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Caisse Nationale De Prevoyance

CNP mainly operates in France where it has benefited from the position of leading personal insurer since 1991. CNP has 23 million customers and operations in Europe and Latin America. As a Life insurance company, it has a broad range of products, but is primarily focused on Savings contracts. CNP stands out with its excellent business profile in France which represented around 77% of premium income at FY16. Outside France, CNP has two major operations: Italy and Brazil, which represented 8% and 11% of revenues in FY16 respectively. We do not believe that CNP will dramatically shift its center of gravity outside France. In fact, we believe that the current core shareholders – CDC, Sopassure and the French State, which represent 78.24% of the ownership, – will be resistant to significant foreign expansion. The resistance would stem from risks inherent in this strategy which may lead to (i) a dilution of their respective stakes and (ii) a potential increase of CNP's risk profile if it expands its presence in regions where it has little expertise and in economies with less stability (e.g. Latin America). (02 Nov 2017)

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QBE: 2019 Reinsurance Cuts Nat Cat Exposure

Worth Watching: 13 Dec 2018, 2:05 PM ET - QBE disclosed details around its 2019 reinsurance programme and provided a brief update around the status of its restructuring program. Building upon earlier comments at a conference (see QBE: Comments from Australasian Conference), QBE finally ..

2018 Euro IG Conference: Insurance

Transcript: 12 Dec 2018, 10:09 PM ET - We present a transcript of the European Insurance presentation given at the European IG & Crossover Annual conference on December 7, 2018.

Euro Financial Movers: Stressing The Positives

Euro Financial Movers: 02 Dec 2018, 10:07 PM ET - The Bank of England's stress test results, more money laundering problems for Danske Bank and Deutsche Bank, HSH Nordbank's Tier 1 termination, Axa's deleveraging, and the effect of S&P's rating methodology change on insurance hybrids.

U.S. Insurance: $11+bn in Total GE Exposure

Sector Analysis: 26 Nov 2018, 5:14 AM ET - In this note we highlight U.S. insurer exposure to GE. AIG, State Farm, GE’s own insurance operation, Aegon, Lincoln Financial, Aflac, and Prudential are all in the top-10.

Euro Financial Movers: Gourd Times And Bad

Euro Financial Movers: 25 Nov 2018, 9:41 PM ET - It was a quiet week, with Thanksgiving in the US. Deutsche Bank got caught up in the Danske money-laundering scandal, and the BoE brought forward the UK stress test results. Capital optimisation remains at the top of Generali's agenda.

Euro Insurers: 3Q18 Earnings Snapshot

Sector Analysis: 22 Nov 2018, 10:05 PM ET - In this article, we provide a round up of the 3Q18 earnings of European insurers. We also look to highlight key issues and trends observed across the respective peer groups.

Transcript: How will IFRS 17 & 9 Affect Insurers?

Transcript: 20 Nov 2018, 9:16 PM ET - Together with our guest speaker, Mr Darrel Scott - IASB Board Member, we present the takeaways of IFRS 17 & 9 and discuss their consequences on the financial analysis of insurers. The audio link will allow you to listen the webinar.

Webinar: How will IFRS 17 & 9 Affect Insurers?

Announcement: 19 Nov 2018, 9:44 PM ET - CreditSights European insurance sector analysts, Philippe Picagne and Raymond Tam, and guest speaker Mr Darrel Scott, IASB Board Member, will be hosting a webinar on IFRS 17 & 9, today at 3pm GMT.

Euro Financial Movers: Brexit – Kind Of A Big Deal

Euro Financial Movers: 18 Nov 2018, 10:00 PM ET - The UK’s draft EU withdrawal agreement led to uncertainty and spread volatility, while the SRB’s position paper provided some post-Brexit MREL clarity. As IASB looks to defer IFRS 17 to 2022, Munich Re issued its first EUR Tier 2 since 2012

Ageas: 3Q18 From Luxembourg to India

Earnings Note: 14 Nov 2018, 10:23 PM ET - Ageas reported mixed 3Q18 as strong underwriting profitability was dampened by investment impairments. We do not believe Ageas’ acquisition of a 40% stake in an Indian Non-Life insurer will lead to business growth given the lack of control.

Euro Financial Movers: La Vida Loca

Euro Financial Movers: 11 Nov 2018, 10:18 PM ET - 3Q18 results continued, with the Italian banks resilient despite macro-economic pressure whilst the Spanish Supreme Court ruled in favour of banks on mortgage-related taxes. Nat cat claims do not seem to be a solvency issue for reinsurers.

Mapfre: 9M 18 F/X Headwinds

Worth Watching: 08 Nov 2018, 9:28 AM ET - Mapfre released relatively disappointing 9M18 earnings despite lower weather-related claims during the period compared with last year; the devaluation of major currencies where the insurer operates has had major impacts on the company's profita ..

Generali: 9M18 Strong Credit Fundamentals

Earnings Note: 08 Nov 2018, 4:43 AM ET - Generali disclosed strong 9M18 earnings, supporting our view that the insurer benefits from strong credit fundamentals. Our Underperform recommendation stems from continuing market volatility due to on-going political risks in Italy.

Axa: 9M18 Mixed Activity Indicators

Earnings Note: 06 Nov 2018, 10:08 PM ET - Axa released mixed activity indicators for the first nine months of 2018. XL was acquired on 12 September 2018 but will be fully consolidated from 1 October 2018. Nat cat claims are relatively minor at group level.

Euro Financial Movers: Stress Relief

Euro Financial Movers: 04 Nov 2018, 10:23 PM ET - The 2018 Stress Test results show EU banks to be more resilient than in previous exercises, whilst 3Q18 earnings continued. After the 3Q18 reinsurers' results, we are starting to see the impact of the recent nat cat events.

Euro Financial Movers: Earnings Glass Half Empty

Euro Financial Movers: 28 Oct 2018, 10:14 PM ET - 3Q18 earnings season kicked off with the Nordic banks affirming their positions on AML, while DB’s struggles continued, and we summarised Danske’s money-laundering woes. In insurance, we initiated coverage of Phoenix.

Global Insurance Rendez-Vous: Fiduciary Rule Redux

Global Insurance Rendez-Vous: 24 Oct 2018, 10:07 PM ET - The DOL and the SEC are revisiting the fiduciary rule in the near future. The initial version of the rule, produced under the Obama administration, caused significant headaches for insurers and a significant decline in annuity sales.

Phoenix Group: A Wild Animal

Company Analysis: 24 Oct 2018, 10:56 AM ET - We initiate coverage of Phoenix Group at Underperform. It is probably the company to watch for sterling-denominated bond investors, due to its fast expansion and acquisition of the insurance company of SLA.

Euro IG Sector Snapshots: October 2018

Sector Analysis: 22 Oct 2018, 9:31 PM ET - Our updated one page snapshots of the Euro IG sectors.

Euro Financial Movers: A Taxing Week

Euro Financial Movers: 21 Oct 2018, 10:33 PM ET - Italian and Spanish banks struggled due to the prospect of tax rises for Italian banks and an unfavourable court decision for Spanish banks, while money laundering concerns extended to Nordea. Aegon's proposed RT1 has not yet appeared. 

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