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Calpine Corporation

Calpine is one of the largest U.S. IPPs with 28 GW of coal-free generation located in the company's three key regions: North (various), West (mostly CA) and Texas. The lack of coal assets is a significant advantage during continues times of low gas prices. Calpine emerged from bankruptcy protection in January 2008, 25 months after it filed Chapt. 11 in December 2005. The company entered bankruptcy with $17.4 billion of debt at an average rate of 10.4% and exited with $10.4 billion of debt at an 8.1% average rate. (08 Dec 2017)

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Focused

Calpine: Project Debt Finally Coming? Our Thoughts

Company Analysis: 11 Dec 2018, 5:51 AM ET - Calpine is rumored to be coming to market with project debt on the crown jewel Geysers assets and unlike previous press speculation there are now details included that give these reports more credibility. 

Oil & Gas: HY E&P Cash Flows at $50/bbl Oil

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:10 AM ET - We now see HY E&P 2019 cash flows coming in 24% lower than previously expected at our new $50/WTI price deck ($65/WTI old).  We expect to see a mix of capex cuts, divestitures and incremental borrowings next year.

Oil & Gas: Slashing Oil Outlook, Downgrading E&Ps

Sector Analysis: 26 Nov 2018, 4:48 AM ET - We believe the recent 33% drop in oil prices is likely to be just the first leg of a deeper decline.  We are reducing our 2019 oil price view and recalibrating our IG and HY E&P investment recommendations to a more defensive position.
Focused

Calpine: Strong 3Q Cash Flows, Debt Falls $300 mn

Worth Watching: 09 Nov 2018, 5:02 AM ET - Calpine (uns. B2/B, sec. Ba2/BB) filed its third quarter 10Q showing $300 million of debt reduction during the quarter to $11.307 bn, and the $275 million of outstanding short revolver borrowings in 2Q have now been fully repaid. The QoQ declin ..

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 
Focused

Calpine: Project Debt on Geysers Sends Bonds Down

Worth Watching: 23 Sep 2018, 9:45 PM ET - Calpine  (uns. B2/B, sec. Ba2/BB) unsecured bonds fell 1.5 points on Friday on news that the company was issuing project debt on their 725 MW Geysers portfolio of baseload, CO2-free geothermal power plants in a move that subordinates existing b ..
Focused

Calpine: Thoughts on CA Plan to Ban Fossil Plants

Worth Watching: 03 Sep 2018, 9:32 PM ET - Calpine (B2/B) generated 38% of its LTM gross margin from some of its 6,700 MW of power plants in the state of California, which recently saw a bill head to the governor that would completely phase out all fossil power by the year 2045.  If sig ..
Focused

Calpine 10Q Cut: Debt Reduc. on Track; Weak Texas

Company Analysis: 22 Aug 2018, 5:11 AM ET - We were hoping to see the very strong July power prices in Texas would have completely reversed the 1Q increase in debt by time of the 10Q being filed on Aug. 8 but that wasn't the case and debt only fell by $75 million.
Focused

Calpine: Incredibly Weak August TX Power Prices

Company Analysis: 09 Aug 2018, 5:14 AM ET - We are lowering our estimate of the TX power surge boost to EBITDA from $450 million at July 30 to $300 million versus the company’s $1.9 billion run-rate owing to very weak August power prices so far this month. 
Focused

HY Power: Calpine EBITDA Soaring w/ TX Heat

Company Analysis: 30 Jul 2018, 6:01 AM ET - We calculate the heat wave that hit TX in July combined with strong August forward power prices could add $450 million of EBITDA to Calpine’s $1.8-1.9 billion EBITDA run-rate of the last several years.
Focused

HY Power CLO Monitor: Secured Debt Update

Sector Analysis: 24 Jul 2018, 5:35 AM ET - We expect stable to improving secured leverage across the HY Power sector driven by a strong outlook for free cash flows as capex is minimal across the board. 
Focused

HY Power: TX Spark Spreads Continue to Climb

Worth Watching: 02 Jul 2018, 10:55 AM ET - HY Power - Spark spreads for the month of June finished mixed relative to last year's levels and closed higher in Texas / ERCOT (+12%), PJM West (+21%) and East (+4%) while falling significantly in Northern/Southern CA and New England. So far t ..

June 2018 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 01 Jul 2018, 9:55 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the thirteen company recommendation changes made on North American companies during the month of June.

US HY 2018 Conference Series Presentations

Presentation Slides: 28 Jun 2018, 2:05 PM ET - We provide the presentation slides from our 2018 US HY Conference Series.

AES: Exits Eletropaulo Stake, Positive for CEMIG?

Worth Watching: 14 Jun 2018, 10:28 AM ET - AES (Ba2/BB+) announced it has officially exited its 17% stake in Eletropaulo (ELPL3: a Brazilian utility, no USD bonds) for $310 million and will use the proceeds to reduce parent level debt. We view the sale as another positive signal for AES ho ..
Focused

Calpine: Upgrading (Again) on Texas & 7.5% Yields

Company Analysis: 14 Jun 2018, 5:42 AM ET - We are upgrading Calpine unsecured bonds for the second time in two months (Apr 4: U/P to M/P), this time from Market perform to Outperform based, again, on strong TX power prices.  

Utilities & Power: Trade Pub & Twitter Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 07 Jun 2018, 4:59 AM ET - We provide investors highlights from worthwhile stories we've read in trade publications and twitter over the last two weeks. 

HY Power: Texas Spark Spreads Surge in May

Worth Watching: 31 May 2018, 9:52 PM ET - HY Power: Spark spreads for the month of May finished well above last year's levels in ERCOT and PJM West and well below last year's levels in Northern CA. May was overall positive month for power producers with only Northern California showing ..
Focused

Power & Utilities: Gangbuster PJM Auction +83% YoY

Sector Weightings: 23 May 2018, 9:11 PM ET - PJM capacity auction prices rose 83% YoY, w/multiple new regions breaking out even higher. TLN bonds are likely most exposed to the upside. Positive for PEG, EXC, VST, CPN, and NRG. 
Focused

Calpine: Bonds Fall 1 pt After 10Q Shows New Debt

Worth Watching: 16 May 2018, 12:00 AM ET - Calpine  (uns. B2/B, sec Ba2/BB) unsecured bonds fell a point after the now private company filed a 10Q showing that it entered into a new $300 million credit facility that matures in August and that Calpine had drawn the facility.  Additionall ..

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