an Outperform recommendation.

Asia Weekly: Chinese Single-B Developers Sell Off

Asia Weekly: 26 Oct 2018, 3:47 AM ET - Chinese property developers underperformed this week with the single-B developers selling off the most. 9 out of the 10 worst performers were Chinese developers including single-B names such as Evergrande, China South City, and Fantasia. 

Guangzhou Trip Notes Oct-18: Aoyuan Lianfeng State

Site Visits: 23 Oct 2018, 4:28 AM ET - We visited Guangzhou Aoyuan Lianfeng State (广州奥园莲峰圣境) last week. 

Asia Weekly: Singyes Solar Defaults

Asia Weekly: 19 Oct 2018, 3:22 AM ET - High yield corporates suffered from the default of Singyes Solar and a bribery investigation into Indonesian developer Lippo Karawaci. 

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