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Focused

Canadian National: $600 mn 2Y and 30Y Issuance

IG Note: 31 Oct 2018, 10:17 AM ET - Canadian National is in the market with a two-part $600 mn deal.We would be buyers of the bonds whilst a concession is available, given CNR's best-in class operating metrics and a very strong credit profile, but maintain U/P.
Focused

Transportation 2018 Outlook: Market perform

Sector Outlook: 07 Feb 2018, 5:02 AM ET - Steady global growth, rebounding US industrial production and resilient consumer confidence provide support for a positive year ahead, but NAFTA remains a wildcard that could derail the sector’s high confidence.

July 2017 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 01 Aug 2017, 11:00 AM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the twenty-two company recommendation changes made on US companies during the month of July.
Focused

Canadian National 2Q17: A High-Quality Credit

Earnings Note: 27 Jul 2017, 9:40 AM ET - CNR continues to lead other N.A. Class I rails in operating and credit metrics. However, we are downgrading CNR bonds to U/P based on valuations, as we see limited opportunity for furthering tightening from current trading levels.

Upcoming NY IG & HY Conferences

Announcement: 29 Nov 2016, 8:54 PM ET - Join us in New York on Tuesday, December 13, 2016 for our upcoming conferences.

Sector Update: June 2016 - US Industrials

Sector Weightings: 13 Jul 2016, 4:06 AM ET - Our Sector Update provides  June monthly performance data and updated recommendations for the Industrial sectors. 
Focused

Canadian National 1Q16: Cuts Guidance; Margin Beats

Worth Watching: 25 Apr 2016, 7:46 PM ET - Canadian National 1Q16 results exhibited the same volume pressure felt by the other rails, with metals and minerals leading the carload decline.  However, CNR continues to stand apart from most in terms of margin performance.  The quarterly ope ..
Focused

Canadian National 4Q15: Still The Margin Leader

Worth Watching: 26 Jan 2016, 10:00 PM ET

Union Pacific 4Q15: 2016 Volume To Fall Slightly

Earnings Note: 21 Jan 2016, 1:03 PM ET - 4Q15 revenue and EBITDA missed consensus estimates on 31% and 23% sales declines in coal and industrial products. 

Freight/Rail/Logistics: 2016 Outlook

Sector Outlook: 05 Jan 2016, 11:26 PM ET - The freight/rail/logistics group is likely to Underperform.  Expect FRL leverage to increase.  Rail pricing power remains intact, but volume is more likely to surprise to the downside than upside.

December 2015 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 31 Dec 2015, 9:01 AM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the twenty company recommendation changes made on US companies during the month of December.

2016 Outlook: Industrial Sector Recommendations

Strategy Outlook: 21 Dec 2015, 10:33 PM ET - We discuss 2015’s performance and detail our 2016 recommendations in the Industrial sector. 
Focused

Canadian Pacific: NSC Mgmt Change Becoming Focus

Earnings Note: 16 Dec 2015, 11:10 PM ET - This deal is becoming more about management change at NSC than about merging CP and NSC, a transaction that CreditSights continues to think is unlikely to be approved.

Norfolk Southern: NSC Rejects CP’s Bid

Company Analysis: 06 Dec 2015, 8:57 PM ET - NSC rejected CP’s bid but did not rule out an agreement at a higher price. NSC provided margin guidance, but there were not a lot of new ideas to spur confidence that profitability improvement will suddenly emerge.
Focused

Canadian National 3Q15: Another Record OR

Earnings Note: 28 Oct 2015, 5:38 AM ET - Consolidated operating expense shrank 5.3% on a 4.5% headcount reduction.  The quarterly operating margin improved 4.9 percentage points to 53.8%.

UPS 3Q15: Definite Softness in Manufacturing

Earnings Note: 27 Oct 2015, 11:08 PM ET - UPS affirmed the high-end of 2015 full-year diluted earnings per share $5.05 to $5.30 guidance, but UPS reported seeing business-to-business activity fading “a little bit” in 3Q15 and definite softness in the manufacturing sectors.

Union Pacific 3Q15: Leverage Guidance Increased

Earnings Note: 22 Oct 2015, 1:13 PM ET - Leverage guidance evolved from 1.5+x to 1.5+x, but it now defines this as “less than 2x”.  Also concerning, core pricing decelerated sequentially from 4.0% to 3.5%.
Focused

3Q15 Rail Preview: Low EV Multiples Concerning

Sector Outlook: 13 Oct 2015, 3:37 PM ET - CreditSights changes its recommendation on CSX to Underweight, affirms its Underperform recommendation on NSC, and upgrades its recommendation on CP to Outperform.  Swooning EV multiples add additional risk for some names.

July 2015 Sector Update: Industrials

Sector Weightings: 06 Aug 2015, 1:34 PM ET - Our July sector overview provides the latest monthly performance data for the Industrials sectors.  Additionally, this month features a discussion of the sector level impacts of rising interest rates.

UPS 2Q15: B2C & Manufacturing Slowing

Earnings Note: 28 Jul 2015, 2:51 PM ET - UPS noted a deceleration in U.S. business-to-consumer growth and a “slight decrease” in manufacturing, after four quarterly increases.  This, along with mixed economic news, makes UPS more cautious.  

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