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Celgene

Celgene is one of the largest US Biotechs, with 2017 sales approaching $13 bn and adjusted EBITDA of ~$7.7 bn. The company is headquartered in Summit, NJ and its primary areas of focus include hematology, oncology, inflammation and immunology. Celgene's core portfolio includes four key drugs—Revlimid, Abraxane, Pomalyst and Otezla—which account for ~90% of total product sales. The company is best known for Revlimid (~63% of sales), which is used to treat a variety of blood diseases, including multiple myeloma, MDS and mantle cell lymphoma. In August 2015, Celgene completed the $7.2 bn all-cash acquisition of Receptos, including its lead drug candidate, ozanimod. More recently, the company announced the $9 bn takeout of Juno Therapeutics, which will provide a strong presence in innovative CAR-T therapies. (12 Dec 2018)

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US Inflation: Goods Inflation Is Back

Sector Analysis: 12 Dec 2018, 11:57 PM ET - Headline and core indexes both increased in line with expectations.  We highlight the first bought of YoY core goods inflation since 2016 and anecdotes of margin pressure from the most recent Beige Book.

US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.
Focused

CELG 3Q18: Management Highlights Pipeline

Earnings Note: 25 Oct 2018, 7:46 PM ET - Celgene’s future growth will rely heavily on the progression of its late-stage pipeline. On the 3Q call, management pounded the table on 2019/20 new launch opportunities (five key assets in particular), leaving us cautiously optimistic.

Healthcare: ACA Market May be Further Pressured

Sector Outlook: 25 Oct 2018, 4:19 AM ET - The White House continues to amend the ACA and intends to give States the option of allowing insurers to provide less comprehensive coverage at a lower cost. For individuals who remain in ACA-compliant plans, this may mean higher premiums.

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

US Employment: 3.0% Wage Growth on the Horizon

Strategy Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 12:24 PM ET - September nonfarm payrolls disappointed on the headline number, but under the surface, the report was solid.  Wages posted another strong gain and are just one tick away from the 3.0% YoY milestone.

US Income & Spending: Consumption Stays On Track

Strategy Analysis: 01 Oct 2018, 6:11 AM ET - The August income & spending report contained another solid reading for consumer spending, continued income growth, and modest inflation. We dig into the pricing environment for a few discretionary spending categories.

US Employment: Finally, A Wage Growth Surprise

Strategy Analysis: 07 Sep 2018, 4:06 PM ET - The August employment report contained the long-awaited breakout in wage growth to a new cycle high. Payroll growth was also solid, and we highlight our outlook for it going forward.

Cigna: Issuing ~$23.5 bn to Fund ESRX Deal

IG Note: 06 Sep 2018, 11:25 AM ET - CI is in the market with a 10-part ~$23.5 bn offering of new debt to fund the acquisition of Express Scripts. We are shifting our recommendation on both Cigna and Express Scripts to Outperform.

Pharma: 1H18 Capital Allocation Review

Sector Analysis: 04 Sep 2018, 9:27 PM ET - In this note, we review capital allocation in the Pharma sector through 1H18. We focus primarily on M&A trends, shareholder rewards, and new issuance activity. We also touch on leverage metrics in the sector versus historical periods.

US Income & Spending: Inflation Momentum Fading?

Strategy Analysis: 30 Aug 2018, 2:43 PM ET - July consumer spending and income increased largely as expected, providing a solid start to 3Q spending. The core PCE deflator hit the Fed’s 2.0% target. We highlight that the recent inflation data have cooled some from earlier this year.
Focused

Healthcare: 2Q18 Earnings Recap

Sector Analysis: 15 Aug 2018, 9:59 PM ET - In this note, we recap 2Q18 earnings results in US Healthcare with a focus on the Health Insurers, Medical Device manufacturers and Pharmaceutical companies.
Focused

AGN vs CELG: 2Q18 Earnings Snapshot

Earnings Note: 26 Jul 2018, 2:46 PM ET - Allergan and Celgene are two names in our BBB-rated Pharma universe with a bit of hair on them. Given current spreads, we prefer AGN due to its more diverse product offering and more balanced capital allocation strategy.

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