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Barrick Gold

Barrick Gold is the largest gold miner in the world, producing 5.3 mn ounces of gold in 2017. FY18 gold production guidance of 4.5-5.0 mn oz remains unchanged and continues to be weighted towards 2H18 with expected AISC of $765-$815/oz. Operations are fairly concentrated in geo-politically stable areas of the world, such as North America and Australia. However, roughly 50% of the production profile is dug from riskier regions of the globe. This amount will increase following Randgold Resources acquisition. As of 12/31/17 ABXCN had 64.4 mn ounces of 2P gold reserves based on a gold price assumption of $1,200/oz, down 25% YoY from 86 mn ounces. The decrease is driven by the divestment of 50% of Veladero and 25% of Cerro Casale and the Pascua-Lama reclassification of 14 mn ounces of 2P reserves to M&I after receiving a closure order from the Chilean regulators. (29 Nov 2018)

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Barrick/Newmont: Merging Nevada Gold Assets?

Worth Watching: 06 Nov 2018, 1:42 PM ET - Barrick/Newmont: According to Reuters, the two senior gold miners are in discussions to combine their Nevada operations. No details were provided. Notably, the companies were reportedly in talks on a merger in 2014 as well when gold prices plummet ..
Focused

ABXCN 3Q18: EM Risk Rising

Earnings Note: 25 Oct 2018, 7:47 PM ET - We examine Barrick's 3Q18 results and take a look at the increasing EM risk in the name on the back of the agreed all-share merger with Rangold.

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

Arconic: LBO Rumors Continue

Worth Watching: 09 Oct 2018, 3:37 PM ET - Arconic (Ba2/BBB-/BB+): LBO rumors continue to swirl. According to Reuters, Blackstone, Carlyle, Onex, and Canada Pension have made a joint bid to acquire ARNC. The report also noted that the PE consortium is competing with Apollo in the bidding p ..

FCX: Landmark Grasberg Deal Signing

Worth Watching: 30 Sep 2018, 10:35 PM ET - FCX (Ba2/BB) and Rio Tinto signed a binding agreement to sell their stakes in the Grasberg mine to PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminum (Inalum). The terms are roughly in-line with what was reported in July when the parties signed a nonbinding agreement ( ..
Focused

ABXCN: $6.1 bn Randgold All-Share Merger

Worth Watching: 24 Sep 2018, 10:17 PM ET - ABXCN (Baa2/BBB) agreed to acquire Randgold Resources, an African focused gold miner, in an all-share merger that values the targeted company at roughly $6.1 bn, based on Friday's closing share price. The transaction is the biggest gold deal in th ..
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ABXCN 2Q18: Same Gold Guidance, Fourmile Wows

Earnings Note: 29 Jul 2018, 7:35 PM ET - We take a look at Barrick's 2Q18 results and the remarkable intercepts from exploration drilling at Fourmile.

Coal Producers: Exposure to Potential Retirements

Sector Analysis: 28 Jun 2018, 5:16 AM ET - As part of our continued coverage of coal producer exposure to plant retirements, we have analyzed coal plant data to determine which basins and coal producers have the greatest exposure to unplanned, but at risk, coal plant retirements.  
Focused

Barrick Gold: No Timeline on Tanzania Discussions

Worth Watching: 25 Jun 2018, 9:53 PM ET - Barrick Gold (Baa2/BBB): The gold miner's discussions with Tanzania's government in regards to Acacia's operating rights are progressing (see: Barrick Gold: Tanzania Partnership? 10-20-17). That being said, the negotiation is proving to be more cu ..
Focused

ABXCN 1Q18: Lower Gold Production, Same Guidance

Earnings Note: 24 Apr 2018, 5:24 PM ET - Barrick's gold production continues to trend down while it has had positive exploration results as of late.
Focused

Barrick Gold: S&P Upgrades to BBB

Worth Watching: 22 Mar 2018, 3:42 PM ET - Barrick Gold (Baa2/BBB): S&P upgraded ABXCN's long-term corporate credit and issue-level ratings by one-notch to BBB. The ratings upgrade reflects the improvement in ABXCN's financial risk profile following sustained strength in the company's earn ..

US Strategy: Tariffs as Repricing Event?

Strategy Analysis: 01 Mar 2018, 9:40 PM ET - The market has been building in very low odds of a trade war event, a NAFTA withdrawal, or a significant escalation of tit-for-tat trade retaliations on a broader scale.  The odds-makers just got a fresh load of input.
Focused

Barrick Gold: Moody's Upgrades to Baa2

Worth Watching: 01 Mar 2018, 8:30 PM ET - Barrick Gold (Baa2/BBB-): Moody's upgraded the gold miner's rating by one-notch to Baa2. The ratings action reflects ABXCN's aggressive deleveraging program and the expectation that debt will be further reduced to $5 bn by YE18. The rating agency ..

Tronox: EU Pauses Review of Cristal Merger

HY Note: 28 Feb 2018, 4:52 AM ET - The EU Commission paused its review of the Tronox/Cristal merger until it receives additional information from the two companies.  Although some may be alarmed, it is a fairly regular component of the EU Phase 2 process.

Section 232: The NAFTA Conundrum

Sector Analysis: 26 Feb 2018, 3:42 AM ET - Using Section 232 on Steel/Aluminum could damage supplier chains and cost structures and drive broader inflation.  A tariff gambit in such key industries could undermine the NAFTA negotiations and have immediate effects on risk pricing. 

Metals: U.S. Protectionism Comes to a Head

Sector Analysis: 19 Feb 2018, 11:06 PM ET - Our thoughts on the Commerce Department's proposed Section 232 tariffs/quotas on steel and aluminum imports and the implications on various industries. 
Focused

ABXCN 4Q17: Guiding Lower '18 Production

Earnings Note: 15 Feb 2018, 10:16 PM ET - We examine ABXCN's 4Q17 earnings results. Production is expected to decline this year but the focus for bondholders will be mainly on debt reduction in 2018.

CREDITSIGHTS WEBCAST: EVs, Autos and Metals

Worth Watching: 29 Jan 2018, 6:04 PM ET - CREDITSIGHTS WEBCAST: The mega trend around vehicle electrification is set to meaningfully impact a number of sectors, changing the landscape in a disruptive fashion that will make for significant divergence between the winners and losers. Who wil ..

Metals: Electric Vehicle Revolution

Sector Analysis: 29 Jan 2018, 2:49 PM ET - We discuss the EV market and more specifically EV batteries, supply/demand profiles of the commodities that are found within an EV battery, and our coverage companies that could stand to benefit and lose from the EV revolution. 

Chemicals 2018 Outlook (Part 5): Chlor-Alkali

Sector Outlook: 25 Jan 2018, 10:35 PM ET - With investment in chlor-alkali capacity effectively non-existent and positive manufacturing and construction trends around the globe, we expect operating rates around the world to rise in the medium term. 

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