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Campbell Soup Company

CPB is a manufacturer and marketer of branded convenience food products. It has over 20 market-leading brands, including Campbell's, Pace, Prego, Swanson, StockPot, V8, and Pepperidge Farm. Most of CPB's products are in slower-growing center-store categories in traditional mass and grocery channels. The acquisition of LNCE will provide the top line a much need boost by a business with a greater growth rate. CPB is organized around three main business segments: Americas Simple Meals and Beverages (55% of net sales, 72% of operating earnings), Global Biscuits and Snacks (32% of net sales, 32% of operating earnings), and Campbell Fresh (12% of net sales but does not generate positive earnings). LNCE brands include Snyder's of Hanover pretzels, KETTLE potato chips, Cape Cod potato chips, Snack Factory pretzel crisps, Pop Secret popcorn, Emerald Nuts, Late July organic snacks and more. LNCE's same-store sales grew at a 4% CAGR from 2012-2016, outpacing category growth (~3%). (03 Jul 2018)

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US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

IG European Consumer 2019: Known Unknowns

Sector Outlook: 06 Dec 2018, 10:03 PM ET - We have updated our frameworks for assessing RV in our high grade/crossover European food & bev/HPC and retail names for 2019, the 500th anniversary of the death of Leonardo da Vinci. We also initiate coverage on Molson Coors.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.
Focused

Campbell Soup: Loeb Gets Consolation Prize

Worth Watching: 26 Nov 2018, 9:02 PM ET - Campbell Soup (Baa2/BBB-) announced Monday that it has reached a truce with Third Point that will end the proxy battle waged by shareholder activist, Dan Loeb. As part of the agreement, CPB will increase the size of its Board from 12 to 14, add ..
Focused

Campbell F1Q19: Hard to Hang Hat on Soup

Earnings Note: 20 Nov 2018, 10:45 PM ET - Although CPB has a path to deleveraging and spreads are wide to peers, we remain wary of adding exposure to companies whose main deleveraging lever is asset sales. We maintain our M/P recommendation. 
Focused

Campbell Soup: Activism & Asset Sales, the Latest

Worth Watching: 11 Nov 2018, 9:43 PM ET - Campbell Soup (Baa2/BBB-): The saga with Dan Loeb continued last week with several proxy exchanges between the activist and the company that found the two entities still at odds with each other, despite reports of other shareholders encouraging ..

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.
Focused

Campbell Soup: Loeb Blow

Worth Watching: 18 Oct 2018, 4:22 AM ET - Campbell Soup (Baa2/BBB-) announced that controlling shareholders that collectively own nearly 41% of shares outstanding intend to vote in favor of the current board, dealing a blow to Dan Loeb/Third Point's bid to 86 the entire Board. From the ..

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

US Employment: 3.0% Wage Growth on the Horizon

Strategy Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 12:24 PM ET - September nonfarm payrolls disappointed on the headline number, but under the surface, the report was solid.  Wages posted another strong gain and are just one tick away from the 3.0% YoY milestone.

A Look at BBBs that Levered Up

Strategy Outlook: 02 Oct 2018, 10:39 PM ET - We ran a screen for BBBs that have levered up since 2015YE, and surveyed our analysts for their current view on each credit as well as issues to look for that could put the credit at risk of a downgrade. 
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Campbell Soup: Loeb Files Proxy Presentation

Worth Watching: 01 Oct 2018, 10:56 AM ET - Campbell Soup (Baa2/BBB-): Dan Loeb's Third Point Capital published a 45-page slide deck detailing the case for replacing the CPB Board of Directors (full presentation is available here). For the most part, the presentation reiterated points tha ..

US Income & Spending: Consumption Stays On Track

Strategy Analysis: 01 Oct 2018, 6:11 AM ET - The August income & spending report contained another solid reading for consumer spending, continued income growth, and modest inflation. We dig into the pricing environment for a few discretionary spending categories.
Focused

Campbell’s : Moody’s Affirms w/ Negative Outlook

Worth Watching: 12 Sep 2018, 9:16 PM ET - Campbell’s  (Baa2/BBB-): Moody's affirmed its Baa2 rating on CPB and shifted its outlook to negative. The rating had been on review for downgrade since May 21. We are a bit surprised that Moody's held the company at Baa2, given that the review ..
Focused

Campbell’s: Third Point Seeks Board Removal

Worth Watching: 09 Sep 2018, 5:41 PM ET - Campbell’s (Baa2/BBB-): Dan Loeb's Third Point Capital, which owns a 5.7% stake in CPB and has partnered with CPB shareholder George Strawbridge, Jr. for a collective 8.3% stake, is waging a proxy battle to replace the entire CPB Board of Direc ..

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