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Constellation Brands

Constellation Brands is a leading wine, beer and spirits company with a portfolio of 100 premium alcoholic beverage brands, producing in North America, New Zealand and Italy. The group is the largest premium wine producer in the world as a result of its number 1 position in the USA, selling brands including Robert Mondavi, Clos du Bois and Kim Crawford, that accounted for 34% of total sales in FY2018. It is also the largest beer importer into the USA, brewing this beer in Mexico, and is the US' third largest beer supplier by overall market share. Constellation's beer segment sells Corona and Modelo brands (both in the USA only) and craft beer Ballast Point. It accounted for 61% of total group sales in FY2018. (06 Nov 2018)

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US Inflation: Goods Inflation Is Back

Sector Analysis: 12 Dec 2018, 11:57 PM ET - Headline and core indexes both increased in line with expectations.  We highlight the first bought of YoY core goods inflation since 2016 and anecdotes of margin pressure from the most recent Beige Book.

IG European Consumer: 2019 Outlook Opinion Changes

Sector Outlook: 11 Dec 2018, 9:03 PM ET - We set out more on our six opinion changes in European food & beverage/HPC and retail for 2019, plus the initiation of Molson Coors, and give specific bond recommendations in order to execute them. 

US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

IG European Consumer 2019: Known Unknowns

Sector Outlook: 06 Dec 2018, 10:03 PM ET - We have updated our frameworks for assessing RV in our high grade/crossover European food & bev/HPC and retail names for 2019, the 500th anniversary of the death of Leonardo da Vinci. We also initiate coverage on Molson Coors.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.
Focused

Constellation Brands: New $ Issuance for Pot Ante

IG Note: 22 Oct 2018, 10:16 AM ET - STZ is in the market with new 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y fixed rate notes, and a 3Y FRN. Proceeds will support its ~$4 bn investment in Canopy Growth. We have an O/P rec on STZ and see the offering as a good opportunity to add exposure. 
Focused

Constellation Brands: Exit Sand(s)man

Worth Watching: 18 Oct 2018, 4:22 AM ET - Constellation Brands (Baa3/BBB) announced that Bill Newlands, current COO, will assume the role of president and CEO, succeeding current CEO Rob Sands, on March 1, 2019. Rob Sands will assume the role of executive chair, with Richard Sands tran ..

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

US Employment: 3.0% Wage Growth on the Horizon

Strategy Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 12:24 PM ET - September nonfarm payrolls disappointed on the headline number, but under the surface, the report was solid.  Wages posted another strong gain and are just one tick away from the 3.0% YoY milestone.
Focused

Constellation Brands F2Q19: Core Strength

Earnings Note: 04 Oct 2018, 2:32 PM ET - While much of the recent discussion around STZ has focused on its cannabis investment, the core portfolio continues to do well. Beer sales grew 11% in the quarter and Wine & Spirits sales grew 8.8%. We maintain our O/P rec.

US Income & Spending: Consumption Stays On Track

Strategy Analysis: 01 Oct 2018, 6:11 AM ET - The August income & spending report contained another solid reading for consumer spending, continued income growth, and modest inflation. We dig into the pricing environment for a few discretionary spending categories.

Coca-Cola: A Can-nabinoid of Coke?

Worth Watching: 17 Sep 2018, 9:38 PM ET - Coca-Cola (Aa3/A+) is reportedly evaluating the cannabis drinks market as a next growth frontier, according to a Bloomberg report that said KO would be interested in CBD infused drinks. CBD, short for cannabinoid, is the non-psychoactive ingred ..

US Employment: Finally, A Wage Growth Surprise

Strategy Analysis: 07 Sep 2018, 4:06 PM ET - The August employment report contained the long-awaited breakout in wage growth to a new cycle high. Payroll growth was also solid, and we highlight our outlook for it going forward.

August 2018 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 02 Sep 2018, 9:49 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the thirty company recommendation changes made on North American companies during the month of August.

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