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Focused

Beazer Homes: Stock and Debt Buybacks

Earnings Note: 13 Nov 2018, 2:09 PM ET - Beazer announced a $50 mn stock buyback plan and an equal amount to be spent on debt repurchases which sent its stock flying.  BZH is the latest builder to join in on the share buyback parade as homebuilder equities have sold off in 2018.  

Homebuilding: Conference Takeaways

Sector Analysis: 03 Oct 2018, 4:13 AM ET - We present some takeaways from the IMN Real Estate Private Equity Forum on Land & Homebuilding Conference in Las Vegas last week.   
Focused

Beazer Homes: Beaten Up, Not Broken

Earnings Note: 27 Jul 2018, 3:22 PM ET - Beazer debt and equity has been beaten up YTD’18 and the 3Q18 results came up short on order trends and profitability to settle the sell-off.  We like the relative value in the bonds for the risks and reiterate our Outperform rating. 

Big Homebuilders: Going to the Source

Sector Analysis: 27 Jul 2018, 4:49 AM ET - With crosscurrents in the headlines around prices, mortgage rates, changing regional demand, and shifting product growth expectations, it still comes down to builder strategies on price and costs, profit margins, and inventory management. 

May 2018 US Company Recommendation Changes

US Company Recommendation Changes: 31 May 2018, 9:25 PM ET - Our monthly report provides executive summaries for the thirty-nine company recommendation changes made on North American companies during the month of May.
Focused

Beazer Homes: 7% Yields Move to O/P

Earnings Note: 03 May 2018, 4:27 AM ET - BZH continues to make solid operational progress towards increased profitability and balance sheet strength.  Recent spread widening an 7% YTM look attractive versus the balance of risks and we move to Outperform for an improving credit. 
Focused

Homebuilders: Spring Showers or Flowers?

Sector Analysis: 24 Apr 2018, 4:24 AM ET - Homebuilder bonds were under pressure YTD18 as tight spreads, rising interest rates, and Fed tightening renewed fears of a slowdown and pressure on affordability. Fundamentals are still sound with leverage and liquidity in good shape. 

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 
Focused

Beazer Homes: Solid Order Trends

Earnings Note: 07 Feb 2018, 10:24 PM ET - Beazer posted solid new order growth trends in 1Q18 which were up +10.4% YoY.  The company remains on a path of increased investment spending in FY18 to bring new communities online in hopes of gaining additional growth.  
Focused

Beazer Homes: Setting the Stage for Growth

Earnings Note: 15 Nov 2017, 8:50 PM ET - BZH continues to make strides as the company has shored up its balance sheet, extended maturities, and reduced interest expense. The focus now turns to topline growth and earnings through increased investment and community openings.
Focused

Housing and Taxes: Wrong Multiplier Effect

Strategy Analysis: 08 Nov 2017, 3:44 AM ET - As the Congress scrambles to find revenue for majority vote machinations, the clear and direct multiplier effects of housing-related growth is getting tempered to support the theoretical, indirect benefits of corporate and estate tax cuts.
Focused

Beazer Homes: In the Market

Worth Watching: 25 Sep 2017, 9:43 AM ET - Beazer Homes is in the market with a proposed $300 mn offering of 2027 notes.  Proceeds from the offering will  be used to fund a tender offer for up to $225 mn of its 5.75% notes due 2019 and up to $75 mn of its 7.25% notes due 2023.  Beazer i ..
Focused

Beazer Homes: Solid Absorption

Earnings Note: 01 Aug 2017, 9:12 PM ET - BZH 3Q17 results show favorable variances YoY despite lower community count due to limited investment in FY16 to deal with its debt load.  Monthly order absorption was strong up +13.3% YoY in 3Q17. 
Focused

Housing: Mortgages, GSE Reform, Taxes

Strategy Analysis: 27 Jul 2017, 4:48 AM ET - Homebuilders are rolling along near capacity against the backdrop of Washington chaos while awaiting clarity on reform/deregulation in housing finance. The bigger macro variable for mortgage credit is existing homes and not builders.
Focused

US Strategy: Housing, Leverage, Quality

Strategy Analysis: 26 Jul 2017, 6:02 AM ET - We provide a top-down, summary look at the aggregate housing sector balance sheet, asset quality, and default metrics. The much-improved home equity profile of mortgaged properties and supply-demand balance does not signal trouble.

Homebuilding: Starts, Permits Fortify Story

Strategy Analysis: 20 Jul 2017, 5:27 AM ET - June home starts (+8.3%) and permits (+7.4%) rebounded from a weak May as the trajectory for the homebuilding markets remains positive with a handful of builders set to report results next week.  Slow growth remains the rolling trend. 

March 2017: Case-Shiller Home Prices

Worth Watching: 30 May 2017, 1:07 PM ET - March 2017 home prices continued to post gains with the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index continuing to post new highs while the 20-city index remains 5.4% below its peak.   Case-Shiller Home Price indexes continued to post gains in March ..

Homebuilding Snapshot: April Showers…?

Strategy Analysis: 16 May 2017, 1:59 PM ET - Headline April home construction numbers experienced a sequential stall but parsing the multi-family versus single-family and seasonal influences shows  the trajectory for homebuilders remains positive.

US IG Sector Recs: A Very "In Line" April

Sector Weightings: 09 May 2017, 5:22 AM ET - After a weak March the IG index returned to positive territory, but most sectors reported excess return within +/- 5bp of the overall index. We discuss performance and update our sector recommendations. 

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