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US Inflation: Goods Inflation Is Back

Sector Analysis: 12 Dec 2018, 11:57 PM ET - Headline and core indexes both increased in line with expectations.  We highlight the first bought of YoY core goods inflation since 2016 and anecdotes of margin pressure from the most recent Beige Book.

IG European Consumer: 2019 Outlook Opinion Changes

Sector Outlook: 11 Dec 2018, 9:03 PM ET - We set out more on our six opinion changes in European food & beverage/HPC and retail for 2019, plus the initiation of Molson Coors, and give specific bond recommendations in order to execute them. 

US Employment: Modest Gains for Jobs & Wages

Sector Analysis: 09 Dec 2018, 9:01 PM ET - Payrolls and wages both took a step back in November.  We highlight this months employment data and discuss the possibility for manufacturing, construction, and mining employment to lead a 2019 deceleration in jobs growth.

IG European Consumer 2019: Known Unknowns

Sector Outlook: 06 Dec 2018, 10:03 PM ET - We have updated our frameworks for assessing RV in our high grade/crossover European food & bev/HPC and retail names for 2019, the 500th anniversary of the death of Leonardo da Vinci. We also initiate coverage on Molson Coors.

US Income & Spending: Strong Start to 4Q Spending

Strategy Analysis: 30 Nov 2018, 4:37 AM ET - October consumer data delivered above expectations with strong real spending, solid income, and soft inflation.  We dig into the details and highlight strong growth in discretionary spending categories.

Consumer Pulse: Holiday Sales Update & More

Sector Analysis: 28 Nov 2018, 4:11 AM ET - Consumer holiday spending viewed through the e-commerce lens looks to be off to a strong start. The consumer economy has a mix of puts and takes, ranging from rising mortgage rates to falling prices at the pump.

ESG and Automotive: Ratings and Methodology

Sector Analysis: 14 Nov 2018, 10:23 PM ET - In this piece we discuss our ESG Ratings framework as it pertains to the Automotive sector. We use a total of 13 distinct measures to score each of the 3 ESG parameters and then weight them individually.

Undoing a J. Screwing: Retail Fraudulent Transfers

HY Note: 14 Nov 2018, 4:18 AM ET - We examine state and federal bankruptcy fraudulent transfer laws that may allow creditors to recover in the event a debtor has transferred assets to the detriment of creditors, with a particular focus on retail situations. 

US Employment: Almost Full, Keeps Eating

Strategy Analysis: 05 Nov 2018, 5:16 AM ET - Employment growth bounced back in October with a strong 250k print.  Wage growth hit a new high, but its gradual acceleration coupled with the strong job growth trend makes us question what full employment looks like.

US Productivity Is A Small Offset To Labor Costs

Sovereign Analysis: 02 Nov 2018, 5:38 AM ET - We break down 2 separate pieces of 3Q economic data that show while labor costs continue to rise, controlling for productivity growth gives a rosier picture. 

FCA 3Q18: Inching towards IG?

Earnings Note: 30 Oct 2018, 10:10 PM ET - FCA is struggling with the challenging market environment alongside its auto-OEM peers, but continues to perform well and improve its balance sheet strength as it inches closer to IG ratings.

PCE Deflator: Steady in September

Worth Watching: 29 Oct 2018, 10:19 PM ET - PCE Deflator: The September income & outlays report showed another mild month for consumer price gains. The headline all-items index increased by 0.1% MoM, bringing the YoY rate to 2.0%, down from its July peak of 2.3%. The core PCE deflator (e ..

US GDP: Consumers Show Up Again

Strategy Analysis: 29 Oct 2018, 5:06 AM ET - 3Q US GDP beat expectations with a strong performance by the US consumer, inventory growth, and government spending offsetting weak trade, residential investment, and capex.

LKQ 3Q18: Focus on Delevering, New Share Buyback

Earnings Note: 25 Oct 2018, 7:44 PM ET - LKQ reported further margin pressure and lowered its FCF guidance, and announced a share buyback program. But deleveraging the balance sheet still remains a focus at LKQ as well.

China Autos: Slowing Demand Concerns

Sector Analysis: 18 Oct 2018, 7:02 AM ET - September passenger vehicle sales in China marked the third consecutive month of YoY declines. While YTD sales are still up 0.4%, 2018 is already shaping up to be the weakest growth year for the critical China automotive industry. 

September 2018 US Retail Sales

Strategy Analysis: 16 Oct 2018, 5:15 AM ET - September retail sales came up a bit short of expectations, with some weather/storm impact likely a factor. A MoM slowdown in restaurants was a big factor in the miss, although the setback comes after multiple months of above-trend growth.

IG Note: US Autos Underperformance – Long End Pain

IG Note: 15 Oct 2018, 3:49 AM ET - Autos is the worst performing IG Sector in the YTD18 period, with the long end bonds of Ford and GM driving the underperformance. 

US Inflation: Consumer Prices Eke Out Another Gain

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 10:35 PM ET - The September consumer price index report showed weaker price gains than expected for the second consecutive month. 

US Strategy: What to Watch for on 3Q Earning Calls

Strategy Analysis: 11 Oct 2018, 4:37 AM ET - We surveyed our analyst teams for key sector level issues they will be paying close attention to with upcoming third quarter earnings calls beyond the typical sales, margins and earnings guidance. 

US Employment: 3.0% Wage Growth on the Horizon

Strategy Analysis: 05 Oct 2018, 12:24 PM ET - September nonfarm payrolls disappointed on the headline number, but under the surface, the report was solid.  Wages posted another strong gain and are just one tick away from the 3.0% YoY milestone.

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