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Homebuilding: Conference Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 03 Oct 2018, 4:13 AM ET - We present some takeaways from the IMN Real Estate Private Equity Forum on Land & Homebuilding Conference in Las Vegas last week.   
Focused

Century Communities: Growing Ambitions

Earnings Note: 02 Aug 2018, 10:01 PM ET - CCS remains a fast-growing homebuilder give its acquisition history and recent ascent into a top 10 homebuilder.  Reported numbers include various M&A distortions in comparing YoY results but the underlying trends remain favorable.  

Big Homebuilders: Going to the Source

Sector Analysis: 27 Jul 2018, 4:49 AM ET - With crosscurrents in the headlines around prices, mortgage rates, changing regional demand, and shifting product growth expectations, it still comes down to builder strategies on price and costs, profit margins, and inventory management. 

June 2018 Company Coverage Initiated

Company Coverage Initiated: 01 Jul 2018, 9:52 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the fourteen companies on which we launched coverage in North America, Asia and Europe during the month of June.
Focused

Century Communities: Initiating Coverage

Company Spotlight: 20 Jun 2018, 4:32 AM ET - We initiate on Century Communities at Market perform based on trading levels and credit metrics in line with B rated peers. CCS is a fast-growing homebuilder and its recent purchase of Wade Jurney homes moves it into a top 10 position.  
Focused

Credit Profile: Century Communities

Company Spotlight: 20 Jun 2018, 4:30 AM ET - CCS has stable credit metrics in line with its B tier ratings profile.  The company has grown fast over the fast 5-years through acquisitions to become a top 10 homebuilder while diversifying its geographic concentration. 

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

US IG Sector Recs: A Very "In Line" April

Sector Weightings: 09 May 2017, 5:22 AM ET - After a weak March the IG index returned to positive territory, but most sectors reported excess return within +/- 5bp of the overall index. We discuss performance and update our sector recommendations. 

US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017

Sector Weightings: 08 May 2017, 11:18 PM ET - Our US IG Sector Slide Pack: April 2017 includes spread, return and attribution data for many of the Level 3 and Level 4 sectors of the BAML Index.  We look at both monthly and year-to-date performance. 

Sector Update March 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 10 Apr 2017, 8:20 PM ET - The Industrials sector largely matched the widening seen in the IG Corp ate index, though significantly underperformed on an excess return basis. We continue to hold a largely negative view on the sector entering 2Q17.

Homebuilding Snapshot: Prices Tell a Story

Strategy Analysis: 23 Mar 2017, 3:17 PM ET - We frame the trend line in new home vs. existing home sales and the wider gap between median and average prices for new homes.  The low end is picking up, but the $500K+ and $750K+ segment is holding in.  

Sector Update February 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 12 Mar 2017, 8:10 PM ET - February was a mixed month for Industrials sub-sectors, however aggregate excess return slightly outperformed the IG index. We also provide a summary of Industrials monthly IG supply and US Manufacturing ISM in our report.

Trump, Trade, Germany, and the EU

Strategy Analysis: 08 Mar 2017, 11:15 PM ET - The Trump team focuses on a bilateral deal with Germany distinct from the EU and sets the stage for more tension. We frame the US-Germany trade deficit for 2016 at the industry level.  Trade edges ahead of the Fed as a risk variable?

US Taxes: Interest Deductibility, Par Call Fear

Sector Analysis: 27 Feb 2017, 3:42 PM ET - We look into recent inquiries on interest deductibility issues and redemption risk.  Finding special tax redemption provisions can be a needles-and-haystacks exercise. The good news is "tailored" interest deduction language is hard to find.

Homebuilder Snapshot: High Price Crowd Weighs In

Sector Analysis: 23 Feb 2017, 5:59 AM ET - Strong existing home sales came on the same day that Toll Brothers, TRI Pointe, and William Lyon weighed in from their perch as the three priciest homebuilders in our universe based on ASPs.  The guidance was steady and confident.

Sector Update January 2017 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 09 Feb 2017, 8:14 PM ET - Within the Industrials sector, only Automotives were able to modestly outperform the US Corp index. After this run, coupled with fundamental concerns, we downgrade our rec on Autos to Underperform.  

US Manufacturing: Industrial Production Picks Pace

Worth Watching: 18 Jan 2017, 12:24 PM ET - US Manufacturing Federal Reserve reported Industrial Production data for December came in better than expected and, on the surface, underscored positive momentum to end the year with December activity up 0.8% MoM and up 0.5% YoY. However, we hi ..

US Strategy: Import Tax Pain Ahead?

Strategy Analysis: 03 Jan 2017, 11:03 PM ET - We look at some risks of corporate tax proposals tied to "border adjustments" (i.e. import taxes). Economist advocates make major assumptions on currencies and ignore the wildcard of "behavior" and potential responses to the policies.

US Manufacturing ISM: Ends 2016 on Solid Footing

Worth Watching: 03 Jan 2017, 2:57 PM ET - US Manufacturing ISM: For US manufacturing in 2017, all eyes will be on new trade policies and fiscal stimulus under the new Trump Administration and how that will impact the manufacturing trends in the country. Clearly more US-domiciled manufa ..

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